• Energy Research

Advances in the phenology of organisms are often attributed to climate change, but alternatively, may reflect a publication bias towards advances and may be caused by environmental factors unrelated to climate change. Both factors are investigated using the breeding dates of 25 long-term studied populations of Ficedula flycatchers across Europe. Trends in spring temperature varied markedly between study sites, and across populations the advancement of laying date was stronger in areas where the spring temperatures increased more, giving support to the theory that climate change causally affects breeding date advancement.

AbstractThe increase in spring temperatures in temperate regions over the last two decades has led to an advancing spring phenology, and most resident birds have responded to it by advancing their onset of breeding. The pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca) is a long‐distance migrant bird with a relatively late onset of breeding with respect to both resident birds and spring phenology in Europe. In the present correlational study, we show that some fitness components of pied flycatchers are suffering from climate change in two of the southernmost European breeding populations. In both montane study areas, temperature during May increased between 1980 and 2000 and an advancement of oak leafing was detected by using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to assess tree phenology. This might result in an advancement of the peak in availability of caterpillars, the main prey during the nestling stage. Over the past 18 yr, the time of egg laying and clutch size of pied flycatchers were not affected by the increase in spring temperatures in these Mediterranean populations. However, this increase seems to have an adverse effect on the reproductive output of pied flycatchers over the same period. Our data suggest that the mismatch between the timing of peak food supply and nestling demand caused by recent climate change might result in a reduction of parental energy expenditure that is reflected in a reduction of nestling growth and survival of fledged young in our study populations. The data seem to indicate that the breeding season has not shifted and it is the environment that has shifted away from the timing of the pied flycatcher breeding season. Mediterranean pied flycatchers were not able to advance their onset of breeding, probably, because they are constrained by their late arrival date and their restricted high altitude breeding habitat selection near the southern border of their range.

Climate change affects timing of reproduction in many bird species, but few studies have investigated its influence on annual reproductive output. Here, we assess changes in the annual production of young by female breeders in 201 populations of 104 bird species (N = 745,962 clutches) covering all continents between 1970 and 2019. Overall, average offspring production has declined in recent decades, but considerable differences were found among species and populations. A total of 56.7% of populations showed a declining trend in offspring production (significant in 17.4%), whereas 43.3% exhibited an increase (significant in 10.4%). The results show that climatic changes affect offspring production through compounded effects on ecological and life history traits of species. Migratory and larger-bodied species experienced reduced offspring production with increasing temperatures during the chick-rearing period, whereas smaller-bodied, sedentary species tended to produce more offspring. Likewise, multi-brooded species showed increased breeding success with increasing temperatures, whereas rising temperatures were unrelated to reproductive success in single-brooded species. Our study suggests that rapid declines in size of bird populations reported by many studies from different parts of the world are driven only to a small degree by changes in the production of young.

9 pages, 5 figures, 1 table.-- Article in press. Trends in the onset of breeding, clutch size and numbers of hatchlings and fledglings are examined for a Mediterranean montane population of Blue Tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) subject to recent warming in springtime monitored during 20 years. Blue Tits advanced their breeding dates in relation to mean air temperatures in April and, as a consequence, laid larger clutches. However, increases in the numbers of hatchlings and fledged young over time were not statistically significant after accounting for variables of influence. The entire breeding season seems to have been displaced towards earlier dates by adjusting breeding time to increased temperatures in prebreeding time, to which Blue Tits have been more responsive than Pied Flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) in the same area. The alternative hypothesis, that interference competition with Pied Flycatchers for nestboxes and caterpillars, the main common food base of nestlings, has been the driving force behind the advancement of laying of the Blue Tit population, was not supported. However, the significant advance of breeding dates in Blue Tits has not been sufficient to overcome the precipitous decline in reproductive fitness with the advancement of the season. I was supported during writing by projects PAC05-006-2 (to J.A. Dávila), CGL2004-04479/BOS (to J.A. Fargallo) and CGL2006-07481/BOS (to J.C. Senar). Peer reviewed