• Energy Research

The carbon emission trading scheme (ETS) is an essential policy tool for accomplishing Chinese carbon targets. Based on the Chinese provincial panel data from 2003 to 2019, an empirical study is conducted to measure the effects of carbon emission reduction and spatial spillover effect by adopting the difference-in-differences (DID) model and spatial difference-in-differences (SDID) model. The research findings show that: 1) The ETS effectively reduced the total carbon emissions as well as emissions from coal consumption; 2) such effects come mainly from the reduction of coal consumption and the optimization of energy structure, rather than from technological innovation and optimization of industrial structure in the pilot regions; and 3) the ETS pilot regions have a positive spatial spillover effect on non-pilot regions, indicating the acceleration effect for carbon emission reduction. Geographic proximity makes the spillover effect decrease due to carbon leakage.

This study analyzes the impacts of different drivers on the pricing of EU carbon futures in various periods by using the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model. The results indicate that: (1) The relationships between oil, gas, electricity, stock prices and carbon price have significant time-varying characteristics and those relationships have experienced an inversion in 2016. This might be due to the pressure of achieving the “EU 20-20-20” targets and the signing of the Paris Agreement as well as the fine-tuning of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). (2) The impacts of different drivers on carbon price are various. The carbon price is more sensitive to oil, gas, electricity prices as well as the stock price before the inversion in the short-term, while its response to changes in the stock price after the inversion is more obvious in the mid-long term. (3) After the signing of the Paris Agreement in the second quarter of 2016, the carbon price has a greater response to changes in its drivers. The oil price’s impact on carbon price became the most significant one among them.

Cet article a examiné les impacts de la politique de contrôle de la consommation totale d'énergie et des plans d'allocation des quotas énergétiques sur l'économie régionale de la Chine. Cette recherche a analysé les influences de différents plans d'allocation de quotas énergétiques avec divers poids d'équité et d'efficacité, en utilisant un modèle d'équilibre général calculable dynamique (ECG) pour 30 régions administratives au niveau de la province. Les résultats montrent que le plan d'allocation axé sur l'efficacité coûte le moins cher, mais élargit l'écart de revenu régional, tandis que les résultats du plan d'allocation axé sur l'équité et du plan d'allocation axé sur les objectifs d'intensité sont similaires et sont tous deux opposés au résultat du plan d'allocation axé sur l'efficacité. Le plan présentant un équilibre entre efficacité et équité est plus réalisable, ce qui peut entraîner des pertes économiques régionales uniformes et empêcher une migration interrégionale massive des industries liées à l'énergie. En outre, les effets d'éventuelles améliorations induites de la technologie énergétique dans différents plans d'allocation de quotas énergétiques ont été étudiés. Les améliorations induites de la technologie énergétique peuvent ajouter plus de faisabilité à tous les plans d'allocation dans le cadre de la politique de contrôle de la consommation totale d'énergie. À long terme, si la politique de contrôle total de la consommation d'énergie se poursuit et que davantage d'outils basés sur le marché sont mis en œuvre pour allouer des quotas énergétiques, les conséquences positives des améliorations induites de la technologie énergétique deviendront beaucoup plus évidentes. Este documento examinó los impactos de la política de control del consumo total de energía y los planes de asignación de cuotas de energía en la economía regional de China. Esta investigación analizó las influencias de diferentes planes de asignación de cuotas energéticas con diversos pesos de equidad y eficiencia, utilizando un modelo de equilibrio general computable dinámico (CGE) para 30 regiones administrativas a nivel provincial. Los resultados muestran que el plan de asignación de eficiencia primero cuesta menos, pero amplía la brecha de ingresos regional, mientras que los resultados del plan de asignación de equidad primero y el plan de asignación basado en objetivos de intensidad son similares y son opuestos al resultado del plan de asignación de eficiencia primero. El plan que ofrece un equilibrio entre eficiencia y equidad es más factible, lo que puede generar pérdidas económicas regionales de manera uniforme y evitar la migración interregional masiva de industrias relacionadas con la energía. Además, se estudiaron los efectos de posibles mejoras tecnológicas de energía inducida en diferentes planes de asignación de cuotas energéticas. Las mejoras en la tecnología energética inducida pueden añadir más viabilidad a todos los planes de asignación en el marco de la política de control del consumo total de energía. A largo plazo, si la política de control del consumo total de energía continúa y se implementan más herramientas basadas en el mercado para asignar cuotas de energía, las consecuencias positivas de las mejoras en la tecnología de energía inducida serán mucho más obvias. This paper examined the impacts of the total energy consumption control policy and energy quota allocation plans on China's regional economy. This research analyzed the influences of different energy quota allocation plans with various weights of equity and efficiency, using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for 30 province-level administrative regions. The results show that the efficiency-first allocation plan costs the least but widens regional income gap, whereas the outcomes of equity-first allocation plan and intensity target-based allocation plan are similar and are both opposite to the efficiency-first allocation plan' outcome. The plan featuring a balance between efficiency and equity is more feasible, which can bring regional economic losses evenly and prevent massive interregional migration of energy-related industries. Furthermore, the effects of possible induced energy technology improvements in different energy quota allocation plans were studied. Induced energy technology improvements can add more feasibility to all allocation plans under the total energy consumption control policy. In the long term, if the policy of the total energy consumption control continues and more market-based tools are implemented to allocate energy quotas, the positive consequences of induced energy technology improvements will become much more obvious. تناولت هذه الورقة آثار سياسة التحكم في إجمالي استهلاك الطاقة وخطط تخصيص حصص الطاقة على الاقتصاد الإقليمي للصين. حلل هذا البحث تأثيرات خطط تخصيص حصص الطاقة المختلفة بأوزان مختلفة من الإنصاف والكفاءة، باستخدام نموذج التوازن العام الديناميكي القابل للحساب (CGE) لـ 30 منطقة إدارية على مستوى المقاطعة. وتظهر النتائج أن خطة التخصيص القائمة على الكفاءة هي الأقل تكلفة ولكنها توسع فجوة الدخل الإقليمية، في حين أن نتائج خطة التخصيص القائمة على الإنصاف أولاً وخطة التخصيص القائمة على الكثافة متشابهة وكلاهما يتعارض مع نتائج خطة التخصيص القائمة على الكفاءة أولاً. إن الخطة التي تتميز بالتوازن بين الكفاءة والإنصاف أكثر جدوى، والتي يمكن أن تحقق خسائر اقتصادية إقليمية بالتساوي وتمنع الهجرة الجماعية بين الأقاليم للصناعات المتعلقة بالطاقة. علاوة على ذلك، تمت دراسة آثار التحسينات المحتملة لتكنولوجيا الطاقة المستحثة في مختلف خطط تخصيص حصص الطاقة. يمكن أن تضيف تحسينات تكنولوجيا الطاقة المستحثة المزيد من الجدوى إلى جميع خطط التخصيص في إطار سياسة التحكم في إجمالي استهلاك الطاقة. على المدى الطويل، إذا استمرت سياسة التحكم الكلي في استهلاك الطاقة وتم تنفيذ المزيد من الأدوات القائمة على السوق لتخصيص حصص الطاقة، فستصبح العواقب الإيجابية لتحسينات تكنولوجيا الطاقة المستحثة أكثر وضوحًا.

