• Energy Research

The source region of the Indus River (SRIR), which is located in the Hindukush, Karakoram and Himalayan (HKH) mountainous range and on the Third Pole (TP), is very sensitive to climate change, especially precipitation changes, because of its multifarious orography and fragile ecosystem. Climate changes in the SRIR also have important impacts on social and economic development, as well as on the ecosystems of the downstream irrigation areas in Pakistan. This paper investigates the changes in precipitation characteristics by dividing the daily precipitation rate into different classes, such as light (0–10 mm), moderate (10.1–25 mm) and heavy precipitation (>25 mm). Daily precipitation data from gauging and non-gauging stations from 1961–2015 are used. The results of the analysis of the annual precipitation and rainy day trends show significant (p < 0.05) increases and decreases, respectively, while light and heavy precipitation show significant decreasing and increasing trends, respectively. The analysis of the precipitation characteristics shows that light precipitation has the highest number of rainy days compared to moderate or heavy precipitation. The analysis of the seasonal precipitation trends shows that only 18 stations have significant increasing trends in winter precipitation, while 27 stations have significant increasing trends in summer precipitation. Both short and long droughts exhibit increasing trends, which indicates that the Indus Basin will suffer from water shortages for agriculture. The results of this study could help policymakers cope with floods and droughts and sustain eco-environmental resources in the study area.

The source region of the Indus River (SRIR), which is located in the Hindukush, Karakoram and Himalayan (HKH) mountainous range and on the Third Pole (TP), is very sensitive to climate change, especially precipitation changes, because of its multifarious orography and fragile ecosystem. Climate changes in the SRIR also have important impacts on social and economic development, as well as on the ecosystems of the downstream irrigation areas in Pakistan. This paper investigates the changes in precipitation characteristics by dividing the daily precipitation rate into different classes, such as light (0–10 mm), moderate (10.1–25 mm) and heavy precipitation (>25 mm). Daily precipitation data from gauging and non-gauging stations from 1961–2015 are used. The results of the analysis of the annual precipitation and rainy day trends show significant (p < 0.05) increases and decreases, respectively, while light and heavy precipitation show significant decreasing and increasing trends, respectively. The analysis of the precipitation characteristics shows that light precipitation has the highest number of rainy days compared to moderate or heavy precipitation. The analysis of the seasonal precipitation trends shows that only 18 stations have significant increasing trends in winter precipitation, while 27 stations have significant increasing trends in summer precipitation. Both short and long droughts exhibit increasing trends, which indicates that the Indus Basin will suffer from water shortages for agriculture. The results of this study could help policymakers cope with floods and droughts and sustain eco-environmental resources in the study area.

AbstractA comprehensive understanding of the regional vegetation responses to long‐term climate change will help to forecast Earth system dynamics. Based on a new well‐dated pollen data set from Kanas Lake and a review on the published pollen records in and around the Altai Mountains, the regional vegetation dynamics and forcing mechanisms are discussed. In the Altai Mountains, the forest optimum occurred during 10–7 ka for the upper forest zone and the tree line decline and/or ecological shifts were caused by climatic cooling from around 7 ka. In the lower forest zone, the forest reached an optimum in the middle Holocene, and then increased openness of the forest, possibly caused by both climate cooling and human activities, took place in the late Holocene. In the lower basins or plains around the Altai Mountains, the development of protograssland or forest benefited from increasing humidity in the middle to late Holocene.

AbstractA comprehensive understanding of the regional vegetation responses to long‐term climate change will help to forecast Earth system dynamics. Based on a new well‐dated pollen data set from Kanas Lake and a review on the published pollen records in and around the Altai Mountains, the regional vegetation dynamics and forcing mechanisms are discussed. In the Altai Mountains, the forest optimum occurred during 10–7 ka for the upper forest zone and the tree line decline and/or ecological shifts were caused by climatic cooling from around 7 ka. In the lower forest zone, the forest reached an optimum in the middle Holocene, and then increased openness of the forest, possibly caused by both climate cooling and human activities, took place in the late Holocene. In the lower basins or plains around the Altai Mountains, the development of protograssland or forest benefited from increasing humidity in the middle to late Holocene.

Abstract This study investigates changes in the hydrologic regime of the Chitral River, Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalayan (HKH) region, Pakistan. Different statistically based methods were used to assess climate change-induced hydrologic alterations that can possibly impact aquatic habitat in the study region. The hydrological model Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) was calibrated, validated, and applied to predict streamflow in the Chitral River basin. The HBV model was forced with the ensemble of four general circulation models under different representative concentration pathway emission scenarios to generate future streamflow under climate change conditions in the basin for the mid-twenty-first century. The results of this study show that hydrologic regimes in the study area, expressed by the magnitude, duration, frequency, timing, and rate of streamflow, are likely to alter in the future. Positive (i.e., with increased frequency) hydrologic alteration is projected for most flow parameters under all scenarios for the 2021–2050 period compared with values observed during the historical period (1976–2005). These hydrologic alterations might have impacts on fish and migratory bird species in the study area. This research can be helpful in providing practical information for more effective water resources and aquatic ecosystem management in the HKH region.

Abstract This study investigates changes in the hydrologic regime of the Chitral River, Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalayan (HKH) region, Pakistan. Different statistically based methods were used to assess climate change-induced hydrologic alterations that can possibly impact aquatic habitat in the study region. The hydrological model Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) was calibrated, validated, and applied to predict streamflow in the Chitral River basin. The HBV model was forced with the ensemble of four general circulation models under different representative concentration pathway emission scenarios to generate future streamflow under climate change conditions in the basin for the mid-twenty-first century. The results of this study show that hydrologic regimes in the study area, expressed by the magnitude, duration, frequency, timing, and rate of streamflow, are likely to alter in the future. Positive (i.e., with increased frequency) hydrologic alteration is projected for most flow parameters under all scenarios for the 2021–2050 period compared with values observed during the historical period (1976–2005). These hydrologic alterations might have impacts on fish and migratory bird species in the study area. This research can be helpful in providing practical information for more effective water resources and aquatic ecosystem management in the HKH region.

AbstractThe Tibetan Plateau (TP) is the largest permafrost distribution zone at high‐altitude in the mid‐latitude region. Climate change has caused significant permafrost degradation on the TP, which has important impacts for the eco‐hydrological processes. In this study, the frost number is utilized to calculate the frost number (F) based on the air freezing/thawing index obtained from the downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) data sets. A novel method is proposed to determine the frost number threshold (Ft) for diagnosing permafrost distribution. Then the simulated permafrost distribution maps are compared with the existing permafrost distribution map, employing the Kappa coefficient as the measure of classification accuracy to identify the optimal Ft. Finally, the permafrost distribution on the TP under different Shared Socio‐economic Pathways (SSP) scenarios are diagnosed with the optimal Ft. Simulation results demonstrate that across all scenarios, the rates of permafrost degradation during the mid‐future period (2040–2060) remain comparable to those observed in the baseline period (2000), ranging from 33% ± 3% to 53% ± 4%. Conversely, during the far‐future (2080–2099), the permafrost degradation rates display significant variation across different scenarios, ranging from 37% ± 4% to 96% ± 3%. The profound impacts of permafrost degradation on the TP are reflected in decreasing trends in soil moisture and runoff, as well as a slower increasing trend in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) compared to other regions, indicating negative impacts on vegetation growth.