• Energy Research

Human-induced climate- and land-use change have been affecting biogeographical and biodiversity patterns for the past two centuries all over the globe, resulting in increased extinction and biotic homogenization rates. High mountain ecosystems are more sensitive to these changes, which have led to physiological and phenological shifts, as well as to ecosystem processes’ deformation. Glacial relicts, such as arctic-alpine taxa, are sensitive indicators of the effects of global warming and their rear-edge populations could include warm-adapted genotypes that might prove—conservation-wise—useful in an era of unprecedented climate regimes. Despite the ongoing thermophilization in European and Mediterranean summits, it still remains unknown how past and future climate-change might affect the distributional patterns of the glacial relict, arctic-alpine taxa occurring in Greece, their European southernmost distributional limit. Using species distribution models, we investigated the impacts of past and future climate changes on the arctic-alpine taxa occurring in Greece and identified the areas comprising arctic-alpine biodiversity hotspots in Greece. Most of these species will be faced with severe range reductions in the near future, despite their innate resilience to a multitude of threats, while the species richness hotspots will experience both altitudinal and latitudinal shifts. Being long-lived perennials means that there might be an extinction-debt present in these taxa, and a prolonged stability phase could be masking the deleterious effects of climate change on them. Several ex situ conservation measures (e.g., seed collection, population augmentation) should be taken to preserve the southernmost populations of these rare arctic-alpine taxa and a better understanding of their population genetics is urgently needed.

Human-induced climate- and land-use change have been affecting biogeographical and biodiversity patterns for the past two centuries all over the globe, resulting in increased extinction and biotic homogenization rates. High mountain ecosystems are more sensitive to these changes, which have led to physiological and phenological shifts, as well as to ecosystem processes’ deformation. Glacial relicts, such as arctic-alpine taxa, are sensitive indicators of the effects of global warming and their rear-edge populations could include warm-adapted genotypes that might prove—conservation-wise—useful in an era of unprecedented climate regimes. Despite the ongoing thermophilization in European and Mediterranean summits, it still remains unknown how past and future climate-change might affect the distributional patterns of the glacial relict, arctic-alpine taxa occurring in Greece, their European southernmost distributional limit. Using species distribution models, we investigated the impacts of past and future climate changes on the arctic-alpine taxa occurring in Greece and identified the areas comprising arctic-alpine biodiversity hotspots in Greece. Most of these species will be faced with severe range reductions in the near future, despite their innate resilience to a multitude of threats, while the species richness hotspots will experience both altitudinal and latitudinal shifts. Being long-lived perennials means that there might be an extinction-debt present in these taxa, and a prolonged stability phase could be masking the deleterious effects of climate change on them. Several ex situ conservation measures (e.g., seed collection, population augmentation) should be taken to preserve the southernmost populations of these rare arctic-alpine taxa and a better understanding of their population genetics is urgently needed.

As the interest in new, natural, sustainable products arises in many fields, wild plants are reconsidered as providers of traditional or innovative applications. The notion of ecosystem services (ES) provides a frame to evaluate their benefits, but is still scarcely applied to endemic floras. The present study reviews the available literature on the ES provided by the 494 taxa endemic to Greece that are present in Peloponnese. Six main categories are isolated: medical, aromatic, folk medicine, antimicrobial, environmental and craftsmanship interests. The literature documents such ES for 24.7% of the endemic taxa, with Lamiaceae, Asteraceae and Boraginaceae as the families with the highest numbers of documented taxa. Spatial hotspots with a high density in taxa providing ES are mapped, while gaps of knowledge on the ES of endemic taxa are highlighted. For the first time, to our knowledge, taxonomic and phylogenetic bounds between taxa are exploited as a base to explore potential properties for endemic taxa. The basis for the development of predictive tools utilizing literature review datasets is set. Final outcomes also provide robust scientific evidence to support decision and policy making for the sustainable use and management of rural areas. The development of cultivation areas for threatened taxa of interest is suggested as a potent conservation measure, by selecting fields according to habitat suitability models.

As the interest in new, natural, sustainable products arises in many fields, wild plants are reconsidered as providers of traditional or innovative applications. The notion of ecosystem services (ES) provides a frame to evaluate their benefits, but is still scarcely applied to endemic floras. The present study reviews the available literature on the ES provided by the 494 taxa endemic to Greece that are present in Peloponnese. Six main categories are isolated: medical, aromatic, folk medicine, antimicrobial, environmental and craftsmanship interests. The literature documents such ES for 24.7% of the endemic taxa, with Lamiaceae, Asteraceae and Boraginaceae as the families with the highest numbers of documented taxa. Spatial hotspots with a high density in taxa providing ES are mapped, while gaps of knowledge on the ES of endemic taxa are highlighted. For the first time, to our knowledge, taxonomic and phylogenetic bounds between taxa are exploited as a base to explore potential properties for endemic taxa. The basis for the development of predictive tools utilizing literature review datasets is set. Final outcomes also provide robust scientific evidence to support decision and policy making for the sustainable use and management of rural areas. The development of cultivation areas for threatened taxa of interest is suggested as a potent conservation measure, by selecting fields according to habitat suitability models.

