• Energy Research

The terrestrial high-Arctic has, so far, escaped the worst impacts of non-native plant establishment. However, increasing human activity and changing climate raise the risk of introductions and establishment, respectively. The lack of biosecurity in the terrestrial Arctic is thus of concern. To facilitate the development of biosecurity measures on the rapidly warming and highly trafficked archipelago of Svalbard, we generated ecological niche models to map the bioclimatic niche potential of 27 non-native established or door-knocker vascular plant species across Svalbard, identify species with a high risk of widespread occupancy, and locate hotspots of potential current and future invasions. Under the current climate the three species with the highest threat in terms of broad potential area of occupancy and known invasion potential were Deschampsia cespitosa, Ranunculus subborealis subsp. villosus and Saussurea alpina. However, under future climate, most of the considered species have potentially wide distributions across the archipelago. Remote eastern islands were a hotspot region for broader potential establishment of non-native species under the current climate. Our results suggest that many non-native plant species have a broader macroclimatic niche on Svalbard than they currently occupy, and that other factors probably limit both dispersal and establishment outside their current localised distributions. Environmental management on Svalbard has a limited window of opportunity to act early in containing and preventing the spread of non-native plant species beyond the few settlements where they currently exist. Moreover, preventing introductions and establishments on the remote and rarely visited islands of Edgeøya, Barentsøya and Bjørnøya could be also a priority action to safeguard sanctuaries of the archipelago’s natural ecosystems.

Abstract Genomic adaptation and introgression can occur during the speciation process, enabling species to diverge in their frequencies of adaptive alleles or acquire new alleles that may promote adaptation to environmental changes. There is limited information on introgression in organisms from extreme environments and their responses to climate change. To address these questions, we focused on the 3 southern skua species, selected for their widespread distribution across the Southern Hemisphere and their complex history of speciation and introgression events. Our genomic data reveal that these skuas underwent diversification around the Penultimate Glacial Period, followed by subsequent demographic expansion. We identified a geographic region of introgression among species that followed a directional pattern sourced from the Antarctic continent, South America, and east to west in subantarctic islands, all converging towards the Antarctic Peninsula. The 3 skua species and admixed individuals exhibited a unique pattern of putative genes under selection, allowing adaptation to extreme conditions. Individuals with a higher proportion of Brown Skua ancestry showed signs of selection on genes related to reproductive isolation, while admixed individuals with a higher proportion of South Polar Skua ancestry displayed patterns resembling those of the South Polar Skua. Introgression may be a key mechanism of adaptation for many species that may help buffer against the ongoing climate change.

Climate change is projected to substantially alter the Southern Ocean's physical and chemical properties, thereby impacting its marine ecosystems and species, particularly those in Antarctic and sub-Antarctic regions. This study focuses on Neobuccinum eatoni, a polar marine 'true whelk' endemic to these regions, utilizing 166 spatially independent occurrence data records to model potential distribution shifts under future climate scenarios. Employing Species Distribution Models (SDMs) on spatially cross-validated occurrences, we achieved high predictive accuracy, identifying "sea water salinity range" at mean bottom depth as the most significant predictor of habitat preferences. Additionally, dissolved iron (minimum), ocean temperature (range), and pH (long-term maximum) emerged as critical factors influencing the species' modeled distribution. By 2050, future projections under the SSP2-4.5 scenario predict an eastward expansion, particularly in the Antarctic Peninsula, the Scotia Arc and the Weddell Sea, with an expansion in the latter region also predicted under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. However, in both scenarios, a reduction in habitat suitability is expected in certain sectors around the Antarctic continent and the Kerguelen Archipelago. By 2100, under the moderate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), the species is projected to move to deeper areas and lower latitudes, with notable expansions in the Weddell Sea and in the Southern Ocean surrounding the Kerguelen Archipelago. However, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, expansion is projected in the Weddell Sea and reductions in Antarctic and subantarctic regions. This study highlights the critical influence of changing salinity on N. eatoni's distribution, predicting a significant habitat reduction under high CO2 emissions scenarios (SSP5-8.5). The findings underscore the urgent need for focused research on the vulnerability of endemic marine invertebrates to develop effective conservation strategies in the face of rapid climatic changes.

