• Energy Research

Sea-level rise is an inevitable consequence of climate change and threatens coastal ecosystems, particularly intertidal habitats that are constrained by landward development. Intertidal habitats support significant biodiversity, but also provide natural buffers from climate-threats such as increased storm events. Predicting the effects of climate scenarios on coastal ecosystems is important for understanding both the degree of habitat loss for associated ecological communities and the risk of the loss of coastal buffer zones. We take a novel approach by combining remote sensing with the IUCN Red List of Ecosystem criteria to assess this impact. We quantified the extent of horizontal intertidal rocky shores along ~200 km of coastline in Eastern Australia using GIS and remote-sensing (LiDAR) and used this information to predict changes in extent under four different climate change driven sea-level rise scenarios. We then applied the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems Criterion C2 (habitat degradation over the next 50 years based on change in an abiotic variable) to estimate the status of this ecosystem using the Hawkesbury Shelf Marine Bioregion as a test coastline. We also used four individual rocky shores as case studies to investigate the role of local topography in determining the severity of sea-level rise impacts. We found that, if the habitat loss within the study area is representative of the entire bioregion, the IUCN status of this ecosystem is 'near threatened', assuming that an assessment of the other criteria would return lower categories of risk. There was, however, high spatial variability in this effect. Rocky shores with gentle slopes had the highest projected losses of area whereas rocky shores expanding above the current intertidal range were less affected. Among the sites surveyed in detail, the ecosystem status ranged from 'least concern' to 'vulnerable', but reached 'endangered' under upper estimates of the most severe scenario. Our results have important implications for conservation management, highlighting a new link between remote sensing and the IUCN Red List of Ecosystem criteria that can be applied worldwide to assess ecosystem risk to sea-level rise.

The biodiversity of marine and coastal habitats is experiencing unprecedented change. While there are well-known drivers of these changes, such as overexploitation, climate change and pollution, there are also relatively unknown emerging issues that are poorly understood or recognized that have potentially positive or negative impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems. In this inaugural Marine and Coastal Horizon Scan, we brought together 30 scientists, policymakers and practitioners with transdisciplinary expertise in marine and coastal systems to identify new issues that are likely to have a significant impact on the functioning and conservation of marine and coastal biodiversity over the next 5-10 years. Based on a modified Delphi voting process, the final 15 issues presented were distilled from a list of 75 submitted by participants at the start of the process. These issues are grouped into three categories: ecosystem impacts, for example the impact of wildfires and the effect of poleward migration on equatorial biodiversity; resource exploitation, including an increase in the trade of fish swim bladders and increased exploitation of marine collagens; and new technologies, such as soft robotics and new biodegradable products. Our early identification of these issues and their potential impacts on marine and coastal biodiversity will support scientists, conservationists, resource managers and policymakers to address the challenges facing marine ecosystems.

AbstractSome ecosystems can undergo abrupt transformation in response to relatively small environmental change. Identifying imminent ‘tipping points’ is crucial for biodiversity conservation, particularly in the face of climate change. Here, we describe a tipping point mechanism likely to induce widespread regime shifts in polar ecosystems. Seasonal snow and ice‐cover periodically block sunlight reaching polar ecosystems, but the effect of this on annual light depends critically on the timing of cover within the annual solar cycle. At high latitudes, sunlight is strongly seasonal, and ice‐free days around the summer solstice receive orders of magnitude more light than those in winter. Early melt that brings the date of ice‐loss closer to midsummer will cause an exponential increase in the amount of sunlight reaching some ecosystems per year. This is likely to drive ecological tipping points in which primary producers (plants and algae) flourish and out‐compete dark‐adapted communities. We demonstrate this principle on Antarctic shallow seabed ecosystems, which our data suggest are sensitive to small changes in the timing of sea‐ice loss. Algae respond to light thresholds that are easily exceeded by a slight reduction in sea‐ice duration. Earlier sea‐ice loss is likely to cause extensive regime shifts in which endemic shallow‐water invertebrate communities are replaced by algae, reducing coastal biodiversity and fundamentally changing ecosystem functioning. Modeling shows that recent changes in ice and snow cover have already transformed annual light budgets in large areas of the Arctic and Antarctic, and both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems are likely to experience further significant change in light. The interaction between ice‐loss and solar irradiance renders polar ecosystems acutely vulnerable to abrupt ecosystem change, as light‐driven tipping points are readily breached by relatively slight shifts in the timing of snow and ice‐loss.