Bioclimate alteration unquestionably poses a current but also a potential future threat to natural and agricultural ecosystems and their services. In this scope, the present and future bioclimatic footprint of the Central European territory is investigated and presented. For the first time, an ultrahigh spatial resolution (<250 m) of the de Martonne index is analyzed over the entire area, as well as for individual countries (Austria, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia). The research is performed for the reference period (1981–2010) and for three time series (2011–2040; 2041–2070; 2071–2100) under two emissions scenarios (SSP370 and SSP585) for the determination of the potential short-term and distant future bioclimatic change trends. Projection results reveal higher xerothermic trends over the lowland agricultural areas mostly in 2071–2100 and under the extreme SSP585, with the classes’ spatial distributions going from 0.0% to 2.3% for the semi-dry class and from 0.0% to 30.1% for the presiding Mediterranean class. Additionally, more than half of the territory’s agricultural surface area (53.4%) is foreseen to be depending on supplementary irrigation by 2100. Overall, more intense dry thermal conditions are expected to impact the agricultural areas of the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary with the latter emerging as particularly vulnerable.

Bioclimate alteration unquestionably poses a current but also a potential future threat to natural and agricultural ecosystems and their services. In this scope, the present and future bioclimatic footprint of the Central European territory is investigated and presented. For the first time, an ultrahigh spatial resolution (<250 m) of the de Martonne index is analyzed over the entire area, as well as for individual countries (Austria, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia). The research is performed for the reference period (1981–2010) and for three time series (2011–2040; 2041–2070; 2071–2100) under two emissions scenarios (SSP370 and SSP585) for the determination of the potential short-term and distant future bioclimatic change trends. Projection results reveal higher xerothermic trends over the lowland agricultural areas mostly in 2071–2100 and under the extreme SSP585, with the classes’ spatial distributions going from 0.0% to 2.3% for the semi-dry class and from 0.0% to 30.1% for the presiding Mediterranean class. Additionally, more than half of the territory’s agricultural surface area (53.4%) is foreseen to be depending on supplementary irrigation by 2100. Overall, more intense dry thermal conditions are expected to impact the agricultural areas of the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary with the latter emerging as particularly vulnerable.

Greece, along with most of the countries in the Mediterranean basin, is historically linked with forest fires. Wildfires have always occurred, are happening, and will continue to occur, causing serious problems regarding the sustainability of natural resources. Their frequency, however, has shown a noticeable increase during the last decades; according to the most recent projections, the broader Mediterranean region will face significant challenges in the future within the context of climate change. Despite the historical experience of forest fires in Greece, a standardized and up-to-date system for identifying and prioritizing burnt areas, in relation to their restoration needs, has not yet been developed and adopted. In this paper, a systematic methodological approach for decision-making regarding the identification and prioritization of active restoration/reforestation of burnt areas is proposed. This approach is based on critical parameters, such as the regeneration potential of the affected forest species, the “fire history”, and the slope of the affected areas. The proposed methodological approach can be applied in all burnt natural areas in the country in the future, as well as in other areas of the Mediterranean region. The fire impact on Natura 2000 sites is also assessed to highlight the importance of restoration and conservation needs in protected areas. The results from case studies are presented, and future steps and policy recommendations for the post-fire management of natural ecosystems are discussed to enable the sustainable management of forest resources in the burnt areas.

Greece, along with most of the countries in the Mediterranean basin, is historically linked with forest fires. Wildfires have always occurred, are happening, and will continue to occur, causing serious problems regarding the sustainability of natural resources. Their frequency, however, has shown a noticeable increase during the last decades; according to the most recent projections, the broader Mediterranean region will face significant challenges in the future within the context of climate change. Despite the historical experience of forest fires in Greece, a standardized and up-to-date system for identifying and prioritizing burnt areas, in relation to their restoration needs, has not yet been developed and adopted. In this paper, a systematic methodological approach for decision-making regarding the identification and prioritization of active restoration/reforestation of burnt areas is proposed. This approach is based on critical parameters, such as the regeneration potential of the affected forest species, the “fire history”, and the slope of the affected areas. The proposed methodological approach can be applied in all burnt natural areas in the country in the future, as well as in other areas of the Mediterranean region. The fire impact on Natura 2000 sites is also assessed to highlight the importance of restoration and conservation needs in protected areas. The results from case studies are presented, and future steps and policy recommendations for the post-fire management of natural ecosystems are discussed to enable the sustainable management of forest resources in the burnt areas.