AbstractAimCorrelative species distribution models (SDMs) are subject to substantial spatio‐temporal limitations when historical occurrence records of data‐poor species provide incomplete and outdated information for niche modelling. Complementary mechanistic modelling techniques can, therefore, offer a valuable contribution to underpin more physiologically informed predictions of biological invasions, the risk of which is often exacerbated by climate change. In this study we integrate physiological and human pressure data to address the uncertainties and limitations of correlative SDMs and to better understand, predict and manage biological invasions.LocationWestern archipelagos of the Southern Ocean and martime Antarctica.TaxonEretmoptera murphyi (Chironomidae), invertebrates.MethodsMahalanobis Distances were used for correlative SDM construction for a species with few records. A mechanistic SDM was built around different fitness components (larval survival and life stage progression) as a function of temperature. SDM predictions were combined with human activity levels in Antarctica to generate a site vulnerability index to the assess colonization risk of E. murphyi. Future scenarios of ecophysiological suitability were built around the warming trends in the region.ResultsBoth SDMs converge to predict high environmental suitability in the species' native and introduced ranges. However, the mechanistic model indicates a slightly larger invasive potential based on larval performance at different temperatures. Human activity levels across the Antarctic Peninsula play a key role in discerning site vulnerabilities. Niche suitability in Antarctica grows considerably under long‐term climate scenarios, leading to a substantially higher invasive threat to the Antarctic ecosystems. In turn changing conditions result in growing physiological mismatches with the environment in the native range in South Georgia.Main conclusionsLong‐term studies of invasion potential under climate benefit from integrating correlative predictions with physiological experiments, as the invasion potential varies depending on the area and the timescale examined. This study also highlights a conservation paradox whereby the accidental introduction of an insect represents a threat to the Antarctic ecoystems that contrasts with its endangered status at the native range.

SignificancePenguins have long been of interest to scientists and the general public, but their evolutionary history remains unresolved. Using genomes, we investigated the drivers of penguin diversification. We found that crown-group penguins diverged in the early Miocene in Australia/New Zealand and identifiedAptenodytes(emperor and king penguins) as the sister group to all other extant penguins. Penguins first occupied temperate environments and then radiated to cold Antarctic waters. The Antarctic Circumpolar Current’s (ACC) intensification 11.6 Mya promoted penguin diversification and geographic expansion. We detected interspecies introgression among penguins, in some cases following the direction of the ACC, and identified genes acting on thermoregulation, oxygen metabolism, and diving capacity that underwent adaptive evolution as they progressively occupied more challenging thermal niches.

Higher education institutions (HEIs) have been steadily progressing towards the integration of sustainable practices in their structures and operations. Several studies have reported the variety of drivers of change and the barriers to change that universities have found in the integration process. The present investigation is aimed at further characterizing and ranking the drivers for, and barriers of, sustainability integration in HEIs within their structures and operating functions. Open-ended expert opinion interviews of key sustainability leaders appointed at 45 HEIs from 10 Latin-American countries were conducted in order to learn lessons from their diverse experiences of the process. Additionally, a thematic workshop on HEI sustainability was organized to facilitate further discussions between 23 sustainability scholars and/or national coordinators of university networks from 11 Latin American countries. As a result, 15 barriers were identified as hindering the institutionalization of sustainability in HEIs. This study also examined the relationship between these reported barriers with 13 main drivers that were identified to be facilitating the integration of sustainable practices within the organizational and academic structures at the universities. The strong correspondence between the several observed drivers for, and barriers to, change highlights the importance of strategic planning that offers integrated actions. The findings of this paper can serve as a reference to assist HEIs in identifying drivers of, and barriers to, sustainability, so that the former can be fostered and the latter addressed effectively. This can help identify and plan targeted actions to make the transition towards sustainability in HEIs more natural and effective.