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) provides more scenarios and reliable climate change results for improving the accuracy of future hydrological parameter change analysis. This study uses five CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) to drive the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model, and then simulates the hydrological response of the upper and middle Huaihe River Basin (UMHRB) under future shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSPs). The results show that the five-GCM ensemble improves the simulation accuracy compared to a single model. The climate over the UMHRB likely becomes warmer. The general trend of future precipitation is projected to increase, and the increased rates are higher in spring and winter than in summer and autumn. Changes in annual evapotranspiration are basically consistent with precipitation, but seasonal evapotranspiration shows different changes (0–18%). The average annual runoff will increase in a wavelike manner, and the change patterns of runoff follow that of seasonal precipitation. Changes in soil moisture are not obvious, and the annual soil moisture increases slightly. In the intrayear process, soil moisture decreases slightly in autumn. The research results will enhance a more realistic understanding of the future hydrological response of the UMHRB and assist decision-makers in developing watershed flood risk-management measures and water and soil conservation plans.

Land use/cover change (LUCC) is an important part of the global environmental change. This study predicted the future structure of land use/cover on the basis of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and an econometric model with the socioeconomic factors as the driving forces. The future spatial pattern of land use/cover in China was simulated with the Dynamics of Land System (DLS) under the Business as Usual scenario, Rapid Economic Growth scenario and Cooperate Environmental Sustainability scenario. The simulation results showed that the land use/land cover in China will change continually due to the human activities and climate change, and the spatial pattern of land use/cover will also change as time goes by. Besides, the spatial pattern of land cover in China under the three scenarios is consistent on the whole, but with some regional differences. Built-up area will increase rapidly under the three scenarios, while most land cover types will show a decreasing trend to different degrees under different scenarios. The simulation results can provide an underlying land surface data and reference to the methodology research on the prediction of LUCC.

This study applies the Dynamics of Land System (DLS) model to simulating the land cover under the designed scenarios and then analyzes the effects of land cover conversion on energy flux in the semiarid grassland area of China with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The results indicate that the grassland will show a steadily upgrowing trend under the coordinated environmental sustainability (CES) scenario. Compared to the CES scenario, the rate of increase in grassland cover is lower, while the rate of increase in urban land cover will be higher under the rapid economic growth (REG) scenario. Although the conversion from cropland to grassland will reduce the energy flux, the expansion of urban area and decreasing of forestry area will bring about more energy flux. As a whole, the energy flux of near surface will obviously not change under the CES scenario, and the climate therefore will not be possible to be influenced greatly by land cover change. The energy flux under the REG scenario is higher than that under the CES scenario. Those research conclusions can offer valuable information for the land use planning and climate change adaptation in the semiarid grassland area of China.