• Energy Research

AbstractGlaciers of Baffin Island and nearby islands of Arctic Canada have experienced rapid mass losses over recent decades. However, projections of loss rates into the 21st century have so far been limited by the availability of model calibration and validation data. In this study, we model the surface mass balance of the largest ice cap on Baffin Island, Penny Ice Cap, since 1959, using an enhanced temperature index model calibrated with in situ data from 2006–2014. Subsequently, we project changes to 2099 based on the RCP4.5 climate scenario. Since the mid-1990s, the surface mass balance over Penny Ice Cap has become increasingly negative, particularly after 2005. Using volume–area scaling to account for glacier retreat, peak net mass loss is projected to occur between ~2040 and 2080, and the ice cap is expected to lose 22% (377.4 Gt or 60 m w.e.) of its 2014 ice mass by 2099, contributing 1.0 mm to sea level rise. Our 2015–2099 projections are approximately nine times more sensitive to changes in temperature than precipitation, with an absolute cumulative difference of 566 Gt (90 m w.e.) between +2 and −2°C scenarios, and 63 Gt (10 m w.e.) between +20% and −20% precipitation scenarios.

AbstractGlaciers of Baffin Island and nearby islands of Arctic Canada have experienced rapid mass losses over recent decades. However, projections of loss rates into the 21st century have so far been limited by the availability of model calibration and validation data. In this study, we model the surface mass balance of the largest ice cap on Baffin Island, Penny Ice Cap, since 1959, using an enhanced temperature index model calibrated with in situ data from 2006–2014. Subsequently, we project changes to 2099 based on the RCP4.5 climate scenario. Since the mid-1990s, the surface mass balance over Penny Ice Cap has become increasingly negative, particularly after 2005. Using volume–area scaling to account for glacier retreat, peak net mass loss is projected to occur between ~2040 and 2080, and the ice cap is expected to lose 22% (377.4 Gt or 60 m w.e.) of its 2014 ice mass by 2099, contributing 1.0 mm to sea level rise. Our 2015–2099 projections are approximately nine times more sensitive to changes in temperature than precipitation, with an absolute cumulative difference of 566 Gt (90 m w.e.) between +2 and −2°C scenarios, and 63 Gt (10 m w.e.) between +20% and −20% precipitation scenarios.

A major achievement in research supported by the Kluane Lake Research Station was the recovery, in 2001 – 02, of a suite of cores from the icefields of the central St. Elias Mountains, Yukon, by teams of researchers from Canada, the United States, and Japan. This project led to the development of parallel, long (103 – 104 year) ice-core records of climate and atmospheric change over an altitudinal range of more than 2 km, from the Eclipse Icefield (3017 m) to the ice-covered plateau of Mt. Logan (5340 m). These efforts built on earlier work recovering single ice cores in this region. Comparison of these records has allowed for variations in climate and atmospheric composition to be linked with changes in the vertical structure and dynamics of the North Pacific atmosphere, providing a unique perspective on these changes over the Holocene. Owing to their privileged location, cores from the St. Elias Icefields also contain a remarkably detailed record of aerosols from various sources around or across the North Pacific. In this paper we review major scientific findings from the study of St. Elias Mountain ice cores, focusing on five main themes: (1) The record of stable water isotopes (δ18O, δD), which has unique characteristics that differ from those of Greenland, other Arctic ice cores, and even among sites in the St. Elias; (2) the snow accumulation history; (3) the record of pollen, biomass burning aerosol, and desert dust deposition; (4) the record of long-range air pollutant deposition (sulphate and lead); and (5) the record of paleo-volcanism. Our discussion draws on studies published since 2000, but based on older ice cores from the St. Elias Mountains obtained in 1980 and 1996.

A major achievement in research supported by the Kluane Lake Research Station was the recovery, in 2001 – 02, of a suite of cores from the icefields of the central St. Elias Mountains, Yukon, by teams of researchers from Canada, the United States, and Japan. This project led to the development of parallel, long (103 – 104 year) ice-core records of climate and atmospheric change over an altitudinal range of more than 2 km, from the Eclipse Icefield (3017 m) to the ice-covered plateau of Mt. Logan (5340 m). These efforts built on earlier work recovering single ice cores in this region. Comparison of these records has allowed for variations in climate and atmospheric composition to be linked with changes in the vertical structure and dynamics of the North Pacific atmosphere, providing a unique perspective on these changes over the Holocene. Owing to their privileged location, cores from the St. Elias Icefields also contain a remarkably detailed record of aerosols from various sources around or across the North Pacific. In this paper we review major scientific findings from the study of St. Elias Mountain ice cores, focusing on five main themes: (1) The record of stable water isotopes (δ18O, δD), which has unique characteristics that differ from those of Greenland, other Arctic ice cores, and even among sites in the St. Elias; (2) the snow accumulation history; (3) the record of pollen, biomass burning aerosol, and desert dust deposition; (4) the record of long-range air pollutant deposition (sulphate and lead); and (5) the record of paleo-volcanism. Our discussion draws on studies published since 2000, but based on older ice cores from the St. Elias Mountains obtained in 1980 and 1996.

