• Energy Research

Abstract In December 1997, the Kyoto Protocol was adopted, setting limits on the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of industrialized countries. The European Union agreed to reduce its emissions of GHG by 8% during the period 2008–2012 in comparison to their 1990 levels. Subsequently, in a scheme known as “burden-sharing”, Portugal was allowed to increase its emissions by 27% in the same period. Large industrial facilities are responsible for a significant share of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and are object of a European Directive (2003/87/EC) establishing the scheme for GHG emission allowance trading within the European Union, launched with the purpose of allowing the reduction of GHG emissions cost-effectively. According to the Directive, Member States shall develop a National Allocation Plan (NAP) stating the total quantity of allowances that each one intends to allocate and how it proposes to allocate them among the activities included in the trading scheme. In this work, an analysis of the Portuguese industry is performed, focused on the energy consumption and CO 2 emissions levels in the period 1990–2001 and on the estimation of the two parameters for the period 2002–2012, considering different economic growth scenarios and investments on energy reduction technologies. Results show that all the analysed sectors present a significant growth in CO 2 emissions, exceeding the limit established in the frame of the Kyoto Protocol, and that measures other than cost-effective energy technologies will have to be implemented.

The pandemic caused by coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (associated to the disease named COVID-19) is having a global impact that affects health, the economy and the environment. These impacts are negative in most of the sectors but benefits also occurred in specific fields. Tourism was one of the most negatively affected economic sectors, and in terms of benefits, the improvement of air quality can be highlighted, with positive health implications. This paper aims to evaluate the impacts on these two particular fields—tourism and air quality—focusing on Portugal due to the relevance of tourism in the country. The research carried out in this paper enables us to find the most critical areas and identifies lessons learnt and recommendations for the post-COVID period. Tourism and air quality data were collected for both 2019 and 2020 and compared in terms of quantitative and spatial analysis. The Lisbon metropolitan area—the geographical area where the capital of the country is located—was the area that suffered the most negative impacts in terms of tourism activity but was also the one where highest benefits in terms of air pollution reduction and human exposure were felt. Recommendations for future strategies are suggested, including new concepts of tourism connected to the environment; the investment in online/virtual tourism activities; promotion of the domestic market; mitigation of the over-tourism problem and using environmental issues, such as air quality, as new attractiveness criteria for tourism destinations.

The current linear economic system has led Europe to unsustainable development, aggravating several issues, such as climate change, limitation of resources, and pollution. As a sustainable alternative, circular economy (CE) has been promoted around the world. This economic system allows for the maximization of a product’s life, thus decreasing its environmental impact and increasing its value. The main goal of this work is to scrutinise the concepts of CE over time, from the beginning of the concept, to its implementation in Europe and its application in Portugal. In addition, the requirement for strategies that led to studies on regional urban metabolism are addressed. Another goal is to examine Portugal and see how the country is dealing with the implementation of strategies for CE, moving from concept to practice. This part of the work resulted in the creation of the REMET-UA model, a tool to assess the regional economic metabolism, which also has the potential to evaluate synergies of materials in terms of fluxes between regions, maximizing the amount of information available at this scale for municipalities and enterprises to be used, having taken into account the purpose of circular economy. The results showed that REMET-UA is fully operational and corresponds to the goal for which the model was made. Future developments have been identified and are underway to improve the model and bring it as close to reality as possible.

Results from general circulation models suggest that the increase of forest fire activity at the global scale will be one of the impacts of climate change. As attention shifts to regional climate further spatial resolution is needed to handle the forcings and circulations that occur at smaller scales. One of the available techniques to assess the impact of climate change on fire activity at the regional scale is the dynamical downscaling between global climate models and regional models.In the present work, the impact of climate change on fire danger at the regional scale was examined by means of dynamical downscaling between a general circulation model (MUGCM) and a regional meteorological model (MM5). A Southern European country, Portugal, was selected as case-study since general circulation models predict significant surface air temperature increases over Southern and Mediterranean Europe.Present and future climates, centred in 1990 and 2050, respectively, were obtained using daily data previously simulated by MUGCM. Climate change signals on temperature and precipitation derived from the MUGCM ensemble simulations were analysed using spatial averages over the Iberian Peninsula and cluster analysis applied over Portugal. For the Iberian Peninsula, a positive trend for temperature for all seasons, with higher variability for the winter months, was obtained. Over Portugal, for the future climate, the average winter temperature is expected to be higher. Precipitation increases are simulated for the end of autumn/beginning of winter, and negative changes are expected for the end of winter/beginning of spring and beginning of summer. The cluster analysis revealed important temporal changes on the meteorological variables which may be relevant for fire management planning, namely a longer fire season over Portugal is expected.The spatial refinement of the projected climate change impacts on the fire weather risk over Portugal was performed through numerical downscaling between MUGCM and MM5. The MM5 outputs, at 10?km resolution, were used to estimate the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System components. Results show higher FWI values in the beginning of summer for the 2050 scenario. An increase of the maximum values of the Drought Code (DC) in the inner part of Portugal was also detected. An increase in the total area burned is anticipated, with the consequent increase of pollutants emissions.

