• Energy Research

Significance The significance of forest mortality on ecosystem services, and water, carbon, and nutrient cycling is indubitable. While there is a general agreement that climate change-induced heat and drought stress is expected to intensify forest mortality, the concurrent influence of changes in atmospheric humidity and CO 2 concentration remains unclear. Here, the response of mortality risk to projected climate change is evaluated in 13 biomes across the globe. Our results show that increasing specific humidity and CO 2 concentration partially offset the intensification of risk by changing precipitation and air temperature. The risk response is also mediated by plant hydraulic traits. The study provides a mechanistic foundation for estimating future responses of forest mortality risk, which can facilitate ecosystem management.

Nitrogen limits leaf gas exchange, canopy development, and evapotranspiration in many ecosystems. In dryland ecosystems, it is unclear whether increased anthropogenic nitrogen inputs alter the widely recognized dominance of water and energy constraints on ecohydrology. We use observations from a factorial irrigation and fertilization experiment in a nitrogen‐limited southern California annual grassland to explore this hypothesis. Our analysis shows growing season soil moisture and canopy‐scale water vapor conductance are equivalent in control and fertilized plots. This consistency arises as fertilization‐induced increases in leaf area index (LAI) are offset by reduced leaf area‐based stomatal conductance,gs. We interpret this as evidence of a hydraulic feedback between LAI, plant water status, and gs, not commonly implemented in evapotranspiration models. These results support the notion that canopy physiology and structure are coordinated in water‐limited ecosystems to maintain a transpiration flux tightly controlled by hydraulic constraints in the soil‐vegetation‐atmosphere pathway.

The recent dust storm in the Middle East (Sepember 2015) was publicized in the media as a sign of an impending ‘Dust Bowl.’ Its severity, demonstrated by extreme aerosol optical depth in the atmosphere in the 99th percentile compared to historical data, was attributed to the ongoing regional conflict. However, surface meteorological and remote sensing data, as well as regional climate model simulations, support an alternative hypothesis: the historically unprecedented aridity played a more prominent role, as evidenced by unusual climatic and meteorological conditions prior to and during the storm. Remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index demonstrates that vegetation cover was high in 2015 relative to the prior drought and conflict periods, suggesting that agricultural activity was not diminished during that year, thus negating the media narrative. Instead, meteorological simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model show that the storm was associated with a cyclone and ‘Shamal’ winds, typical for dust storm generation in this region, that were immediately followed by an unusual wind reversal at low levels that spread dust west to the Mediterranean Coast. These unusual meteorological conditions were aided by a significant reduction in the critical shear stress due to extreme dry and hot conditions, thereby enhancing dust availability for erosion during this storm. Concluding, unusual aridity, combined with unique synoptic weather patterns, enhanced dust emission and westward long-range transport across the region, thus generating the extreme storm.

SummaryShrub encroachment, forest decline and wildfires have caused large‐scale changes in semi‐arid vegetation over the past 50 years. Climate is a primary determinant of plant growth in semi‐arid ecosystems, yet it remains difficult to forecast large‐scale vegetation shifts (i.e. biome shifts) in response to climate change. We highlight recent advances from four conceptual perspectives that are improving forecasts of semi‐arid biome shifts. Moving from small to large scales, first, tree‐level models that simulate the carbon costs of drought‐induced plant hydraulic failure are improving predictions of delayed‐mortality responses to drought. Second, tracer‐informed water flow models are improving predictions of species coexistence as a function of climate. Third, new applications of ecohydrological models are beginning to simulate small‐scale water movement processes at large scales. Fourth, remotely‐sensed measurements of plant traits such as relative canopy moisture are providing early‐warning signals that predict forest mortality more than a year in advance. We suggest that a community of researchers using modeling approaches (e.g. machine learning) that can integrate these perspectives will rapidly improve forecasts of semi‐arid biome shifts. Better forecasts can be expected to help prevent catastrophic changes in vegetation states by identifying improved monitoring approaches and by prioritizing high‐risk areas for management.

Summary As climate change continues, forest vulnerability to droughts and heatwaves is increasing, but vulnerability varies regionally and locally through landscape position. Also, most models used in forecasting forest responses to heat and drought do not incorporate relevant spatial processes. In order to improve spatial predictions of tree vulnerability, we employed a nonlinear stochastic model of soil moisture dynamics accounting for landscape differences in aspect, topography and soils. Across a watershed in central Texas we modeled dynamic water stress for a dominant tree species, Juniperus ashei, and projected future dynamic water stress through the 21st century. Modeled dynamic water stress tracked spatial patterns of remotely sensed drought‐induced canopy loss. Accuracy in predicting drought‐impacted stands increased from 60%, accounting for spatially variable soil conditions, to 72% when also including lateral redistribution of water and radiation/temperature effects attributable to aspect. Our analysis also suggests that dynamic water stress will increase through the 21st century, with trees persisting at only selected microsites. Favorable microsites/refugia may exist across a landscape where trees can persist; however, if future droughts are too severe, the buffering capacity of an heterogeneous landscape could be overwhelmed. Incorporating spatial data will improve projections of future tree water stress and identification of potential resilient refugia.