• Energy Research

Suggested citation: Pörtner, H.O., Scholes, R.J., Agard, J., Archer, E., Arneth, A., Bai, X., Barnes, D., Burrows, M., Chan, L., Cheung, W.L., Diamond, S., Donatti, C., Duarte, C., Eisenhauer, N., Foden, W., Gasalla, M. A., Handa, C., Hickler, T., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Ichii, K., Jacob, U., Insarov, G., Kiessling, W., Leadley, P., Leemans, R., Levin, L., Lim, M., Maharaj, S., Managi, S., Marquet, P. A., McElwee, P., Midgley, G., Oberdorff, T., Obura, D., Osman, E., Pandit, R., Pascual, U., Pires, A. P. F., Popp, A., Reyes-García, V., Sankaran, M., Settele, J., Shin, Y. J., Sintayehu, D. W., Smith, P., Steiner, N., Strassburg, B., Sukumar, R., Trisos, C., Val, A.L., Wu, J., Aldrian, E., Parmesan, C., Pichs-Madruga, R., Roberts, D.C., Rogers, A.D., Díaz, S., Fischer, M., Hashimoto, S., Lavorel, S., Wu, N., Ngo, H.T. 2021. IPBES-IPCC co-sponsored workshop report on biodiversity and climate change; IPBES and IPCC, DOI:10.5281/zenodo.4782538 This report presents the main conclusions of the first-ever IPCC-IPBES co-sponsored workshop which took place in December 2020. The workshop explored diverse facets of the interaction between climate and biodiversity, from current trends to the role and implementation of nature-based solutions and the sustainable development of human society. This report is underpinned by the Scientific Outcome, which includes seven sections, the complete references and the report glossary. You can find the Scientific Outcome here https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4659158

Suggested citation: Pörtner, H.O., Scholes, R.J., Agard, J., Archer, E., Arneth, A., Bai, X., Barnes, D., Burrows, M., Chan, L., Cheung, W.L., Diamond, S., Donatti, C., Duarte, C., Eisenhauer, N., Foden, W., Gasalla, M. A., Handa, C., Hickler, T., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Ichii, K., Jacob, U., Insarov, G., Kiessling, W., Leadley, P., Leemans, R., Levin, L., Lim, M., Maharaj, S., Managi, S., Marquet, P. A., McElwee, P., Midgley, G., Oberdorff, T., Obura, D., Osman, E., Pandit, R., Pascual, U., Pires, A. P. F., Popp, A., Reyes-García, V., Sankaran, M., Settele, J., Shin, Y. J., Sintayehu, D. W., Smith, P., Steiner, N., Strassburg, B., Sukumar, R., Trisos, C., Val, A.L., Wu, J., Aldrian, E., Parmesan, C., Pichs-Madruga, R., Roberts, D.C., Rogers, A.D., Díaz, S., Fischer, M., Hashimoto, S., Lavorel, S., Wu, N., Ngo, H.T. 2021. IPBES-IPCC co-sponsored workshop report synopsis on biodiversity and climate change; IPBES and IPCC, DOI:10.5281/zenodo.4782538 The Synopsis presents the main conclusions of the first-ever IPCC-IPBES co-sponsored workshop which took place in December 2020. The workshop explored diverse facets of the interaction between climate and biodiversity, from current trends to the role and implementation of nature-based solutions and the sustainable development of human society. This Synopsis is underpinned by the Scientific Outcome, which includes seven sections, the complete references and the report glossary. You can find the Scientific Outcome here https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4659158

La technique de correction de biais (BC) de la cartographie quantitative (QM) a été appliquée pour la première fois pour traiter les biais dans les précipitations simulées sur le Vietnam à partir du modèle climatique régional (RegCM) piloté par cinq produits du modèle climatique mondial (GCM) de la phase 5 (CMIP5) du projet d'intercomparaison de modèles couplés (CMIP5). Le processus de gestion de la qualité a été mis en œuvre pour la période 1986-2005, puis appliqué à la période à moyen terme 2046-2065 dans le cadre des voies de concentration représentative (RCP) 4.5 et RCP 8.5. La comparaison avec les résultats du modèle original au cours de la période de validation indépendante montre une réduction importante des biais de 45 % à 3 % au Vietnam et des améliorations significatives dans la représentation des indices de précipitations (IP) après l'application de la technique QM. De plus, la moyenne d'ensemble des produits de la C.-B. a généralement mieux réussi qu'un membre individuel de la C.-B. à capturer la distribution spatiale des IP. Un état plus sec avec une pause pluviométrique plus longue et des événements pluviométriques consécutifs plus courts sont attendus sur le nord et le centre du Vietnam pendant leurs saisons humides respectives au milieu du futur. En outre, cette étude a montré que la méthode QM modifiait peu les changements futurs des IP sur la majeure partie du Vietnam ; ainsi, ces projections corrigées pourraient être utilisées dans les études d'impacts climatiques et d'adaptation. La técnica de corrección de sesgo (BC) del mapeo cuantitativo (QM) se aplicó por primera vez para abordar los sesgos en la precipitación simulada sobre Vietnam a partir del Modelo Climático Regional (RegCM) impulsado por cinco productos del Modelo Climático Global (GCM) del Proyecto de Intercomparación de Modelos Acoplados Fase 5 (CMIP5). El proceso de GC se implementó para el período 1986-2005 y posteriormente se aplicó al período de medio futuro 2046-2065 bajo la Ruta de Concentración Representativa (RCP) 4.5 y RCP 8.5. La comparación con los resultados del modelo original durante el período de validación independiente muestra una gran reducción del sesgo del 45% al 3% sobre Vietnam y mejoras significativas en la representación de los índices de precipitación (IP) después de aplicar la técnica de GC. Además, la media del conjunto de los productos de BC generalmente se desempeñó mejor que un miembro individual de BC en la captura de la distribución espacial de los IP. Se prevé una condición más seca con una pausa de lluvia más larga y eventos de lluvia consecutivos más cortos en el norte y centro de Vietnam durante sus respectivas estaciones húmedas en el futuro medio. Además, este estudio mostró que el método de GC modificó mínimamente los cambios futuros en los IP en la mayor parte de Vietnam; por lo tanto, estas proyecciones corregidas podrían usarse en estudios de impacto climático y adaptación. The Quantile Mapping (QM) bias correction (BC) technique was applied for the first time to address biases in the simulated precipitation over Vietnam from the Regional Climate Model (RegCM) driven by five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Global Climate Model (GCM) products. The QM process was implemented for the period 1986-2005, and subsequently applied to the mid-future period 2046-2065 under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Comparison with the original model outputs during the independent validation period shows a large bias reduction from 45% to 3% over Vietnam and significant improvements in representing precipitation indices (PI) after applying the QM technique. Moreover, the ensemble average of the BC products generally performed better than an individual BC member in capturing the spatial distribution of the PIs. A drier condition with a longer rainfall break, and shorter consecutive rainfall events are anticipated over Northern and Central Vietnam during their respective wet seasons in the mid-future. Furthermore, this study showed that the QM method minimally modified the future changes in PIs over most of Vietnam; thus, these corrected projections could be used in climate impacts and adaptation studies. تم تطبيق تقنية تصحيح التحيز لرسم الخرائط الكمية لأول مرة لمعالجة التحيزات في محاكاة هطول الأمطار على فيتنام من نموذج المناخ الإقليمي (RegCM) مدفوعًا بخمسة منتجات من المرحلة الخامسة من مشروع المقارنة بين النماذج (CMIP5) لنموذج المناخ العالمي (GCM). تم تنفيذ عملية إدارة الجودة للفترة 1986-2005، وتم تطبيقها لاحقًا على فترة منتصف المستقبل 2046-2065 بموجب كل من مسار التركيز التمثيلي (RCP) 4.5 و RCP 8.5. تُظهر المقارنة مع مخرجات النموذج الأصلي خلال فترة التحقق المستقلة انخفاضًا كبيرًا في التحيز من 45 ٪ إلى 3 ٪ مقارنة بفيتنام وتحسينات كبيرة في تمثيل مؤشرات هطول الأمطار (PI) بعد تطبيق تقنية إدارة الجودة. علاوة على ذلك، كان متوسط مجموعة منتجات BC بشكل عام أفضل من عضو BC الفردي في التقاط التوزيع المكاني للمؤشرات الرئيسية. من المتوقع أن تكون الحالة أكثر جفافًا مع هطول أمطار أطول، وأحداث هطول أمطار أقصر متتالية على شمال ووسط فيتنام خلال مواسم الأمطار الخاصة بكل منهما في منتصف المستقبل. علاوة على ذلك، أظهرت هذه الدراسة أن طريقة إدارة الجودة عدلت إلى الحد الأدنى التغيرات المستقبلية في المؤشرات الرئيسية في معظم أنحاء فيتنام ؛ وبالتالي، يمكن استخدام هذه التوقعات المصححة في تأثيرات المناخ ودراسات التكيف.

This study examines the projected precipitation extremes for the end of 21st century (2081-2100) over Southeast Asia (SEA) using the output of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment - Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX-SEA). Eight ensemble members, representing a subset of archived CORDEX-SEA simulations at 25 km spatial resolution, were examined for emission scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The study utilised four different indicators of rainfall extreme, i.e. the annual/seasonal rainfall total (PRCPTOT), consecutive dry days (CDD), frequency of extremely heavy rainfall (R50mm) and annual/seasonal maximum of daily rainfall (RX1day). In general, changes in extreme indices are more pronounced and covering wider area under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. The decrease in annual PRCPTOT is projected over most of SEA region, except for Myanmar and Northern Thailand, with magnitude as much as 20% (30%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The most significant and robust changes were noted in CDD, which is projected to increase by as much as 30% under RCP4.5 and 60% under RCP8.5, particularly over Maritime Continent (MC). The projected decrease in PRCPTOT over MC is significant and robust during June to August (JJA) and September to November (SON). During March to May (MAM) under RCP8.5, significant and robust PRCPTOT decreases are also projected over Indochina. The CDD changes during JJA and SON over MC are even higher, more robust and significant compared to the annual changes. At the same time, a wetting tendency is also projected over Indochina. The R50mm and RX1day are projected to increase, during all seasons with significant and robust signal of RX1day during JJA and SON.

AbstractThis paper examines the projected changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia (SEA) in the twenty-first century based on the multi-model simulations of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment–Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX–SEA). A total of 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) have been downscaled using 7 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to a resolution of 25 km × 25 km over the SEA domain (89.5° E–146.5° E, 14.8° S–27.0° N) for two different representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The 1976–2005 period is considered as the historical period for evaluating the changes in seasonal precipitation of December–January–February (DJF) and June–July–August (JJA) over future periods of the early (2011–2040), mid (2041–2070) and late twenty-first century (2071–2099). The ensemble mean shows a good reproduction of the SEA climatological mean spatial precipitation pattern with systematic wet biases, which originated largely from simulations using the RegCM4 model. Increases in mean rainfall (10–20%) are projected throughout the twenty-first century over Indochina and eastern Philippines during DJF while a drying tendency prevails over the Maritime Continent. For JJA, projections of both RCPs indicate reductions in mean rainfall (10–30%) over the Maritime Continent, particularly over the Indonesian region by mid and late twenty-first century. However, examination of individual member responses shows prominent inter-model variations, reflecting uncertainty in the projections.