• Energy Research

When modelling medium and long-term challenges we need a reference path of economic development (the so-called baseline). Because sectoral models often offer a more fundamental understanding of future developments for specific sectors, many CGE modeling teams have adopted different kinds of linking approaches to sectoral models to generate baselines. We systematically compare and discuss approaches of linking CGE models for the baseline calibration procedure, and discuss best practices and pitfalls. We identify different types of linking approaches which we divide into a) links with partial equilibrium models, and b) links with non-economic models. These two types of linking approaches are then analyzed with respect to e.g. the degree of linkage, information exchanged, as well as compromises in aggregations and definitions. Based on this, we discuss potential drawbacks and conclude with suggestions for best practices and research recommendations.

AbstractBiofuels often raise the specter of food insecurity, water resource depletion, and greenhouse gas emissions from land clearing. These concerns underpin the “sustainability criteria” governing access to European biofuel markets. However, it is unclear if producing biofuels in low‐income countries does exacerbate poverty and food insecurity, and moreover, whether the sustainability criteria should apply to all agricultural exports entering European markets. We develop an integrated modeling framework to simultaneously assess the economic and environmental impacts of producing biofuels in Malawi. We incorporate the effects of land use change on crop water use, and the opportunity costs of using scarce resources for biofuels instead of other crops. We find that biofuel production reduces poverty and food insecurity by raising household incomes. Irrigated outgrower schemes, rather than estate farms, lead to better economic outcomes, fewer emissions, and similar water requirements. Nevertheless, to gain access to European markets, Malawi would need to reduce emissions from ethanol plants. We find that biofuels’ economic and emissions outcomes are generally preferable to tobacco or soybeans. We conclude that the sustainability criteria encourage more sustainable biofuel production in countries like Malawi, but are perhaps overly biased against biofuels since other export crops raise similar concerns about food security and environmental impacts.

The pressure on land resources continuously increases not only with the rising demand for agricultural commodities, but also with the growing need for action on global challenges, such as biodiversity loss or climate change, where land plays a crucial role. Land saving as a strategy, where agricultural productivity is increased to allow a reduction of required cropland while sustaining production volumes and meeting demand, could address this trade-off. With our interdisciplinary model-based study, we globally assess regional potentials of land saving and analyze resulting effects on agricultural production, prices and trade. Thereby, different land saving strategies are investigated that (1) minimize required cropland (2) minimize spatial marginalization induced by land saving and (3) maximize the attainable profit. We find that current cropland requirements could be reduced between 37% and 48%, depending on the applied land saving strategy. The generally more efficient use of land would cause crop prices to fall in all regions, but also trigger an increase in global agricultural production of 2.8%. While largest land saving potentials occur in regions with high yield gaps, the impacts on prices and production are strongest in highly populated regions with already high pressure on land. Global crop prices and trade affect regional impacts of land saving on agricultural markets and can displace effects to spatially distant regions. Our results point out the importance of investigating the potentials and effects of land saving in the context of global markets within an integrative, global framework. The resulting land saving potentials can moreover reframe debates on global potentials for afforestation and carbon sequestration, as well as on how to reconcile agricultural production and biodiversity conservation and thus contribute to approaching central goals of the 21st century, addressed for example in the Sustainable Development Goals, the Paris Agreement or the post-2020 global biodiversity framework.