Abstract In a future climate scenario forest fire activity over Portugal will substantially increase and consequently area burned and forest fire emissions to the atmosphere are also expected to increase. This study investigated the impact of future forest fire emissions on air quality over Portugal under the IPCC SRES A2 scenario. Reference and future climate change scenarios were simulated using the MM5/CHIMERE air quality modelling system, which was applied over Europe and over Portugal, using nesting capabilities. The initial and boundary conditions were provided by the HadAM3P model simulations for the reference and the future climate. The forest fire emissions were estimated using a methodology, which included the selection of emission factors for each pollutant, burning efficiency, fuel loads and the predicted area burned. These emissions were added to the simulation grid using specific parameterizations for their vertical distribution. Modelling results for Portugal pointed out that future forest fire activity will increase the O3 concentrations of almost 23 μg m−3 by 2100 but a decrease of approximately 6 μg m−3 is detected close to the main forest fire locations. Future forest fire emissions will also impact the PM10 concentrations over Portugal with increases reaching 20 μg m−3 along the Northern coastal region in July. The highest increases are estimated over the north and centre of Portugal where the area burned projections in future climate are higher.

(Excerpt) Climate change has been internationally recognized as a global problem, caused by human action and intensified by national development. Global warming is its most known effect, affecting agricultural activity, increasing drought periods, and causing serious health conditions in worldwide population. Initiatives such as the IPCC have been established to prevent and mitigate climate change and global warming. The Paris Agreement signed by many nations in 2015 represents a significant recognition of the need for global policy actions, across all the activity sectors. Though progress is pursued by developed and developing countries, the scarcity of fossil energy sources and the need to develop in a sustainable way have led to new ideas about the use of natural resources, thus leading to what is nowadays called the circular economy. This Special Issue of Climate, with the theme ‘’Fighting Climate Change with Circular Economy’’, aims to publish research or review articles dealing with topics related to climate change and global warming, within the circular economy perspective, exploring the role and progress of energy policy in the mitigation and adaptation to climate change. (...)

(Excerpt) A circular economy encourages sustainability and competitiveness in the long term. The recognized scarcity of key natural resources and the growing volume of industrial and urban waste are the basis of the recognition that a circular economy approach is the pathway for sustainable development. On 4th March 2019, the European Commission adopted a comprehensive report on the implementation of a Circular Economy Action Plan. The report presents the main achievements under the Action Plan and sketches out future challenges to shaping our economy and paving the way towards a climate-neutral, circular economy where pressure on natural and freshwater resources as well as ecosystems is minimized. This special issue of Sustainability, with the theme “The Circular Economy as a Promoter of Sustainability”, aims to publish research or review articles dealing with the topics related with (i) sustainable development strategies based on the circular economy concept, (ii) exploring the role and progress of production and consumption to waste management, including energy, (iii) market for secondary raw materials, (iv) closed loop product lifecycles, (v) recycling and re-use, and (vi) support consumers choosing sustainable products and services. (...)

The potential impacts of climate-induced changes in air pollution levels and its impacts on population health were investigated. The IPCC scenario (SRES A2) was used to analyse the effects of climate on future PM10 concentrations over Portugal and their impact on short-term population exposure and mortality. The air quality modelling system has been applied with high spatial resolution looking on climate changes at regional scale. To quantify health impacts related to air pollution changes, the WHO methodology for health impact assessment was implemented. The results point to 8% increase of premature mortality attributed to future PM10 levels in Portugal. The pollution episodes with daily average PM10 concentration above the current legislated value (50 μg·m−3) would be responsible for 81% of attributable cases. The absolute number of deaths attributable to PM10 under future climate emphasizes the importance of indirect effects of climate change on human health.