• Energy Research

Forest dynamics are driven by top-down changes in climate and bottom-up positive (destabilizing) and negative (stabilizing) biophysical feedbacks involving disturbance and biotic interactions. When positive feedbacks prevail, the resulting self-propagating changes can potentially shift the system into a new state, even in the absence of climate change. Conversely, negative feedbacks help maintain a dynamic equilibrium that allows communities to recover their pre-disturbance characteristics. We examine palaeoenvironmental records from temperate forests to assess the nature of long-term stability and regime shifts under a broader range of environmental forcings than can be observed at present. Forest histories from northwestern USA, Patagonia, Tasmania and New Zealand show long-term trajectories that were governed by (i) the biophysical template, (ii) characteristics of climate and disturbance, (iii) historical legacies that condition the ecological capacity to respond to subsequent disturbances, and (iv) thresholds that act as irreversible barriers. Attention only to current forest conditions overlooks the significance of history in creating path dependency, the importance of individual extreme events, and the inherent feedbacks that force an ecosystem into reorganization. A long-time perspective on ecological resilience helps guide conservation strategies that focus on environmental preservation as well as identify vulnerable species and ecosystems to future climate change. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions’.

Forest dynamics are driven by top-down changes in climate and bottom-up positive (destabilizing) and negative (stabilizing) biophysical feedbacks involving disturbance and biotic interactions. When positive feedbacks prevail, the resulting self-propagating changes can potentially shift the system into a new state, even in the absence of climate change. Conversely, negative feedbacks help maintain a dynamic equilibrium that allows communities to recover their pre-disturbance characteristics. We examine palaeoenvironmental records from temperate forests to assess the nature of long-term stability and regime shifts under a broader range of environmental forcings than can be observed at present. Forest histories from northwestern USA, Patagonia, Tasmania and New Zealand show long-term trajectories that were governed by (i) the biophysical template, (ii) characteristics of climate and disturbance, (iii) historical legacies that condition the ecological capacity to respond to subsequent disturbances, and (iv) thresholds that act as irreversible barriers. Attention only to current forest conditions overlooks the significance of history in creating path dependency, the importance of individual extreme events, and the inherent feedbacks that force an ecosystem into reorganization. A long-time perspective on ecological resilience helps guide conservation strategies that focus on environmental preservation as well as identify vulnerable species and ecosystems to future climate change. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions’.

AbstractConservation efforts to protect forested landscapes are challenged by climate projections that suggest substantial restructuring of vegetation and disturbance regimes in the future. In this regard, paleoecological records that describe ecosystem responses to past variations in climate, fire, and human activity offer critical information for assessing present landscape conditions and future landscape vulnerability. We illustrate this point drawing on 8 sites in the northwestern United States, New Zealand, Patagonia, and central and southern Europe that have undergone different levels of climate and land‐use change. These sites fall along a gradient of landscape conditions that range from nearly pristine (i.e., vegetation and disturbance shaped primarily by past climate and biophysical constraints) to highly altered (i.e., landscapes that have been intensely modified by past human activity). Position on this gradient has implications for understanding the role of natural and anthropogenic disturbance in shaping ecosystem dynamics and assessments of present biodiversity, including recognizing missing or overrepresented species. Dramatic vegetation reorganization occurred at all study sites as a result of postglacial climate variations. In nearly pristine landscapes, such as those in Yellowstone National Park, climate has remained the primary driver of ecosystem change up to the present day. In Europe, natural vegetation–climate–fire linkages were broken 6000–8000 years ago with the onset of Neolithic farming, and in New Zealand, natural linkages were first lost about 700 years ago with arrival of the Maori people. In the U.S. Northwest and Patagonia, the greatest landscape alteration occurred in the last 150 years with Euro‐American settlement. Paleoecology is sometimes the best and only tool for evaluating the degree of landscape alteration and the extent to which landscapes retain natural components. Information on landscape‐level history thus helps assess current ecological change, clarify management objectives, and define conservation strategies that seek to protect both natural and cultural elements.

AbstractConservation efforts to protect forested landscapes are challenged by climate projections that suggest substantial restructuring of vegetation and disturbance regimes in the future. In this regard, paleoecological records that describe ecosystem responses to past variations in climate, fire, and human activity offer critical information for assessing present landscape conditions and future landscape vulnerability. We illustrate this point drawing on 8 sites in the northwestern United States, New Zealand, Patagonia, and central and southern Europe that have undergone different levels of climate and land‐use change. These sites fall along a gradient of landscape conditions that range from nearly pristine (i.e., vegetation and disturbance shaped primarily by past climate and biophysical constraints) to highly altered (i.e., landscapes that have been intensely modified by past human activity). Position on this gradient has implications for understanding the role of natural and anthropogenic disturbance in shaping ecosystem dynamics and assessments of present biodiversity, including recognizing missing or overrepresented species. Dramatic vegetation reorganization occurred at all study sites as a result of postglacial climate variations. In nearly pristine landscapes, such as those in Yellowstone National Park, climate has remained the primary driver of ecosystem change up to the present day. In Europe, natural vegetation–climate–fire linkages were broken 6000–8000 years ago with the onset of Neolithic farming, and in New Zealand, natural linkages were first lost about 700 years ago with arrival of the Maori people. In the U.S. Northwest and Patagonia, the greatest landscape alteration occurred in the last 150 years with Euro‐American settlement. Paleoecology is sometimes the best and only tool for evaluating the degree of landscape alteration and the extent to which landscapes retain natural components. Information on landscape‐level history thus helps assess current ecological change, clarify management objectives, and define conservation strategies that seek to protect both natural and cultural elements.

In the Rocky Mountains of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (United States), recent melting at a high-elevation (3,091 m asl) ice patch exposed a mature stand of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) trees located ~180 m above modern treeline dating to the mid-Holocene (c. 5,900-5,436 cal y BP +- 51 y). From this subfossil wood record, we contextualize the recent magnitude of warming relative to mid-Holocene conditions and reconstruct changes in climate that resulted in regional ice patch growth and reductions in treeline elevation. Specifically, we developed tree-ring based temperature estimates for subalpine treeline and compare and contextualize this record against a mid-Holocene-to-present (ca., 7,000 to 100 cal. BP) transient climate model.

In the Rocky Mountains of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (United States), recent melting at a high-elevation (3,091 m asl) ice patch exposed a mature stand of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) trees located ~180 m above modern treeline dating to the mid-Holocene (c. 5,900-5,436 cal y BP +- 51 y). From this subfossil wood record, we contextualize the recent magnitude of warming relative to mid-Holocene conditions and reconstruct changes in climate that resulted in regional ice patch growth and reductions in treeline elevation. Specifically, we developed tree-ring based temperature estimates for subalpine treeline and compare and contextualize this record against a mid-Holocene-to-present (ca., 7,000 to 100 cal. BP) transient climate model.