Cette étude résume le concept de lien entre l'alimentation, l'énergie et la sécurité de l'eau (PEU de liens). L'objectif est de sensibiliser à l'importance du nexus et de permettre aux parties prenantes d'envisager les interconnexions entre les secteurs dans leur travail. Les QUELQUES liens sont discutés dans le contexte de l'Afrique au sud du Sahara (Ass) — en utilisant le Malawi et le Mozambique comme études de cas. Même si l'analyse simultanée des questions de sécurité alimentaire, énergétique et hydrique est essentielle compte tenu des interconnexions, résumant les interventions avec les QUELQUES approches nexus au Malawi et au Mozambique, nous avons constaté qu'il n'y a qu'un nombre limité d'interventions en place. De plus, cette étude passe en revue les modèles macro- et microéconomiques capables d'analyser les QUELQUES liens. Au niveau macroéconomique, les modèles d'équilibre général sont particulièrement discutés, car ils montrent des compromis et des synergies entre les interventions NEXUS à tous les niveaux économiques. Ces modèles peuvent aider les décideurs politiques à comprendre les effets de nexus ex ante et à les convaincre de penser au-delà de leurs départements politiques respectifs. Au micro-niveau, l'impact des interventions NEXUS peut être évalué avec des approches qualitatives et quantitatives. Il existe des défis spécifiques pour les interventions NEXUS en ce qui concerne l'agrégation et la planification du ciblage. Une analyse des données secondaires des interventions NEXUS montre que les données existantes ne sont pas suffisantes pour mener des recherches spécifiquement liées aux QUELQUES NEXUS. Les résultats de cette étude aideront les programmes de recherche à refléter les questions clés nécessaires pour améliorer l'adoption de QUELQUES technologies et à informer les décideurs lorsqu'ils formulent des politiques qui exploiteront les fortes synergies des investissements dans la sécurité alimentaire, l'énergie et l'eau. Este estudio resume el concepto del nexo de seguridad alimento-energía-agua (POCOS nexos). El objetivo es crear conciencia sobre la importancia del nexo y permitir que las partes interesadas consideren las interconexiones entre los sectores en su trabajo. Los POCOS nexos se discuten en el contexto de África al sur del Sáhara (SSA), utilizando Malawi y Mozambique como estudios de caso. A pesar de que analizar los problemas de seguridad alimentaria, energética e hídrica simultáneamente es fundamental dadas las interconexiones, resumiendo las intervenciones con el enfoque de POCOS nexos en Malawi y Mozambique, descubrimos que solo hay un número limitado de intervenciones implementadas. Además, este estudio revisa los modelos macro y microeconómicos que son capaces de analizar los POCOS nexos. En el nivel macro, se discuten especialmente los modelos de equilibrio general, porque muestran compensaciones y sinergias de las intervenciones de nexo en todos los niveles económicos. Estos modelos pueden ayudar a guiar la comprensión de los responsables políticos de los efectos de nexo ex ante y convencerlos de que piensen más allá de sus respectivos departamentos políticos. A nivel micro, el impacto de las intervenciones de Nexus se puede evaluar con enfoques cualitativos y cuantitativos. Existen desafíos específicos para las intervenciones de Nexus cuando se trata de la agregación y la planificación de la focalización. Un análisis de datos secundarios de las intervenciones de Nexus muestra que los datos existentes no son suficientes para realizar investigaciones específicamente relacionadas con los POCOS Nexus. Los resultados de este estudio ayudarán a los programas de investigación a reflejar las preguntas clave necesarias para mejorar la adopción de POCAS tecnologías e informar a los responsables políticos a medida que formulan políticas que explotarán las fuertes sinergias de la seguridad alimentaria, la energía y las inversiones en agua. This study summarizes the concept of the food-energy-water security nexus (FEW nexus). The aim is to create awareness about the importance of the nexus and to enable stakeholders to consider interconnections between the sectors in their work. The FEW nexus is discussed in the context of Africa south of the Sahara (SSA) — using Malawi and Mozambique as case studies. Even though analyzing food, energy, and water security issues simultaneously is critical given the interconnections, summarizing interventions with the FEW nexus approach in Malawi and Mozambique, we found that there are only a limited number of interventions in place. Additionally, this study reviews macro- and microeconomic models that are able to analyze the FEW nexus. On the macrolevel, especially general equilibrium models are discussed, because they show trade-offs and synergies of nexus interventions at all economic levels. These models can help guide policymakers' understanding of nexus effects ex ante and convince them to think beyond their respective political departments. On the microlevel, the impact of nexus interventions can be assessed with qualitative and quantitative approaches. There are specific challenges for nexus interventions when it comes to aggregation and planning of the targeting. A secondary data analysis of nexus interventions shows that existing data is not sufficient to conduct research specifically related to the FEW nexus. The results of this study will help research programs to reflect the key questions required to enhance adoption of FEW technologies and inform policymakers as they formulate policies that will exploit the strong synergies of food security, energy, and water investments. تلخص هذه الدراسة مفهوم العلاقة بين الأمن الغذائي والطاقة والمياه (عدد قليل من الروابط). والهدف من ذلك هو خلق الوعي بأهمية الصلة وتمكين أصحاب المصلحة من النظر في أوجه الترابط بين القطاعات في عملهم. وتناقش الصلة القليلة في سياق أفريقيا جنوب الصحراء الكبرى - باستخدام ملاوي وموزامبيق كدراسات حالة. على الرغم من أن تحليل قضايا الغذاء والطاقة والأمن المائي في وقت واحد أمر بالغ الأهمية بالنظر إلى الترابط، وتلخيص التدخلات مع نهج الترابط القليل في ملاوي وموزامبيق، وجدنا أنه لا يوجد سوى عدد محدود من التدخلات. بالإضافة إلى ذلك، تستعرض هذه الدراسة نماذج الاقتصاد الكلي والجزئي القادرة على تحليل العلاقة القليلة. على المستوى الكلي، تتم مناقشة نماذج التوازن العام بشكل خاص، لأنها تُظهر المفاضلات والتآزر بين تدخلات الترابط على جميع المستويات الاقتصادية. يمكن أن تساعد هذه النماذج في توجيه فهم صانعي السياسات لتأثيرات الصلة مسبقًا وإقناعهم بالتفكير خارج إداراتهم السياسية. على المستوى الجزئي، يمكن تقييم تأثير تدخلات NEXUS من خلال مناهج نوعية وكمية. هناك تحديات محددة لتدخلات NEXUS عندما يتعلق الأمر بتجميع وتخطيط الاستهداف. يُظهر تحليل البيانات الثانوية لتدخلات الصلة أن البيانات الحالية ليست كافية لإجراء البحوث المتعلقة على وجه التحديد بالصلة القليلة. ستساعد نتائج هذه الدراسة البرامج البحثية على عكس الأسئلة الرئيسية المطلوبة لتعزيز اعتماد عدد قليل من التقنيات وإبلاغ صانعي السياسات أثناء قيامهم بصياغة سياسات من شأنها استغلال أوجه التآزر القوية بين الأمن الغذائي والطاقة والاستثمارات في المياه.