• Energy Research

Le pâturage représente l'utilisation la plus étendue des terres dans le monde. Pourtant, ses impacts sur les services écosystémiques restent incertains car des interactions omniprésentes entre la pression de pâturage, le climat, les propriétés des sols et la biodiversité peuvent se produire mais n'ont jamais été traitées simultanément. En utilisant une enquête standardisée sur 98 sites sur six continents, nous montrons que les interactions entre la pression du pâturage, le climat, le sol et la biodiversité sont essentielles pour expliquer la fourniture de services écosystémiques fondamentaux dans les zones arides du monde entier. L'augmentation de la pression de pâturage a réduit la prestation de services écosystémiques dans les zones arides plus chaudes et pauvres en espèces, tandis que les effets positifs du pâturage ont été observés dans les zones plus froides et riches en espèces. La prise en compte des interactions entre le pâturage et les facteurs abiotiques et biotiques locaux est essentielle pour comprendre le sort des écosystèmes des terres arides sous le changement climatique et l'augmentation de la pression humaine. El pastoreo representa el uso más extenso de la tierra en todo el mundo. Sin embargo, sus impactos en los servicios ecosistémicos siguen siendo inciertos porque las interacciones generalizadas entre la presión del pastoreo, el clima, las propiedades del suelo y la biodiversidad pueden ocurrir, pero nunca se han abordado simultáneamente. Utilizando una encuesta estandarizada en 98 sitios en seis continentes, mostramos que las interacciones entre la presión del pastoreo, el clima, el suelo y la biodiversidad son fundamentales para explicar la prestación de servicios ecosistémicos fundamentales en las tierras secas de todo el mundo. El aumento de la presión del pastoreo redujo la prestación de servicios ecosistémicos en las tierras secas más cálidas y pobres en especies, mientras que los efectos positivos del pastoreo se observaron en las zonas más frías y ricas en especies. Considerar las interacciones entre el pastoreo y los factores abióticos y bióticos locales es clave para comprender el destino de los ecosistemas de tierras secas bajo el cambio climático y el aumento de la presión humana. Grazing represents the most extensive use of land worldwide. Yet its impacts on ecosystem services remain uncertain because pervasive interactions between grazing pressure, climate, soil properties, and biodiversity may occur but have never been addressed simultaneously. Using a standardized survey at 98 sites across six continents, we show that interactions between grazing pressure, climate, soil, and biodiversity are critical to explain the delivery of fundamental ecosystem services across drylands worldwide. Increasing grazing pressure reduced ecosystem service delivery in warmer and species-poor drylands, whereas positive effects of grazing were observed in colder and species-rich areas. Considering interactions between grazing and local abiotic and biotic factors is key for understanding the fate of dryland ecosystems under climate change and increasing human pressure. يمثل الرعي الاستخدام الأوسع للأراضي في جميع أنحاء العالم. ومع ذلك، لا تزال آثاره على خدمات النظام الإيكولوجي غير مؤكدة لأن التفاعلات المنتشرة بين ضغط الرعي والمناخ وخصائص التربة والتنوع البيولوجي قد تحدث ولكن لم تتم معالجتها أبدًا في وقت واحد. باستخدام مسح موحد في 98 موقعًا في ست قارات، نوضح أن التفاعلات بين ضغط الرعي والمناخ والتربة والتنوع البيولوجي ضرورية لشرح تقديم خدمات النظام الإيكولوجي الأساسية عبر الأراضي الجافة في جميع أنحاء العالم. أدى الضغط المتزايد للرعي إلى تقليل تقديم خدمات النظام الإيكولوجي في الأراضي الجافة الأكثر دفئًا والفقيرة بالأنواع، في حين لوحظت آثار إيجابية للرعي في المناطق الأكثر برودة والغنية بالأنواع. يعتبر النظر في التفاعلات بين الرعي والعوامل المحلية اللاأحيائية والأحيائية أمرًا أساسيًا لفهم مصير النظم الإيكولوجية للأراضي الجافة في ظل تغير المناخ وزيادة الضغط البشري.