AbstractMarine protected areas (MPAs) are a primary tool for the stewardship, conservation, and restoration of marine ecosystems, yet 69% of global MPAs are only partially protected (i.e., are open to some form of fishing). Although fully protected areas have well‐documented outcomes, including increased fish diversity and biomass, the effectiveness of partially protected areas is contested. Partially protected areas may provide benefits in some contexts and may be warranted for social reasons, yet social outcomes often depend on MPAs achieving their ecological goals to distinguish them from open areas and justify the cost of protection. We assessed the social perceptions and ecological effectiveness of 18 partially protected areas and 19 fully protected areas compared with 19 open areas along 7000 km of coast of southern Australia. We used mixed methods, gathering data via semistructured interviews, site surveys, and Reef Life (underwater visual census) surveys. We analyzed qualitative data in accordance with grounded theory and quantitative data with multivariate and univariate linear mixed‐effects models. We found no social or ecological benefits for partially protected areas relative to open areas in our study. Partially protected areas had no more fish, invertebrates, or algae than open areas; were poorly understood by coastal users; were not more attractive than open areas; and were not perceived to have better marine life than open areas. These findings provide an important counterpoint to some large‐scale meta‐analyses that conclude partially protected areas can be ecologically effective but that draw this conclusion based on narrower measures. We argue that partially protected areas act as red herrings in marine conservation because they create an illusion of protection and consume scarce conservation resources yet provide little or no social or ecological gain over open areas. Fully protected areas, by contrast, have more fish species and biomass and are well understood, supported, and valued by the public. They are perceived to have better marine life and be improving over time in keeping with actual ecological results. Conservation outcomes can be improved by upgrading partially protected areas to higher levels of protection including conversion to fully protected areas.

There is the potential for climate change to interact with pollution in all of the Earth's oceans. In the fjords of Norway, mine tailings are released into fjords generating suspended sediment plumes that impact deep-sea ecosystems. These same deep-sea ecosystems are expected to undergo periodic warming as climate change increases the frequency of down-welling events in fjords. It remains unknown how a polluted deep-sea ecosystem would respond to down-welling because multiple stressors will often interact in unpredictable ways. Here, we exposed two deep-sea foundation species; the gorgonian coral Primnoa resedaeformis and the demosponge Geodia atlantica to suspended sediment (10 mg L−1) and acute warming (+5°C) in a factorial mesocosm experiment for 40 days. Physiology (respiration, nutrient flux) and cellular responses (lysosomal cell stability) were measured for both the coral and sponge. Exposure to elevated suspended sediment reduced metabolism, supressed silicate uptake and induced cellular instability of the sponge G. atlantica. However, combining sediment with warming caused G. atlantica to respire and excrete nitrogen at a greater rate. For the coral P. resedaeformis, suspended sediments reduced O:N ratios after 40 days, however, warming had a greater effect on P. resedaeformis physiology compared to sediment. Warming increased respiration, nitrogen excretion, and cellular instability which resulted in lower O:N ratios. We argue that suspended sediment and warming can act alone and also interact to cause significant harm to deep-sea biota, however responses are likely to be species-specific. Warming and pollution could interact in the deep-sea to cause mortality to the coral P. resedaeformis and to a lesser extent, the sponge G. atlantica. As foundation species, reducing the abundance of deep sea corals and sponges would likely impact the ecosystems they support.

Estuaries are one of the most valuable biomes on earth. Although humans are highly dependent on these ecosystems, anthropogenic activities have impacted estuaries worldwide, altering their ecological functions and ability to provide a variety of important ecosystem services. Many anthropogenic stressors combine to affect the soft sedimentary habitats that dominate estuarine ecosystems. Now, due to climate change, estuaries and other marine areas might be increasingly exposed to the emerging threat of megafires. Here, by sampling estuaries before and after a megafire, we describe impacts of wildfires on estuarine benthic habitats and justify why megafires are a new and concerning threat to coastal ecosystems. We (1) show that wildfires change the fundamental characteristics of estuarine benthic habitat, (2) identify the factors (burnt intensity and proximity to water's edge) that influence the consequences of fires on estuaries, and (3) identify relevant indicators of wildfire impact: metals, nutrients, and pyrogenic carbon. We then discuss how fires can impact estuaries globally, regardless of local variability and differences in catchment. In the first empirical assessment of the impact of wildfires on estuarine condition, our results highlight indicators that may assist waterway managers to empirically detect wildfire impacts in estuaries and identify catchment factors that should be included in fire risk assessments for estuaries. Overall, this study highlights the importance of considering fire threats in current and future estuarine and coastal management.