• Energy Research

Abstract Grasslands cover approximately a third of the Earth’s land surface and account for about a third of terrestrial carbon storage. Yet, we lack strong predictive models of grassland plant biomass, the primary source of carbon in grasslands. This lack of predictive ability may arise from the assumption of linear relationships between plant biomass and the environment and an underestimation of interactions of environmental variables. Using data from 116 grasslands on six continents, we show unimodal relationships between plant biomass and ecosystem characteristics, such as mean annual precipitation and soil nitrogen. Further, we found that soil nitrogen and plant diversity interacted in their relationships with plant biomass, such that plant diversity and biomass were positively related at low levels of nitrogen and negatively at elevated levels of nitrogen. Our results show that it is critical to account for the interactive and unimodal relationships between plant biomass and several environmental variables to accurately include plant biomass in global vegetation and carbon models.

Plant biomass tends to increase under nutrient addition and decrease under drought. Biotic and abiotic factors influence responses to both, making the combined impact of nutrient addition and drought difficult to predict. Using a globally distributed network of manipulative field experiments, we assessed grassland aboveground biomass response to both drought and increased nutrient availability at 26 sites across nine countries. Overall, drought reduced biomass by 19% and nutrient addition increased it by 24%, resulting in no net impact under combined drought and nutrient addition. Among the plant functional groups, only graminoids responded positively to nutrients during drought. However, these general responses depended on local conditions, especially aridity. Nutrient effects were stronger in arid grasslands and weaker in humid regions and nitrogen-rich soils, although nutrient addition alleviated drought effects the most in subhumid sites. Biomass responses were weaker with higher precipitation variability. Biomass increased more with increased nutrient availability and declined more with drought at high-diversity sites than at low-diversity sites. Our findings highlight the importance of local abiotic and biotic conditions in predicting grassland responses to anthropogenic nutrient and climate changes.