Le pâturage représente l'utilisation la plus étendue des terres dans le monde. Pourtant, ses impacts sur les services écosystémiques restent incertains car des interactions omniprésentes entre la pression de pâturage, le climat, les propriétés des sols et la biodiversité peuvent se produire mais n'ont jamais été traitées simultanément. En utilisant une enquête standardisée sur 98 sites sur six continents, nous montrons que les interactions entre la pression du pâturage, le climat, le sol et la biodiversité sont essentielles pour expliquer la fourniture de services écosystémiques fondamentaux dans les zones arides du monde entier. L'augmentation de la pression de pâturage a réduit la prestation de services écosystémiques dans les zones arides plus chaudes et pauvres en espèces, tandis que les effets positifs du pâturage ont été observés dans les zones plus froides et riches en espèces. La prise en compte des interactions entre le pâturage et les facteurs abiotiques et biotiques locaux est essentielle pour comprendre le sort des écosystèmes des terres arides sous le changement climatique et l'augmentation de la pression humaine. El pastoreo representa el uso más extenso de la tierra en todo el mundo. Sin embargo, sus impactos en los servicios ecosistémicos siguen siendo inciertos porque las interacciones generalizadas entre la presión del pastoreo, el clima, las propiedades del suelo y la biodiversidad pueden ocurrir, pero nunca se han abordado simultáneamente. Utilizando una encuesta estandarizada en 98 sitios en seis continentes, mostramos que las interacciones entre la presión del pastoreo, el clima, el suelo y la biodiversidad son fundamentales para explicar la prestación de servicios ecosistémicos fundamentales en las tierras secas de todo el mundo. El aumento de la presión del pastoreo redujo la prestación de servicios ecosistémicos en las tierras secas más cálidas y pobres en especies, mientras que los efectos positivos del pastoreo se observaron en las zonas más frías y ricas en especies. Considerar las interacciones entre el pastoreo y los factores abióticos y bióticos locales es clave para comprender el destino de los ecosistemas de tierras secas bajo el cambio climático y el aumento de la presión humana. Grazing represents the most extensive use of land worldwide. Yet its impacts on ecosystem services remain uncertain because pervasive interactions between grazing pressure, climate, soil properties, and biodiversity may occur but have never been addressed simultaneously. Using a standardized survey at 98 sites across six continents, we show that interactions between grazing pressure, climate, soil, and biodiversity are critical to explain the delivery of fundamental ecosystem services across drylands worldwide. Increasing grazing pressure reduced ecosystem service delivery in warmer and species-poor drylands, whereas positive effects of grazing were observed in colder and species-rich areas. Considering interactions between grazing and local abiotic and biotic factors is key for understanding the fate of dryland ecosystems under climate change and increasing human pressure. يمثل الرعي الاستخدام الأوسع للأراضي في جميع أنحاء العالم. ومع ذلك، لا تزال آثاره على خدمات النظام الإيكولوجي غير مؤكدة لأن التفاعلات المنتشرة بين ضغط الرعي والمناخ وخصائص التربة والتنوع البيولوجي قد تحدث ولكن لم تتم معالجتها أبدًا في وقت واحد. باستخدام مسح موحد في 98 موقعًا في ست قارات، نوضح أن التفاعلات بين ضغط الرعي والمناخ والتربة والتنوع البيولوجي ضرورية لشرح تقديم خدمات النظام الإيكولوجي الأساسية عبر الأراضي الجافة في جميع أنحاء العالم. أدى الضغط المتزايد للرعي إلى تقليل تقديم خدمات النظام الإيكولوجي في الأراضي الجافة الأكثر دفئًا والفقيرة بالأنواع، في حين لوحظت آثار إيجابية للرعي في المناطق الأكثر برودة والغنية بالأنواع. يعتبر النظر في التفاعلات بين الرعي والعوامل المحلية اللاأحيائية والأحيائية أمرًا أساسيًا لفهم مصير النظم الإيكولوجية للأراضي الجافة في ظل تغير المناخ وزيادة الضغط البشري.

AbstractEcosystems are being altered by rapid and interacting changes in natural processes and anthropogenic threats to biodiversity. Uncertainty in historical, current and future effectiveness of actions hampers decisions about how to mitigate changes to prevent biodiversity loss and species extinctions. Research in resource management, agriculture and health indicates that forecasts predicting the effects of near‐term or seasonal environmental conditions on management greatly improve outcomes. Such forecasts help resolve uncertainties about when and how to operationalize management. We reviewed the scientific literature on environmental management to investigate whether near‐term forecasts are developed to inform biodiversity decisions in Australia, a nation with one of the highest recent extinction rates across the globe. We found that forecasts focused on economic objectives (e.g. fisheries management) predict on significantly shorter timelines and answer a broader range of management questions than forecasts focused on biodiversity conservation. We then evaluated scientific literature on the effectiveness of 484 actions to manage seven major terrestrial threats in Australia, to identify opportunities for near‐term forecasts to inform operational conservation decisions. Depending on the action, between 30% and 80% threat management operations experienced near‐term weather impacts on outcomes before, during or after management. Disease control, species translocation/reintroduction and habitat restoration actions were most frequently impacted, and negative impacts such as increased species mortality and reduced recruitment were more likely than positive impacts. Drought or dry conditions, and rainfall, were the most frequently reported weather impacts, indicating that near‐term forecasts predicting the effects of low or excessive rainfall on management outcomes are likely to have the greatest benefits. Across the world, many regions are, like Australia, becoming warmer and drier, or experiencing more extreme rainfall events. Informing conservation decisions with near‐term and seasonal ecological forecasting will be critical to harness uncertainties and lower the risk of threat management failure under global change.

