• Energy Research
• 11. Sustainability close

Abstract This study aims to provide a detailed spatial and temporal characterization of China’s wind and solar energy resource potential. Quantifying this potential is necessary to identify pathways to achieve a deep decarbonization of its electric power system as this nation pursues carbon neutrality by 2060. This study identifies and characterizes sites suitable for onshore wind and ground-mounted solar PV deployment, quantifies their electricity generation potential, and assesses their spatial heterogeneity across the country and temporal variability throughout the seasons. Resource potential estimates are obtained by combining the latest data with high spatiotemporal resolution with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis that compiles information on wind and solar energy resources, land use, surface elevation and slope, and geomorphology. Results show that China’s vast resource potential for wind and solar is enough to provide one-and-a-half times 2050′s expected electricity demand. Results also demonstrate that China’s resource-rich areas do not correspond to demand centers, except for provinces like Shandong, Hebei, and Jiangsu, which have high electricity demand and renewable potential. The seasonal patterns show that China should develop wind and solar energy simultaneously, to exploit wind’s highest potential during winter and early spring, and solar’s higher production during late spring and summer. These findings shed light on the sites that should be prioritized for renewable development and the need to expand power transmission capacity connecting energy-rich areas with load centers, and energy storage capacity and flexible resources to balance variable renewable output with load.

Abstract As part of the inputs for of the Colombian Strategy for Low-Carbon Development (ECBDC), the Studies Group for Urban and Regional Sustainability (SUR) of Universidad de los Andes, working with a group of national experts in the transport sector, developed a model to estimate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions generated by that sector in 2010. National emissions were projected for the period 2010-2040, using Kaya factors, and there were assessments of a range of options to mitigate emissions through a cost-effectiveness analysis. A marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) was generated, identifying potential mitigation of 290 million tons accumulated up to 2040. An estimate was made of the uncertainty associated with the input parameters for the model mentioned. The statistical properties were estimated based on technical and scientific literature and the IPCC recommendations. The intention was to identify the stochastic condition of the initially deterministic model. For this purpose, random values were generated based on Monte Carlo simulations, and a sensitivity analysis was conducted to find the variables with the greatest influence on the final results.

Abstract On-board real-time emission experiments were conducted on 78 light-duty vehicles in Bogota. Direct emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and hydrocarbons (HC) were measured. The relationship between such emissions and vehicle specific power (VSP) was established. The experimental matrix included both gasoline-powered and retrofit dual fuel (gasoline–natural gas) vehicles. The results confirm that VSP is an appropriate metric to obtain correlations between driving patterns and air pollutant emissions. Ninety-five percent of the time vehicles in Bogota operate in a VSP between −15.2 and 17.7 kW ton−1, and 50% of the time they operate between −2.9 and 1.2 kW ton−1, representing low engine-load and near-idling conditions, respectively. When engines are subjected to higher loads, pollutant emissions increase significantly. This demonstrates the relevance of reviewing smog check programs and command-and-control measures in Latin America, which are widely based on static (i.e., idling) emissions testing. The effect of different driving patterns on the city’s emissions inventory was determined using VSP and numerical simulations. For example, improving vehicle flow and reducing sudden and frequent accelerations could curb annual emissions in Bogota by up to 12% for CO2, 13% for CO and HC, and 24% for NOx. This also represents possible fuel consumption savings of between 35 and 85 million gallons per year and total potential economic benefits of up to 1400 million dollars per year.