• Energy Research

SummaryRecent observations suggest that repeated fires could drive Mediterranean forests to shrublands, hosting flammable vegetation that regrows quickly after fire. This feedback supposedly favours shrubland persistence and may be strengthened in the future by predicted increased aridity. An assessment was made of how fires and aridity in combination modulated the dynamics of Mediterranean ecosystems and whether the feedback could be strong enough to maintain shrubland as an alternative stable state to forest.A model was developed for vegetation dynamics, including stochastic fires and different plant fire‐responses. Parameters were calibrated using observational data from a period up to 100 yr ago, from 77 sites with and without fires in Southeast Spain and Southern France.The forest state was resilient to the separate impact of fires and increased aridity. However, water stress could convert forests into open shrublands by hampering post‐fire recovery, with a possible tipping point at intermediate aridity.Projected increases in aridity may reduce the resilience of Mediterranean forests against fires and drive post‐fire ecosystem dynamics toward open shrubland. The main effect of increased aridity is the limitation of post‐fire recovery. Including plant fire‐responses is thus fundamental when modelling the fate of Mediterranean‐type vegetation under climate‐change scenarios.

SummaryRecent observations suggest that repeated fires could drive Mediterranean forests to shrublands, hosting flammable vegetation that regrows quickly after fire. This feedback supposedly favours shrubland persistence and may be strengthened in the future by predicted increased aridity. An assessment was made of how fires and aridity in combination modulated the dynamics of Mediterranean ecosystems and whether the feedback could be strong enough to maintain shrubland as an alternative stable state to forest.A model was developed for vegetation dynamics, including stochastic fires and different plant fire‐responses. Parameters were calibrated using observational data from a period up to 100 yr ago, from 77 sites with and without fires in Southeast Spain and Southern France.The forest state was resilient to the separate impact of fires and increased aridity. However, water stress could convert forests into open shrublands by hampering post‐fire recovery, with a possible tipping point at intermediate aridity.Projected increases in aridity may reduce the resilience of Mediterranean forests against fires and drive post‐fire ecosystem dynamics toward open shrubland. The main effect of increased aridity is the limitation of post‐fire recovery. Including plant fire‐responses is thus fundamental when modelling the fate of Mediterranean‐type vegetation under climate‐change scenarios.

Ring shaped patches of clonal plants have been reported in different environments, but the mechanisms underlying such pattern formation are still poorly explained. Water depletion in the inner tussocks zone has been proposed as a possible cause, although ring patterns have been also observed in ecosystems without limiting water conditions. In this work, a spatially explicit model is presented in order to investigate the role of negative plant-soil feedback as an additional explanation for ring formation. The model describes the dynamics of the plant biomass in the presence of toxicity produced by the decomposition of accumulated litter in the soil. Our model qualitatively reproduces the emergence of ring patterns of a single clonal plant species during colonisation of a bare substrate. The model admits two homogeneous stationary solutions representing bare soil and uniform vegetation cover which depend only on the ratio between the biomass death and growth rates. Moreover, differently from other plant spatial patterns models, but in agreement with real field observations of vegetation dynamics, we demonstrated that the pattern dynamics always lead to spatially homogeneous vegetation covers without creation of stable Turing patterns. Analytical results show that ring formation is a function of two main components, the plant specific susceptibility to toxic compounds released in the soil by the accumulated litter and the decay rate of these same compounds, depending on environmental conditions. These components act at the same time and their respective intensities can give rise to the different ring structures observed in nature, ranging from slight reductions of biomass in patch centres, to the appearance of marked rings with bare inner zones, as well as the occurrence of ephemeral waves of plant cover. Our results highlight the potential role of plant-soil negative feedback depending on decomposition processes for the development of transient vegetation patterns.

Ring shaped patches of clonal plants have been reported in different environments, but the mechanisms underlying such pattern formation are still poorly explained. Water depletion in the inner tussocks zone has been proposed as a possible cause, although ring patterns have been also observed in ecosystems without limiting water conditions. In this work, a spatially explicit model is presented in order to investigate the role of negative plant-soil feedback as an additional explanation for ring formation. The model describes the dynamics of the plant biomass in the presence of toxicity produced by the decomposition of accumulated litter in the soil. Our model qualitatively reproduces the emergence of ring patterns of a single clonal plant species during colonisation of a bare substrate. The model admits two homogeneous stationary solutions representing bare soil and uniform vegetation cover which depend only on the ratio between the biomass death and growth rates. Moreover, differently from other plant spatial patterns models, but in agreement with real field observations of vegetation dynamics, we demonstrated that the pattern dynamics always lead to spatially homogeneous vegetation covers without creation of stable Turing patterns. Analytical results show that ring formation is a function of two main components, the plant specific susceptibility to toxic compounds released in the soil by the accumulated litter and the decay rate of these same compounds, depending on environmental conditions. These components act at the same time and their respective intensities can give rise to the different ring structures observed in nature, ranging from slight reductions of biomass in patch centres, to the appearance of marked rings with bare inner zones, as well as the occurrence of ephemeral waves of plant cover. Our results highlight the potential role of plant-soil negative feedback depending on decomposition processes for the development of transient vegetation patterns.

Arid ecosystems are expected to be among the ecosystems most sensitive to climate change. Here, we explore via model calculations how regular vegetation patterns, widely observed in arid ecosystems, respond to projected climatic shifts as provided by general circulation model output. In our model, the photosynthesis and respiration terms are explicitly linked to physiological attributes of the plants and are forced with the primary climatic drivers: atmospheric CO(2), air temperature, and precipitation. Under future climate scenarios, our simulations show that the system's fate depends on whether the enhancements to photosynthesis due to elevated atmospheric CO(2) outweigh the increases in respiration due to higher air temperatures and the increases in water stress due to lower rainfall. A scalar measure is proposed to quantify this balance between the changes in the three climate drivers. Our model results suggest that knowing how the three primary climate drivers are evolving may provide hints as to whether the ecosystem is approaching desertification.