• Energy Research
• 2016-2025close

Abstract The industrial sector is one of the main energy consuming sector in Thailand, and accounted for 36.2% of total energy consumption in 2013. The increase of population and economic growth affected energy demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Thailand has the long-term climate plans related to energy saving and GHG mitigation in the industrial sector namely; Energy Efficiency Plan 2015 (EEP2015) and Alternative Energy Development Plan 2015 (AEDP2015). Both plans have the same periods and end at 2036. This paper analyzes the changes in GHG emissions during 2005-2036. Energy demand depends on population, gross domestic product, and fuel prices. The GHG mitigation can be evaluated by using Long-range Energy Alternative Planning system (LEAP) under various scenarios. The business-as-usual (BAU) scenario can be expressed as a frozen-scenario where new technology deployment and energy efficiency improvement are excluded. However, mitigation (MIT) scenarios are introduced by using the existing measures in the EEP2015 (MIT_EE scenario) and AEDP2015 (MIT_RE scenario). In this study, Thailand’s industries are categorized into eleven categories: food and beverage, textile, wood and furniture, paper and pulp, chemical, nonmetallic, basic metal, fabricated metal, construction, mining, and other industries. Fossil fuels are the main source of GHG emission accounted for 86% of total GHG emission in this industry. GHG emission will increase from 77.6 Mt-CO2eq in 2005 to 222.5 Mt-CO2eq in 2036. This study found that nonmetallic industry is the major GHG emitters. Full implementation of the EEP2015 and AEDP2015 can reduce GHG emissions by 36% and 9% in 2036 under MIT_EE and MIT_RE scenarios, respectively. Such GHG reductions can be achieved from the implementation of EEP2015, due to the financial incentives for energy performance achievement and enforcement of energy standards in the designated factories.

Abstract Solid biomass accounts for eighty percent cooking share in Nepal whereas in Thailand it accounts for nearly 40%. With the increase in income of the people in urban as well as rural areas, fuel switching from biomass to LPG for cooking has been the most prevalent. Domestic hydropower resources in Nepal have remained unutilized. Electricity based cooking is one of the option to reduce fossil fuel consumption in Nepal. Likewise, the use of biogas in rural areas can be another option to reduce LPG consumption as well as fuelwood consumption. In the case of Thailand, nearly 60 percent cooking is attributed to LPG based cooking. Shift from LPG to electric and biogas based cooking can reduce its dependency on LPG as well as dependence on biomass resources. This study aims to develop a business as usual (BAU) scenario and various levels of electric and biogas based cooking scenarios to analyze its implication on primary energy use, energy mix, electricity generation requirement and GHG emissions during 2010-2050 in the case of Nepal and Thailand. The study uses Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)/Enduse model, a long-term bottom-up energy system model as an analytical tool. In Nepal, fuelwood would remain the dominant source of energy during 2010-2050 in the residential sector in BAU. The consumption of imported fossil fuels would decrease with the use of electricity and biogas for cooking while that of domestic hydropower would increase. In the case of Thailand, the consumption of LPG would decrease while that of coal and natural gas would increase due to additional power generation. The national GHG emission level would decrease in the case of Nepal whereas it would increase in the case of Thailand.

The transport sector is one of the important contributors of increasing energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Thailand. Due to rapid development of transport infrastructure and technologies, patterns of energy consumption in this sector, as well as emissions, have changed considerably. To understand changes of aggregate energy consumption and CO2 emissions in this sector, this study employs the decomposition technique of the additive LMDI-I index method to analyze influencing factors in the road passenger transport in Thailand during 2007-2017. Results indicate that major energy consumption and GHG emissions in Thailand's road passenger transport come from sedans, vans, and taxis. The decreasing GHG emissions from fuel share and emission factors revealed the success of biofuel promotion in the road transport. The policy implication on energy efficiency and CO2 mitigation suggests that Thailand should continue promotion of energy efficiency improvement, public transport, biofuels and electric vehicles.

Abstract Energy consumption in the commercial and residential buildings in Thailand has been increasing at a rate of five per cents a year. Concerning this issue, the Thai government has launched several campaigns to promote energy saving habits and replacement of high energy efficient appliances. However, those campaigns do not demonstrate how large impact of such activities on energy saving in households. This research aims at investigation of the potential of energy savings from changing behavior and high energy efficient appliances in the detached houses in Bangkok neighborhood areas. The latin hypercube method was used to generate two hundred combinations of forty-eight variables covering occupancy schedules and energy efficient home appliances. Such data set was then used to perform total energy consumption by using the eQuest 3.65 model. The regression coefficient, s, was used to identify the most influent parameters on home energy consumption. It was found that changing behavior on higher-wattage appliance significantly affects the total energy consumption. The most significant activities affecting energy consumption are using electric fans instead of air conditioners when the room temperature is acceptable, upgrading plasma TV to LED TV, and replacing fluorescent light bulbs with LED bulbs.