AbstractEcosystems are being altered by rapid and interacting changes in natural processes and anthropogenic threats to biodiversity. Uncertainty in historical, current and future effectiveness of actions hampers decisions about how to mitigate changes to prevent biodiversity loss and species extinctions. Research in resource management, agriculture and health indicates that forecasts predicting the effects of near‐term or seasonal environmental conditions on management greatly improve outcomes. Such forecasts help resolve uncertainties about when and how to operationalize management. We reviewed the scientific literature on environmental management to investigate whether near‐term forecasts are developed to inform biodiversity decisions in Australia, a nation with one of the highest recent extinction rates across the globe. We found that forecasts focused on economic objectives (e.g. fisheries management) predict on significantly shorter timelines and answer a broader range of management questions than forecasts focused on biodiversity conservation. We then evaluated scientific literature on the effectiveness of 484 actions to manage seven major terrestrial threats in Australia, to identify opportunities for near‐term forecasts to inform operational conservation decisions. Depending on the action, between 30% and 80% threat management operations experienced near‐term weather impacts on outcomes before, during or after management. Disease control, species translocation/reintroduction and habitat restoration actions were most frequently impacted, and negative impacts such as increased species mortality and reduced recruitment were more likely than positive impacts. Drought or dry conditions, and rainfall, were the most frequently reported weather impacts, indicating that near‐term forecasts predicting the effects of low or excessive rainfall on management outcomes are likely to have the greatest benefits. Across the world, many regions are, like Australia, becoming warmer and drier, or experiencing more extreme rainfall events. Informing conservation decisions with near‐term and seasonal ecological forecasting will be critical to harness uncertainties and lower the risk of threat management failure under global change.

Australia's 2019-2020 mega-fires were exacerbated by drought, anthropogenic climate change and existing land-use management. Here, using a combination of remotely sensed data and species distribution models, we found these fires burnt ~97,000 km2 of vegetation across southern and eastern Australia, which is considered habitat for 832 species of native vertebrate fauna. Seventy taxa had a substantial proportion (>30%) of habitat impacted; 21 of these were already listed as threatened with extinction. To avoid further species declines, Australia must urgently reassess the extinction vulnerability of fire-impacted species and assist the recovery of populations in both burnt and unburnt areas. Population recovery requires multipronged strategies aimed at ameliorating current and fire-induced threats, including proactively protecting unburnt habitats.

Australia's 2019-2020 mega-fires were exacerbated by drought, anthropogenic climate change and existing land-use management. Here, using a combination of remotely sensed data and species distribution models, we found these fires burnt ~97,000 km2 of vegetation across southern and eastern Australia, which is considered habitat for 832 species of native vertebrate fauna. Seventy taxa had a substantial proportion (>30%) of habitat impacted; 21 of these were already listed as threatened with extinction. To avoid further species declines, Australia must urgently reassess the extinction vulnerability of fire-impacted species and assist the recovery of populations in both burnt and unburnt areas. Population recovery requires multipronged strategies aimed at ameliorating current and fire-induced threats, including proactively protecting unburnt habitats.

Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of short-term (~1 y) drought events—the most common duration of drought—globally. Yet the impact of this intensification of drought on ecosystem functioning remains poorly resolved. This is due in part to the widely disparate approaches ecologists have employed to study drought, variation in the severity and duration of drought studied, and differences among ecosystems in vegetation, edaphic and climatic attributes that can mediate drought impacts. To overcome these problems and better identify the factors that modulate drought responses, we used a coordinated distributed experiment to quantify the impact of short-term drought on grassland and shrubland ecosystems. With a standardized approach, we imposed ~a single year of drought at 100 sites on six continents. Here we show that loss of a foundational ecosystem function—aboveground net primary production (ANPP)—was 60% greater at sites that experienced statistically extreme drought (1-in-100-y event) vs. those sites where drought was nominal (historically more common) in magnitude (35% vs. 21%, respectively). This reduction in a key carbon cycle process with a single year of extreme drought greatly exceeds previously reported losses for grasslands and shrublands. Our global experiment also revealed high variability in drought response but that relative reductions in ANPP were greater in drier ecosystems and those with fewer plant species. Overall, our results demonstrate with unprecedented rigor that the global impacts of projected increases in drought severity have been significantly underestimated and that drier and less diverse sites are likely to be most vulnerable to extreme drought.