• Energy Research

Effective operation of a microgrid depends critically on accurate forecasting of its components. Recently, internet forecasting competitions have been used to determine the best methods for energy forecasting, with some competitions having a special focus on microgrids and COVID-19 energy-use forecasting. This paper describes forecasting for the IEEE Computational Intelligence Society 3rd Technical Challenge, which required predicting solar and building loads of a microgrid system at Monash University for the month of November 2020. The forecast achieved the lowest error rate in the competition. We review the literature on recent energy forecasting competitions and metrics and explain how the solution drew from top-ranked solutions in previous energy forecasting competitions such as the Global Energy Forecasting Competition series. The techniques can be reapplied in other forecasting endeavours, while approaches to some of the time-series forecasting are more ad hoc and specific to the competition. Novel thresholding approaches were used to improve the quality of the input data. As the training and evaluation phase of the challenge occurred during COVID-19 lockdown and reopening, the building demand was subject to pandemic-related effects. Finally, we assess other data sources which would have improved the model forecast skill such as data from different numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, solar observations, and high-resolution price and demand data in the vicinity of the campus.

Input data for paper, R code to produce models and output, PDF files for figures in paper, summary statistics, and climate classifications

Predict+Optimize frameworks integrate forecasting and optimization to address real-world challenges such as renewable energy scheduling, where variability and uncertainty are critical factors. This paper benchmarks solutions from the IEEE-CIS Technical Challenge on Predict+Optimize for Renewable Energy Scheduling, focusing on forecasting renewable production and demand and optimizing energy cost. The competition attracted 49 participants in total. The top-ranked method employed stochastic optimization using LightGBM ensembles, and achieved at least a 2% reduction in energy costs compared to deterministic approaches, demonstrating that the most accurate point forecast does not necessarily guarantee the best performance in downstream optimization. The published data and problem setting establish a benchmark for further research into integrated forecasting-optimization methods for energy systems, highlighting the importance of considering forecast uncertainty in optimization models to achieve cost-effective and reliable energy management. The novelty of this work lies in its comprehensive evaluation of Predict+Optimize methodologies applied to a real-world renewable energy scheduling problem, providing insights into the scalability, generalizability, and effectiveness of the proposed solutions. Potential applications extend beyond energy systems to any domain requiring integrated forecasting and optimization, such as supply chain management, transportation planning, and financial portfolio optimization.

This paper studies social cooperation backed peer-to-peer energy trading technique by which prosumers can decide how they can use their batteries opportunistically for participating in the peer-to-peer trading. The objective is to achieve a solution in which the ultimate beneficiaries are the prosumers, i.e., a prosumer-centric solution. To do so, a coalition formation game is designed, which enables a prosumer to compare its benefit of participating in the peer-to-peer trading with and without using its battery and thus, allows the prosumer to form suitable social coalition groups with other similar prosumers in the network for conducting peer-to-peer trading. The properties of the formed coalitions are studied, and it is shown that 1) the coalition structure that stems from the social cooperation between participating prosumers at each time slot is both stable and optimal, and 2) the outcomes of the proposed peer- to-peer trading scheme is prosumer-centric. Case studies are conducted based on real household energy usage and solar generation data to highlight how the proposed scheme can benefit prosumers through exhibiting prosumer-centric properties. Single column, double space, 24 pages

This paper proposes a peer-to-peer energy trading scheme that can help the centralized power system to reduce the total electricity demand of its customers at the peak hour. To do so, a cooperative Stackelberg game is formulated, in which the centralized power system acts as the leader that needs to decide on a price at the peak demand period to incentivize prosumers to not seeking any energy from it. The prosumers, on the other hand, act as followers and respond to the leader's decision by forming suitable coalitions with neighboring prosumers in order to participate in P2P energy trading to meet their energy demand. The properties of the proposed Stackelberg game are studied. It is shown that the game has a unique and stable Stackelberg equilibrium, as a result of the stability of prosumers' coalitions. At the equilibrium, the leader chooses its strategy using a derived closed-form expression, while the prosumers choose their equilibrium coalition structure. An algorithm is proposed that enables the centralized power system and the prosumers to reach the equilibrium solution. Numerical case studies demonstrate the beneficial properties of the proposed scheme. 10 pages, accepted for publication

This paper explores the feasibility of social cooperation between prosumers within an energy network in establishing their sustainable participation in peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading. In particular, a canonical coalition game (CCG) is utilized to propose a P2P energy trading scheme, in which a set of participating prosumers form a coalition group to trade their energy, if there is any, with one another. By exploring the concept of the core of the designed CCG framework, the mid-market rate is utilized as a pricing mechanism of the proposed P2P trading to confirm the stability of the coalition as well as to guarantee the benefit to the prosumers for forming the social coalition. The paper further introduces the motivational psychology models that are relevant to the proposed P2P scheme and it is shown that the outcomes of proposed P2P energy trading scheme satisfy the discussed models. Consequently, it is proven that the proposed scheme is consumer-centric that has the potential to corroborate sustainable prosumers participation in P2P energy trading. Finally, some numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the beneficial properties of the proposed scheme. 11 pages, 3 figures, 1 table

The COVID-19 pandemic rapidly reoriented the lives of billions of people across the globe toward working, learning, and subsisting from home. This paper examines the consequences of this disruption of electricity use in Australian households. Using high-frequency electricity monitoring from 491 houses and per-circuit monitoring and in-depth interviews with 17 households, the paper (1) compares changes in energy use before and during COVID-19 lockdown, (2) quantifies the key drivers of changes in energy use experienced by households during lockdown, and (3) tracks households’ interactions with energy use feedback. The findings identify significant increases in certain aspects of household electricity use directly related to COVID-19, including increased cooking and digital device use. Yet despite the government mandate requiring a large proportion of the population to remain at home, overall energy use among the majority of Queensland households monitored actually decreased during lockdown versus prior, driven primarily by a reduction in air conditioner use during lockdown as the weather cooled. Further, despite significant quantified and self-reported changes in energy use, users who had energy use feedback installed accessed their dashboards less during lockdown than they did prior. The paper discusses these results in the context of statistics on COVID-19 related energy demand fluctuations elsewhere, and the implications for the provision of energy use information to residents during significant disruptions such as lockdown.