• Energy Research

Abstract The bottom-up approach of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in the Paris Agreement has led countries to self-determine their greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets. The planned ‘ratcheting-up’ process, which aims to ensure that the NDCs comply with the overall goal of limiting global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C or even 1.5 °C, will most likely include some evaluation of ‘fairness’ of these reduction targets. In the literature, fairness has been discussed around equity principles, for which many different effort-sharing approaches have been proposed. In this research, we analysed how country-level emission targets and carbon budgets can be derived based on such criteria. We apply novel methods directly based on the global carbon budget, and, for comparison, more commonly used methods using GHG mitigation pathways. For both, we studied the following approaches: equal cumulative per capita emissions, contraction and convergence, grandfathering, greenhouse development rights and ability to pay. As the results critically depend on parameter settings, we used the wide authorship from a range of countries included in this paper to determine default settings and sensitivity analyses. Results show that effort-sharing approaches that (i) calculate required reduction targets in carbon budgets (relative to baseline budgets) and/or (ii) take into account historical emissions when determining carbon budgets can lead to (large) negative remaining carbon budgets for developed countries. This is the case for the equal cumulative per capita approach and especially the greenhouse development rights approach. Furthermore, for developed countries, all effort-sharing approaches except grandfathering lead to more stringent budgets than cost-optimal budgets, indicating that cost-optimal approaches do not lead to outcomes that can be regarded as fair according to most effort-sharing approaches.

Efforts to address the contemporary climate and energy-related challenges towards a green, inclusive, and fair transition by 2050, require the empowerment and engagement of citizens and other societal actors, as has been duly acknowledged within the recent European Union’s strategic and legislative frameworks. Citizens are anticipated to expand their role as self-consumers and contributors within energy communities, actively shaping alterations in the energy landscape, impacting both demand and supply. As a result, in recent years the concept of “energy citizenship” has emerged and gained considerable attention due to its potential to bridge the gap between energy transition policies and social participation, by placing emphasis on the importance of participatory and democratic processes in decision-making and underlining the need for a more inclusive and equitable energy system. In this context, the European Commission-funded Horizon 2020 “ENCLUDE” project aims at operationalizing the concept of energy citizenship and understand the multi-scale relationship between its various forms and decarbonization pathways across diverse contexts, with a view to provide appropriate decision-support through the application of appropriate modeling frameworks. Building on the work done previously, in this deliverable we expand and employ different modeling frameworks of the ENCLUDE modeling ensemble to extract insights regarding the decarbonization potential of energy citizenship at both the national and the supranational levels. More specifically, in past deliverables a comprehensive set of “people-centered” storylines based on identified patterns and trends of energy citizenship was designed, highlighting citizens’ perspectives and bringing them to the forefront of the energy transition: “Power to the People” (Active participation in the energy market). “Band Together” (Collective initiatives and expressions of energy citizenship). “Habitual Creatures” (Individual behavioral and lifestyle changes). “People to the Streets” (Socio-political activities of citizens). Additionally, a set of three (3) “future-world” narratives was developed, describing future systemic changes of society and economy, providing a context of potential future world evolutions that may be inhabited by citizens, namely: “A Familiar World”. “A Unified World”. “A Fragmented World”. Set to explore the decarbonization potential of energy citizenship expressions mainly manifested at the national and the supranational levels, in this deliverable, we focus on all four (4) “people-centered” storylines. Combined with the “future-world” narratives, a scenario space to study case-specific decarbonization pathways, acknowledging the depth of complexity and diversity of the European landscape was created. In this endeavor, we harnessed the power of existing models comprising the ENCLUDE modeling ensemble, as well as expanded it by developing a new modeling framework (i.e., OSeMOSYS-GR) to study different energy planning alternatives in Greece by 2050, based on different citizens’ preferences and different levels of acceptance (or opposition). Overall, we provide modeling results for the following three (3) cases: “Power to the People” by empowering prosumerism and citizen adoption of small-scale photovoltaic and residential battery energy storage systems at the Member State level by 2030. Combining “Power to the People” with “People to the Streets” storylines towards citizen preference-led energy planning alternatives and 100% renewable-based national energy systems. Decarbonizing the transport and the residential sectors in Western Europe under different “people-centered” storylines and manifestations of energy citizenship.

The process of decision-making on climate and energy policy is a challenging task, which is affected by an important number of internal and external factors that influence the dynamics of the energy system. It is critical to investigate and understand how a specific policy instrument affects various sectors and to employ model-based scenarios to examine potential environmental and energy-related trends influenced by uncertain dynamics. In this report, we have strived for the development of a comprehensive set of narratives and scenarios that will be used in the upcoming modeling exercises to produce outcomes related to the assessment of the decarbonization potential of the energy citizenship concept. In order to reach our goal, we explored the literature around the development of decarbonization narratives and scenarios, using as a starting point insights from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR1.5) and the concept of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to produce the most up-to-date and policy-relevant evidence on the contribution of energy citizenship in reaching climate neutrality. In particular, the five SSPs present a set of five qualitative descriptions of future changes in demographics, human development, economy and lifestyle, policies and institutions, technology, and environment and natural resources: SSP1: “Sustainability-Taking the Green Road” SSP2: “Middle of the Road” SSP3: “Regional Rivalry-A Rocky Road” SSP4: “Inequality-A Road Divided” SSP5: “Fossil-fueled Development-Taking the Highway” Based on the SSPs, we formulated three narratives, which describe future systemic changes of the society and economy in general, providing with “future worlds” that will be inhabited by citizens: “A unified world” (Citizens at the core of the energy transition, inclusive development). “A fragmented world” (Regional conflicts, countries prioritize domestic issues). “A familiar world” (Reference narrative). In parallel, we brought the citizens to the forefront with the aim of also building “people-centric” narratives, based on energy citizenship trends & patterns previously identified: “Power to the People” (Active participation in the energy market). “Band Together” (Collective expressions of energy citizenship). “Habitual Creatures” (Actions towards energy efficiency). “People to the Streets” (Political activities). “Business as usual” (Reference narrative). Finally, as a next step, and through the combination of “future worlds” and “people-centric” narratives, we will formulate specific quantitative scenarios, which will be modeled with the use of the ENCLUDE modeling ensemble, i.e., the Agent-based Technology adOption Model (ATOM), the Dynamic high-Resolution dEmand-sidE Management (DREEM) model, and the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). The sole responsibility for the content of this publication lies with the authors. It does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the European Union. Neither CINEA nor the European Commission is responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein.

Abstract Recent studies show that behaviour changes can provide an essential contribution to achieving the Paris climate targets. Existing climate change mitigation scenarios primarily focus on technological change and underrepresent the possible contribution of behaviour change. This paper presents and applies a methodology to decompose the factors contributing to changes in per capita emissions in scenarios. With this approach, we determine the relative contribution to total emissions from changes in activity, the way activities are carried out, the intensity of activities, as well as fuel choice. The decomposition tool breaks down per capita emissions loosely following the Kaya Identity, allowing a comparison between the contributions of technology and consumption changes among regions and between various scenarios. We illustrate the use of the tool by applying it to three previously-published scenarios; a baseline scenario, a scenario with a selection of behaviour changes, and a 2 °C scenario with the same selection of behaviour changes. Within these scenarios, we explore the contribution of technology and consumption changes to total emission changes in the transport and residential sector, for a selection of both developed and developing regions. In doing so, the tool helps identify where specifically (i.e. via consumption or technology factors) different measures play a role in mitigating emissions and expose opportunities for improved representation of behaviour changes in integrated assessment models. This research shows the value of the decomposition tool and how the approach could be flexibly replicated for different global models based on available variables and aims. The application of the tool to previously-published scenarios shows substantial differences in consumption and technology changes from CO2 price and behaviour changes, in transport and residential per capita emissions and between developing and developed regions. Furthermore, the tool’s application can highlight opportunities for future scenario development of a more nuanced and heterogeneous representation of behaviour and lifestyle changes in global models.

Recent studies show that lifestyle changes can provide an essential contribution to achieving the Paris climate targets. While some efforts have been made to incorporate lifestyle changes into model-based scenarios, the attempts are currently very stylised and included exogenously. This paper discusses current efforts to represent lifestyle change in models, and analyses potential insights from relevant scientific disciplines to improve the representation of lifestyle changes in models – including modelling specific behaviour changes, identifying cross-cutting lifestyle solutions, representing the intentions behind the changes and quantifying their impacts. As such, this research attempts to bridge the gap between qualitative and quantitative theories and methodologies. Based on the results of this literature analysis, we recommend defining lifestyle changes more harmoniously, exploring an expanded range of approaches, domains and transformative solutions, adopting a whole-systems approach, and addressing the trade-offs between the use of exogenous inputs and endogenous modelling.

Abstract The carbon emissions of individuals strongly depend on their lifestyle, both between and within regions. Therefore, lifestyle changes could have a significant potential for climate change mitigation. This potential is not fully explored in long-term scenarios, as the representation of behaviour change and consumer heterogeneity in these scenarios is limited. We explore the impact and feasibility of lifestyle and behaviour changes in achieving climate targets by analysing current per-capita emissions of transport and residential sectors for different regions and consumer segments within one of the regions, namely Japan. We compare these static snapshots to changes in per-capita emissions from consumption and technology changes in long-term mitigation scenarios. The analysis shows less need for reliance on technological solutions if consumption patterns become more sustainable. Furthermore, a large share of Japanese consumers is characterised by consumption patterns consistent with those in scenarios that achieve ambitious climate targets, especially regarding transport. The varied lifestyles highlight the importance of representing consumer heterogeneity in models and further analyses.