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description Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Conference object , Journal , Other literature type 2020 SwedenPublisher:MDPI AG Funded by:EC | AdaptEconIIEC| AdaptEconIIAuthors: Marie K. Schellens; Salim Belyazid;doi: 10.3390/su12166574
The integrated character of the sustainable development goals in Agenda 2030, as well as research in environmental security, flag that sustainable peace requires sustainable and conflict-sensitive natural resource use. The precise relationship between the risk for violent conflict and natural resources remains contested because of the interplay with socio-economic variables. This paper aims to improve the understanding of natural resources’ role in the risk of violent conflicts by accounting for complex interactions with socio-economic conditions. Conflict data was analysed with machine learning techniques, which can account for complex patterns, such as variable interactions. More commonly used logistic regression models are compared with neural network models and random forest models. The results indicate that a country’s natural resource features are important predictors of its risk for violent conflict and that they interact with socio-economic conditions. Based on these empirical results and the existing literature, we interpret that natural resources can be root causes of violent intrastate conflict, and that signals from natural resources leading to conflict risk are reflected in and influenced by interacting socio-economic conditions. More specifically, the results show that variables such as access to water and food security are important predictors of conflict, while resource rents and oil and ore exports are relatively less important than other natural resource variables, contrasting what prior research has suggested. Given the potential of natural resource features to act as an early warning for violent conflict, we argue that natural resources should be included in conflict risk models for conflict prevention.
Sustainability arrow_drop_down SustainabilityOther literature type . 2020License: CC BYFull-Text: http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/16/6574/pdfData sources: Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing InstitutePublikationer från Stockholms universitetArticle . 2020 . Peer-reviewedData sources: Publikationer från Stockholms universitetDigitala Vetenskapliga Arkivet - Academic Archive On-lineArticle . 2020 . Peer-reviewedadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.3390/su12166574&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen gold 4 citations 4 popularity Top 10% influence Average impulse Average Powered by BIP!
more_vert Sustainability arrow_drop_down SustainabilityOther literature type . 2020License: CC BYFull-Text: http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/16/6574/pdfData sources: Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing InstitutePublikationer från Stockholms universitetArticle . 2020 . Peer-reviewedData sources: Publikationer från Stockholms universitetDigitala Vetenskapliga Arkivet - Academic Archive On-lineArticle . 2020 . Peer-reviewedadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.3390/su12166574&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Conference object , Journal , Other literature type 2018Publisher:MDPI AG Funded by:EC | AdaptEconIIEC| AdaptEconIIAuthors: Marie K. Schellens; Johanna Gisladottir;Studies on critical natural resources have grown in number over the last decade out of concern for resource availability and its potential impacts. Nonetheless, only a handful of studies explicitly define criticality for natural resources. Through a systematic literature review, we identified four main perspectives in the descriptions of critical natural resources: (1) economic importance is overemphasized at the expense of sociocultural and ecosystem support functions of natural resources; (2) a Western perspective dominates the research discourse; (3) apart from the field of economics, the debate lacks input from social sciences; and (4), non-renewable resources are overrepresented compared to renewables. Based on the current discourse and its apparent inclinations, we propose a new definition of criticality for natural resources aligned with risk theory. We argue for the need to balance out the perspectives described above to provide decision-makers with impartial information for the sustainable management of natural resources.
Resources arrow_drop_down ResourcesOther literature type . 2018License: CC BYFull-Text: http://www.mdpi.com/2079-9276/7/4/79/pdfData sources: Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing InstituteResourcesArticleLicense: CC BYFull-Text: http://www.mdpi.com/2079-9276/7/4/79/pdfData sources: Sygmaadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.3390/resources7040079&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess Routesgold 8 citations 8 popularity Top 10% influence Average impulse Average Powered by BIP!
