• Energy Research

Corn cultivation in the United States is expected to increase to meet demand for ethanol. Nitrogen leaching from fertilized corn fields to the Mississippi–Atchafalaya River system is a primary cause of the bottom-water hypoxia that develops on the continental shelf of the northern Gulf of Mexico each summer. In this study, we combine agricultural land use scenarios with physically based models of terrestrial and aquatic nitrogen to examine the effect of present and future expansion of corn-based ethanol production on nitrogen export by the Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers to the Gulf of Mexico. The results show that the increase in corn cultivation required to meet the goal of 15–36 billion gallons of renewable fuels by the year 2022 suggested by a recent U.S. Senate energy policy would increase the annual average flux of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export by the Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers by 10–34%. Generating 15 billion gallons of corn-based ethanol by the year 2022 will increase the odds that annual DIN export exceeds the target set for reducing hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico to >95%. Examination of extreme mitigation options shows that expanding corn-based ethanol production would make the already difficult challenges of reducing nitrogen export to the Gulf of Mexico and the extent of hypoxia practically impossible without large shifts in food production and agricultural management.

Sustaining ecosystem services (ES), mitigating their tradeoffs and avoiding unfavorable future trajectories are pressing social-environmental challenges that require enhanced understanding of their relationships across scales. Current knowledge of ES relationships is often constrained to one spatial scale or one snapshot in time. In this research, we integrated biophysical modeling with future scenarios to examine changes in relationships among eight ES indicators from 2001–2070 across three spatial scales—grid cell, subwatershed, and watershed. We focused on the Yahara Watershed (Wisconsin) in the Midwestern United States—an exemplar for many urbanizing agricultural landscapes. Relationships among ES indicators changed over time; some relationships exhibited high interannual variations (e.g. drainage vs. food production, nitrate leaching vs. net ecosystem exchange) and even reversed signs over time (e.g. perennial grass production vs. phosphorus yield). Robust patterns were detected for relationships among some regulating services (e.g. soil retention vs. water quality) across three spatial scales, but other relationships lacked simple scaling rules. This was especially true for relationships of food production vs. water quality, and drainage vs. number of days with runoff >10 mm, which differed substantially across spatial scales. Our results also showed that local tradeoffs between food production and water quality do not necessarily scale up, so reducing local tradeoffs may be insufficient to mitigate such tradeoffs at the watershed scale. We further synthesized these cross-scale patterns into a typology of factors that could drive changes in ES relationships across scales: (1) effects of biophysical connections, (2) effects of dominant drivers, (3) combined effects of biophysical linkages and dominant drivers, and (4) artificial scale effects, and concluded with management implications. Our study highlights the importance of taking a dynamic perspective and accounting for spatial scales in monitoring and management to sustain future ES.

AbstractEconomic and policy incentives for biofuel development differ in the USA and the EU, but indicators of environmental sustainability that have emerged from recent scientific literature transcend political boundaries. We classified these indicators according to six dimensions of environmental sustainability that have been previously identified, providing a description of each, and relating them to proposed international standards for advanced biofuels. Advanced biofuel development can be a step toward environmentally sustainable energy if optimal standards for feedstock selection, management, production, and fuel conversion are explicitly targeted. Tools for assessing environmental sustainability exist, but have not yet been put to task in a standardized way for advanced biofuels. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Plant canopy interception of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) drives carbon dioxide (CO2), water and energy cycling in the soil-plant-atmosphere system. Quantifying intercepted PAR requires accurate measurements of total incident PAR above canopies and direct beam and diffuse PAR components. While some regional data sets include these data, e.g. from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program sites, they are not often applicable to local research sites because of the variable nature (spatial and temporal) of environmental variables that influence incoming PAR. Currently available instrumentation that measures diffuse and direct beam radiation separately can be cost prohibitive and require frequent adjustments. Alternatively, generalized empirical relationships that relate atmospheric variables and radiation components can be used but require assumptions that increase the potential for error. Our goal here was to construct and test a cheaper, highly portable instrument alternative that could be used at remote field sites to measure total, diffuse and direct beam PAR for extended time periods without supervision. The apparatus tested here uses a fabricated, solar powered rotating shadowband and other commercially available parts to collect continuous hourly PAR data. Measurements of total incident PAR had nearly a one-to-one relationship with total incident radiation measurements taken at the same research site by an unobstructed point quantum sensor. Additionally, measurements of diffuse PAR compared favorably with modeled estimates from previously published data, but displayed significant differences that were attributed to the important influence of rapidly changing local environmental conditions. The cost of the system is about 50% less than comparable commercially available systems that require periodic, but not continual adjustments. Overall, the data produced using this apparatus indicates that this instrumentation has the potential to support ecological research via a relatively inexpensive method to collect continuous measurements of total, direct beam and diffuse PAR in remote locations.

Ground- and aircraft-based measurements show that the seasonal amplitude of Northern Hemisphere atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations has increased by as much as 50 per cent over the past 50 years. This increase has been linked to changes in temperate, boreal and arctic ecosystem properties and processes such as enhanced photosynthesis, increased heterotrophic respiration, and expansion of woody vegetation. However, the precise causal mechanisms behind the observed changes in atmospheric CO2 seasonality remain unclear. Here we use production statistics and a carbon accounting model to show that increases in agricultural productivity, which have been largely overlooked in previous investigations, explain as much as a quarter of the observed changes in atmospheric CO2 seasonality. Specifically, Northern Hemisphere extratropical maize, wheat, rice, and soybean production grew by 240 per cent between 1961 and 2008, thereby increasing the amount of net carbon uptake by croplands during the Northern Hemisphere growing season by 0.33 petagrams. Maize alone accounts for two-thirds of this change, owing mostly to agricultural intensification within concentrated production zones in the midwestern United States and northern China. Maize, wheat, rice, and soybeans account for about 68 per cent of extratropical dry biomass production, so it is likely that the total impact of increased agricultural production exceeds the amount quantified here.

Livestock husbandry in the U.S. significantly contributes to many environmental problems, including the release of methane, a potent greenhouse gas (GHG). Anaerobic digesters (ADs) break down organic wastes using bacteria that produce methane, which can be collected and combusted to generate electricity. ADs also reduce odors and pathogens that are common with manure storage and the digested manure can be used as a fertilizer. There are relatively few ADs in the U.S., mainly due to their high capital costs. We use the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model to test the effects of a representative U.S. climate stabilization policy on the adoption of ADs which sell electricity and generate methane mitigation credits. Under such policy, ADs become competitive at producing electricity in 2025, when they receive methane reduction credits and electricity from fossil fuels becomes more expensive. We find that ADs have the potential to generate 5.5% of U.S. electricity.

Abstract The influence of climate on winter wheat yields were examined in two important global breadbaskets—the Picardy Region of northern France and the Rostov Oblast of southern Russia. Thirty-year climatologies were established for each region and the magnitude of change between 1973 and 2010 was quantified for a variety of climate variables important to crop development. Using a “first differences” analysis, the aspects of climate that winter wheat yields have been most sensitive to were identified and the impact of changes in these variables on winter wheat yield trends was quantified. A number of aspects of climate have changed at unprecedented rates in the two regions. Between 1973 and 2010, summer precipitation totals decreased by 61% and maximum summer temperatures increased by 4 °C in Rostov, while fall precipitation totals decreased by 9% and maximum spring temperatures increased by 2.4 °C in Picardy. In addition, winter wheat yields were strongly correlated with a number of climate variables, although the most important drivers of yield variability differed between the two regions. May and June average temperatures explained 49% (p