• Energy Research

The carbon sink potential of peatlands depends on the balance of carbon uptake by plants and microbial decomposition. The rates of both these processes will increase with warming but it remains unclear which will dominate the global peatland response. Here we examine the global relationship between peatland carbon accumulation rates during the last millennium and planetary-scale climate space. A positive relationship is found between carbon accumulation and cumulative photosynthetically active radiation during the growing season for mid- to high-latitude peatlands in both hemispheres. However, this relationship reverses at lower latitudes, suggesting that carbon accumulation is lower under the warmest climate regimes. Projections under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios indicate that the present-day global sink will increase slightly until around AD 2100 but decline thereafter. Peatlands will remain a carbon sink in the future, but their response to warming switches from a negative to a positive climate feedback (decreased carbon sink with warming) at the end of the twenty-first century.

AbstractPermafrost peatlands contain globally important amounts of soil organic carbon, owing to cold conditions which suppress anaerobic decomposition. However, climate warming and permafrost thaw threaten the stability of this carbon store. The ultimate fate of permafrost peatlands and their carbon stores is unclear because of complex feedbacks between peat accumulation, hydrology and vegetation. Field monitoring campaigns only span the last few decades and therefore provide an incomplete picture of permafrost peatland response to recent rapid warming. Here we use a high-resolution palaeoecological approach to understand the longer-term response of peatlands in contrasting states of permafrost degradation to recent rapid warming. At all sites we identify a drying trend until the late-twentieth century; however, two sites subsequently experienced a rapid shift to wetter conditions as permafrost thawed in response to climatic warming, culminating in collapse of the peat domes. Commonalities between study sites lead us to propose a five-phase model for permafrost peatland response to climatic warming. This model suggests a shared ecohydrological trajectory towards a common end point: inundated Arctic fen. Although carbon accumulation is rapid in such sites, saturated soil conditions are likely to cause elevated methane emissions that have implications for climate-feedback mechanisms.

AbstractNorthern peatlands are a major component of the global carbon (C) cycle. Widespread climate‐driven ecohydrological changes in these ecosystems can have major consequences on their C sequestration function. Here, we synthesize plant macrofossil data from 33 surficial peat cores from different ecoclimatic regions, with high‐resolution chronologies. The main objectives were to document recent ecosystem state shifts and explore their impact on C sequestration in high‐latitude undisturbed peatlands of northeastern Canada. Our synthesis shows widespread recent ecosystem shifts in peatlands, such as transitions from oligotrophic fens to bogs andSphagnumexpansion, coinciding with climate warming which has also influenced C accumulation during the last ~100 years. The rapid shifts towards drier bog communities and an expansion ofSphagnumsect.Acutifoliaafter 1980 CE were most pronounced in the northern subarctic sites and are concurrent with summer warming in northeastern Canada. These results provide further evidence of a northward migration ofSphagnum‐dominated peatlands in North America in response to climate change. The results also highlight differences in the timing of ecosystem shifts among peatlands and regions, reflecting internal peatland dynamics and varying responses of vegetation communities. Our study suggests that the recent rapid climate‐driven shifts from oligotrophic fen to drier bog communities have promoted plant productivity and thus peat C accumulation. We highlight the importance of considering recent ecohydrological trajectories when modelling the potential contribution of peatlands to climate change. Our study suggests that, contrary to expectations, peat C sequestration could be promoted in high‐latitude non‐permafrost peatlands where wet sedge fens may transition to drierSphagnumbog communities due to warmer and longer growing seasons.