more_vert Resources arrow_drop_down ResourcesOther literature type . 2018License: CC BYFull-Text: http://www.mdpi.com/2079-9276/7/4/79/pdfData sources: Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing InstituteResourcesArticleLicense: CC BYFull-Text: http://www.mdpi.com/2079-9276/7/4/79/pdfData sources: Sygmaadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.3390/resources7040079&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu
description Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Conference object , Journal , Other literature type 2020 SwedenPublisher:MDPI AG Funded by:EC | AdaptEconIIEC| AdaptEconIIAuthors: Marie K. Schellens; Salim Belyazid;doi: 10.3390/su12166574
The integrated character of the sustainable development goals in Agenda 2030, as well as research in environmental security, flag that sustainable peace requires sustainable and conflict-sensitive natural resource use. The precise relationship between the risk for violent conflict and natural resources remains contested because of the interplay with socio-economic variables. This paper aims to improve the understanding of natural resources’ role in the risk of violent conflicts by accounting for complex interactions with socio-economic conditions. Conflict data was analysed with machine learning techniques, which can account for complex patterns, such as variable interactions. More commonly used logistic regression models are compared with neural network models and random forest models. The results indicate that a country’s natural resource features are important predictors of its risk for violent conflict and that they interact with socio-economic conditions. Based on these empirical results and the existing literature, we interpret that natural resources can be root causes of violent intrastate conflict, and that signals from natural resources leading to conflict risk are reflected in and influenced by interacting socio-economic conditions. More specifically, the results show that variables such as access to water and food security are important predictors of conflict, while resource rents and oil and ore exports are relatively less important than other natural resource variables, contrasting what prior research has suggested. Given the potential of natural resource features to act as an early warning for violent conflict, we argue that natural resources should be included in conflict risk models for conflict prevention.
Sustainability arrow_drop_down SustainabilityOther literature type . 2020License: CC BYFull-Text: http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/16/6574/pdfData sources: Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing InstitutePublikationer från Stockholms universitetArticle . 2020 . Peer-reviewedData sources: Publikationer från Stockholms universitetDigitala Vetenskapliga Arkivet - Academic Archive On-lineArticle . 2020 . Peer-reviewedadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.3390/su12166574&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen gold 4 citations 4 popularity Top 10% influence Average impulse Average Powered by BIP!
more_vert Sustainability arrow_drop_down SustainabilityOther literature type . 2020License: CC BYFull-Text: http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/16/6574/pdfData sources: Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing InstitutePublikationer från Stockholms universitetArticle . 2020 . Peer-reviewedData sources: Publikationer från Stockholms universitetDigitala Vetenskapliga Arkivet - Academic Archive On-lineArticle . 2020 . Peer-reviewedadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.3390/su12166574&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Conference object , Journal , Other literature type 2018Publisher:MDPI AG Funded by:EC | AdaptEconIIEC| AdaptEconIIAuthors: Marie K. Schellens; Johanna Gisladottir;Studies on critical natural resources have grown in number over the last decade out of concern for resource availability and its potential impacts. Nonetheless, only a handful of studies explicitly define criticality for natural resources. Through a systematic literature review, we identified four main perspectives in the descriptions of critical natural resources: (1) economic importance is overemphasized at the expense of sociocultural and ecosystem support functions of natural resources; (2) a Western perspective dominates the research discourse; (3) apart from the field of economics, the debate lacks input from social sciences; and (4), non-renewable resources are overrepresented compared to renewables. Based on the current discourse and its apparent inclinations, we propose a new definition of criticality for natural resources aligned with risk theory. We argue for the need to balance out the perspectives described above to provide decision-makers with impartial information for the sustainable management of natural resources.
Resources arrow_drop_down ResourcesOther literature type . 2018License: CC BYFull-Text: http://www.mdpi.com/2079-9276/7/4/79/pdfData sources: Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing InstituteResourcesArticleLicense: CC BYFull-Text: http://www.mdpi.com/2079-9276/7/4/79/pdfData sources: Sygmaadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.3390/resources7040079&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess Routesgold 8 citations 8 popularity Top 10% influence Average impulse Average Powered by BIP!
more_vert Resources arrow_drop_down ResourcesOther literature type . 2018License: CC BYFull-Text: http://www.mdpi.com/2079-9276/7/4/79/pdfData sources: Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing InstituteResourcesArticleLicense: CC BYFull-Text: http://www.mdpi.com/2079-9276/7/4/79/pdfData sources: Sygmaadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.3390/resources7040079&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu