• Energy Research

Common-pool resources require a dose of self-restraint to ensure sustainable exploitation, but this has often proven elusive in practice. To understand why, and characterize behaviours towards ecological systems in general, we devised a social dilemma experiment in which participants gain profit from harvesting a virtual forest vulnerable to overexploitation. Out of 16 Chinese and 15 Spanish player groups, only one group from each country converged to the forest’s maximum sustainable yield. All other groups were overzealous, with about half of them surpassing or on the way to surpass a no-recovery threshold. Computational–statistical analyses attribute such outcomes to an interplay between three prominent player behaviours, two of which are subject to decision-making ‘inertia’ that causes near blindness to the resource state. These behaviours, being equally pervasive among players from both nations, imply that the commons fall victim to behavioural patterns robust to confounding factors such as age, education and culture.

Species conservation and fisheries management require approaches that relate environmental conditions to population-level dynamics, especially because environmental conditions shift due to climate change. We combined an individual-level physiological model and a conceptually simple matrix population model to develop a novel tool that relates environmental change to population dynamics, and used this tool to analyze effects of environmental changes and early-life stochasticity on Pacific bluefin tuna (PBT) population growth. We found that (i) currently, PBT population experiences a positive growth rate, (ii) somewhat surprisingly, stochasticity in early life survival increases this growth rate, (iii) sexual maturation age strongly depends on food and temperature, (iv) current fishing pressure, though high, is tolerable as long as the environment is such that PBT mature in less than 9 years of age (maturation age of up to 10 is possible in some environments), (v) PBT population growth rate is much more susceptible to changes in juvenile survival than changes in total reproductive output or adult survival. These results suggest that, to be effective, fishing regulations need to (i) focus on smaller tuna (i.e., juveniles and young adults), and (ii) mitigate adverse effects of climate change by taking into the account how future environments may affect the population growth.

Understanding the relationship between the environmental conditions and life-history traits (such as growth, reproduction, and size at specific life stages) is important for understanding the population dynamics of a species and for constructing adaptable, relevant, and efficient conservation measures. For the endangered loggerhead turtle, characterizing effects of environmental conditions on the life-history traits is complicated by this species’ longevity, global distribution, and migratory way of life. Two significant environmental factors – temperature and available food – often account for most of observed intra-population variability in growth and reproduction rates, suggesting that those two factors determine the biological responses of an individual. Adopting this hypothesis, we simulate a range of the two environmental factors to quantify effects of changes in temperature and food availability on an individual's physiology (energy investment into processes such as growth, maturation, and reproduction) and the resulting life-history traits. To represent an individual, we use a previously developed mechanistic dynamic energy budget (DEB) model for loggerhead turtles. DEB models rely on one of the empirically best validated general ecological theories, which captures rules of energy acquisition and utilization. We found that the ultimate size (length and mass) is primarily affected by food availability, whereas growth and maturation are primarily affected by temperature whilst also showing positive correlation with available food. Reproduction increases with both food availability and temperature because food availability determines energy investment into egg production, and temperature affects the rate of related processes (such as vitellogenesis). Length at puberty varies between simulated scenarios by only a small proportion, suggesting that inter-individual variability plays a larger role for length at puberty than the environmental factors do.

AbstractA core challenge in global change biology is to predict how species will respond to future environmental change and to manage these responses. To make such predictions and management actions robust to novel futures, we need to accurately characterize how organisms experience their environments and the biological mechanisms by which they respond. All organisms are thermodynamically connected to their environments through the exchange of heat and water at fine spatial and temporal scales and this exchange can be captured with biophysical models. Although mechanistic models based on biophysical ecology have a long history of development and application, their use in global change biology remains limited despite their enormous promise and increasingly accessible software. We contend that greater understanding and training in the theory and methods of biophysical ecology is vital to expand their application. Our review shows how biophysical models can be implemented to understand and predict climate change impacts on species' behavior, phenology, survival, distribution, and abundance. It also illustrates the types of outputs that can be generated, and the data inputs required for different implementations. Examples range from simple calculations of body temperature at a particular site and time, to more complex analyses of species' distribution limits based on projected energy and water balances, accounting for behavior and phenology. We outline challenges that currently limit the widespread application of biophysical models relating to data availability, training, and the lack of common software ecosystems. We also discuss progress and future developments that could allow these models to be applied to many species across large spatial extents and timeframes. Finally, we highlight how biophysical models are uniquely suited to solve global change biology problems that involve predicting and interpreting responses to environmental variability and extremes, multiple or shifting constraints, and novel abiotic or biotic environments.

Population of loggerhead turtles nesting in the Mediterranean Sea has probably evolved from the North Atlantic (NA) population, but is geographically and genetically distinct. We aggregated previously published and new unpublished data, and took two approaches to comparing these populations: an empirical one based on statistical analyses of morphological data, and a physiological one based on a Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model. We then analyzed causes of faster growth and maturation, but smaller size at puberty and ultimate size of the Mediterranean (MED) loggerhead turtles relative to their NA conspecifics. The empirical analysis shows that MED eggs, hatchlings, and nesting adults are consistently smaller in terms of length and mass. The physiological approach suggests physiological adaptations of the MED population to higher salinity and scarcer food availability. In particular, these adaptations include an increase in somatic maintenance needs, and a decrease in energy investment to reach and maintain sexual maturity. Our study therefore offers a mechanistic underpinning of previously observed but unexplained life-history traits, and showcases an application of DEB theory as a tool for comparative analysis of two distinct populations of the same species.

Recently, the abundance of young Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) tripled in the northwestern Mediterranean following effective management measures. We investigated whether its predation on sardine (Sardina pilchardus) and anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) could explain their concurrent size and biomass decline, which caused a fishery crisis. Combining the observed diet composition of bluefin tuna, their modelled daily energy requirements, their population size, and the abundance of prey species in the area, we calculated the proportion of the prey populations that were consumed by bluefin tuna annually over 2011–2013. To assess whether tuna could alter the size structure of the three small pelagic fish populations (anchovy, sardine, and sprat (Sprattus sprattus)), the size distributions of the consumed prey species were compared with those of the wild populations. We estimated that the annual consumption of small pelagic fish by bluefin tuna is less than 2% of the abundance of these populations. Furthermore, size selectivity patterns were not observed. We thus concluded that tuna predation is unlikely to be the main cause of major changes in the small pelagic fish populations from this area.

Significance Collective risks trigger social dilemmas that require balancing selfish interests and common good. One important example is mitigating climate change, wherein without sufficient investments, worldwide negative consequences become increasingly likely. To study the social aspects of this problem, we organized a game experiment that reveals how group size, communication, and behavioral type drive prosocial action. We find that communicating sentiment and outlook leads to more positive outcomes, even among culturally heterogeneous groups. Although genuine free riders remain unfazed by communication, prosocial players better endure accumulated investment deficits, and thus fight off inaction as the failure looms. This suggests that climate negotiations may achieve more by leveraging existing goodwill than persuading skeptics to act.