• Energy Research

This dataset contains raster data (.TIF) in probability and binary outputs of oriental honey-buzzards distribution within the wintering and breeding areas under changing climate. File Size: ~184 MB (13.8 MB in compressed ZIP file) Format File: ohb_A_B_C.tif (.tfw; .XML; .dbf) A: breeding or wintering B: timepoint and scenario. e.g., 2050ssp5 or 2010ssp2 C: binary or probability outputs. e.g., bin or prob. Note: for binary maps, value 0: non-suitable areas for OHB and value 1: suitable areas for OHB For further inquiries. Please contact: aryo_acondro@apps.ipb.ac.id

Indonesia has a large number of primate diversity where a majority of the species are threatened. In addition, climate change is conservation issues that biodiversity may likely face in the future, particularly among primates. Thus, species-distribution modeling was useful for conservation planning. Herein, we present protected areas (PA) recommendations with high nature-conservation importance based on species-richness changes. We performed maximum entropy (Maxent) to retrieve species distribution of 51 primate species across Indonesia. We calculated species-richness change and range shifts to determine the priority of PA for primates under mitigation and worst-case scenarios by 2050. The results suggest that the models have an excellent performance based on seven different metrics. Current primate distributions occupied 65% of terrestrial landscape. However, our results indicate that 30 species of primates in Indonesia are likely to be extinct by 2050. Future primate species richness would be also expected to decline with the alpha diversity ranging from one to four species per 1 km2. Based on our results, we recommend 54 and 27 PA in Indonesia to be considered as the habitat-restoration priority and refugia, respectively. We conclude that species-distribution modeling approach along with the categorical species richness is effectively applicable for assessing primate biodiversity patterns.

Changing climate will jeopardize biodiversity, particularly the geographic distribution of endemic species. One such species is the Javan Hawk-Eagle (JHE, Nisaetus bartelsi), a charismatic raptor found only on Java Island, Indonesia. Thus, it is crucial to develop an appropriate conservation strategy to preserve the species. Ecological niche modeling is considered a valuable tool for designing conservation plans for the JHE. We provide an ecological niche modeling approach and transfer its model to future climate scenarios for the JHE. We utilize various machine learning algorithms under sustainability and business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios for 2050. Additionally, we investigate the conservation vulnerability of the JHE, capturing multifaceted pressures on the species from climate dissimilarities and human disturbance variables. Our study reveals that the ensemble model performs exceptionally well, with temperature emerging as the most critical factor affecting the JHE distribution. This finding indicates that climate change will have a significant impact on the JHE species. Our results suggest that the JHE distribution will likely decrease by 28.41% and 40.16% from the current JHE distribution under sustainability and BAU scenarios, respectively. Furthermore, our study reveals high-potential refugia for future JHE, covering 7,596 km2 (61%) under the sustainability scenario and only 4,403 km2 (35%) under the BAU scenario. Therefore, effective management and planning, including habitat restoration, refugia preservation, habitat connectivity, and local community inclusivity, should be well-managed to achieve JHE conservation targets.

Indonesia is declared by the United Nations as a country that meets its conservation targets. However, Indonesia has not maximized the potential conservation of its territory, and the ecosystem is still threatened by anthropogenic activity, particularly due to small and large scales cultivation. Besides, the Government of Indonesia (GoI) built taskforces at the national level to avoid greenhouse gas emissions through FOLU Net Sink 2030 that could tackle climate and biodiversity crises. Therefore, identifying OECMs and creating a sustainable management framework by elaborating on the carbon pool and its dynamics across the Indonesian landscape is crucial to meet the targets of the global conservation agenda. Kampar Kerumutan Landscape (KKL) is one of the critical landscapes in Indonesia with high potential conservation for biodiversity and high intervention from various concessions. Our result showed that most KKLs were categorized as potential restoration areas. Industrial forest plantations (IFP) had the highest threat for conservation. To connect the potential highly conserved areas within KKL for species mobility, restoration projects (particularly in IFP, Protected Areas, and Non-managed areas) should be conducted to achieve human and nature balance in the KKL.