• Energy Research

SignificanceThe first century BCE fall of the Roman Republic and Ptolemaic Kingdom and subsequent rise of the Roman Empire were among the most important political transitions in the history of Western civilization. Volcanic fallout in well-dated Arctic ice core records, climate proxies, and Earth system modeling show that this transition occurred during an extreme cold period resulting from a massive eruption of Alaska’s Okmok volcano early in 43 BCE. Written sources describe unusual climate, crop failures, famine, disease, and unrest in the Mediterranean immediately following the eruption—suggesting significant vulnerability to hydroclimatic shocks in otherwise sophisticated and powerful ancient states. Such shocks must be seen as having played a role in the historical developments for which the period is famed.

In the Rocky Mountains of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (United States), recent melting at a high-elevation (3,091 m asl) ice patch exposed a mature stand of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) trees located ~180 m above modern treeline dating to the mid-Holocene (c. 5,900-5,436 cal y BP +- 51 y). From this subfossil wood record, we contextualize the recent magnitude of warming relative to mid-Holocene conditions and reconstruct changes in climate that resulted in regional ice patch growth and reductions in treeline elevation. Specifically, we developed tree-ring based temperature estimates for subalpine treeline and compare and contextualize this record against a mid-Holocene-to-present (ca., 7,000 to 100 cal. BP) transient climate model.