Abstract Climate change is a critical issue causing awareness of greenhouse gases (GHG) emission managements in many other countries around the world. The energy sector is the highest contributor of the global GHG emissions. In 2013, it contributes about 36 percent of total GHG emissions in Thailand. In 2015, Thailand submitted the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) to the UNFCCC. The target of GHG reduction is 20 percent from the projected business-as-usual (BAU) level by 2030 in the Energy, Industrial Processes and Product Uses (IPPU), and Waste sectors; however, the level of contribution could increase up to 25 percent with support. In the roadmap of Thailand’s INDC, emission reduction in the energy sector is accounted for about 98 percent of overall reduction. The Energy Efficiency plan (EEP2015) and Alternative Energy Development plan (AEDP2015) are implemented in order to reduce not only energy consumption but also GHG emission in Thailand. Therefore, the objective of this study is to analyze the GHG mitigation potential of those measures in order to identify the effort to achieve the INDC’s target in 2030. In this study, the mitigation potential of the energy plans is divided into four scenarios. In 2030, emissions in the energy sector in BAU will be 425,649 kt-CO2eq. Moreover, in the same year, results indicate that GHG emissions can be mitigated by 47%, 23%, 30% and 29% in the SC1, SC2, SC3 and SC4 scenarios, respectively when compared to the BAU. However, the INDC plan can reduce GHG emissions by 27% in the energy sector. It implies that one of the plans should achieve at least 75% of its target and another must achieve 50% of its target, Thailand will accomplish its INDC target.

Abstract Thailand had summited its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) in 2015 and ratified the Paris Agreement in September 2016. Its INDCs stated that by 2030 GHG emissions will be reduced by 20–25% when compared to the business- as -usual (BAU) scenario by using mainly domestic renewable energy resources and energy efficiency improvement. Therefore, this paper assesses the potential of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction by the use of renewable energy in Thailand's INDCs and the economic impacts from GHG emission reduction. This paper employed the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE). Besides the BAU scenario, four mitigation scenarios are assessed at given GHG emission levels and renewable power generation targets. Results show that Thailand's INDC can be achieved under the current renewable energy target in Thailand's Power Development Plan 2015. As a result, macroeconomic loss will be small under the light GHG reduction target; however, it will be large under the stringent GHG emission reduction target. The GDP loss ranges from 0.2% in the case of a 20% reduction target to 3.1% in the case of a 40% reduction target in 2030. Thus, the availability of land for deploying the renewable energy technologies such as solar, wind and biomass needs to be assessed.

To keep global warming below 1.5 °C has become a challenging task. The Paris Agreement aims at achieving net zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the second half of this century. The objective of this study is to identify the changes needed in the technologies and energy consumption pattern in Thailand’s energy sector in order to achieve the 1.5 °C global climate goal. Multiple scenarios are drawn to consider different CO2 emission taxes, penetration of renewable energy, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and nuclear power. The AIM/Enduse model is used to quantify Thailand’s 1.5 °C climate goal. Results suggest that CO2 emission taxes of US$500 – US$1,000/tCO2 would be a significant policy instrument to foster the CO2 emission reduction. The CCS technology plays a key role to abate higher amounts of CO2 emissions in the power sector. Moreover, electric vehicle (EV) and biofuel usage in the transport sector show relevant opportunities to lower CO2 emissions. These technologies reveal challenging tasks in the case of Thailand in order to reduce CO2 emissions. The 1.5 degree climate target is feasible for Thailand; however, uncertainties remain. The uncertainties include the adoption of CCS technology, costs of EV and the reliability of renewable energy supply.

Abstract This paper aims to analyze the effects of biogas and electricity based cooking on energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) as well as local air pollutant emissions during 2010–2050 in the case of Nepal, which is highly dependent on traditional biomass (mainly fuelwood) for cooking. The country is rich in hydropower resources. A long-term bottom-up energy system model has been developed using Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Enduse (AIM/Enduse) model for the analysis. The study developed a business as usual (BAU) scenario and three alternative cooking scenarios. Three alternative scenarios, named as “CL”, “CM” and “CH” scenarios; consider low, medium and high level of penetrations of electric- and biogas-based cooking options, respectively. The changes in energy use and electricity generation in the BAU and alternative scenarios have been compared. Fuelwood consumption in the residential sector in 2050 when compared to the BAU would decrease by 12.5% in CL, 19.0% in CM and 24.2% in CH scenarios; and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) consumption would decrease by 12.8% in CL, 16.3% in CM and 19.6% in CH scenarios. The electricity generation requirement in 2050 would increase by 9.4% in CL, 13.9% in CM and 17.0% in CH scenarios. Finally, the assessment of GHG and local pollutant emissions shows the decrease in all gases in CL, CM and CH scenarios when compared to the BAU.