A high‐resolution, 8000 year‐long ice core record from the Mt. Logan summit plateau (5300 m asl) reveals the initiation of trans‐Pacific lead (Pb) pollution by ca. 1730, and a >10‐fold increase in Pb concentration (1981–1998 mean = 68.9 ng/l) above natural background (5.6 ng/l) attributed to rising anthropogenic Pb emissions from Asia. The largest rise in North Pacific Pb pollution from 1970–1998 (end of record) is contemporaneous with a decrease in Eurasian and North American Pb pollution as documented in ice core records from Greenland, Devon Island, and the European Alps. The distinct Pb pollution history in the North Pacific is interpreted to result from the later industrialization and less stringent abatement measures in Asia compared to North America and Eurasia. The Mt. Logan record shows evidence for both a rising Pb emissions signal from Asia and a trans‐Pacific transport efficiency signal related to the strength of the Aleutian Low.

A high‐resolution, 8000 year‐long ice core record from the Mt. Logan summit plateau (5300 m asl) reveals the initiation of trans‐Pacific lead (Pb) pollution by ca. 1730, and a >10‐fold increase in Pb concentration (1981–1998 mean = 68.9 ng/l) above natural background (5.6 ng/l) attributed to rising anthropogenic Pb emissions from Asia. The largest rise in North Pacific Pb pollution from 1970–1998 (end of record) is contemporaneous with a decrease in Eurasian and North American Pb pollution as documented in ice core records from Greenland, Devon Island, and the European Alps. The distinct Pb pollution history in the North Pacific is interpreted to result from the later industrialization and less stringent abatement measures in Asia compared to North America and Eurasia. The Mt. Logan record shows evidence for both a rising Pb emissions signal from Asia and a trans‐Pacific transport efficiency signal related to the strength of the Aleutian Low.

Past emissions of the toxic metal mercury (Hg) persist in the global environment, yet these emissions remain poorly constrained by existing data. Ice cores are high-resolution archives of atmospheric deposition that may provide crucial insight into past atmospheric Hg levels during recent and historical time. Here we present a record of total Hg (HgT) in an ice core from the pristine summit plateau (5340 m asl) of Mount Logan, Yukon, Canada, representing atmospheric deposition from AD 1410 to 1998. The Colonial Period (∼1603-1850) and North American "Gold Rush" (1850-1900) represent minor fractions (8% and 14%, respectively) of total anthropogenic Hg deposition in the record, with the majority (78%) occurring during the 20th Century. A period of maximum HgT fluxes from 1940 to 1975 coincides with estimates of enhanced anthropogenic Hg emissions from commercial sources, as well as with industrial emissions of other toxic metals. Rapid declines in HgT fluxes following peaks during the Gold Rush and the mid-20th Century indicate that atmospheric Hg deposition responds quickly to reductions in emissions. Increasing HgT fluxes from 1993 until the youngest samples in 1998 may reflect the resurgence of Hg emissions from unregulated coal burning and small-scale gold mining.

Past emissions of the toxic metal mercury (Hg) persist in the global environment, yet these emissions remain poorly constrained by existing data. Ice cores are high-resolution archives of atmospheric deposition that may provide crucial insight into past atmospheric Hg levels during recent and historical time. Here we present a record of total Hg (HgT) in an ice core from the pristine summit plateau (5340 m asl) of Mount Logan, Yukon, Canada, representing atmospheric deposition from AD 1410 to 1998. The Colonial Period (∼1603-1850) and North American "Gold Rush" (1850-1900) represent minor fractions (8% and 14%, respectively) of total anthropogenic Hg deposition in the record, with the majority (78%) occurring during the 20th Century. A period of maximum HgT fluxes from 1940 to 1975 coincides with estimates of enhanced anthropogenic Hg emissions from commercial sources, as well as with industrial emissions of other toxic metals. Rapid declines in HgT fluxes following peaks during the Gold Rush and the mid-20th Century indicate that atmospheric Hg deposition responds quickly to reductions in emissions. Increasing HgT fluxes from 1993 until the youngest samples in 1998 may reflect the resurgence of Hg emissions from unregulated coal burning and small-scale gold mining.