• Energy Research

This publication brings together the major recommendations for the initial memorandum for the Spatial Implementation Plan (SIP) for the Oudland Polder (phase 1) arising from the European COASTAL Horizon 2020 project. They are based on a far-seeing exploration of the future, up to 2100, in which a range of societal developments were explored. This means that we reviewed, for example, how the further urbanisation and population growth in this polder region could evolve. We also checked which agricultural practices we could expect in the Oudland Polder in the future. This implies that we had to take into account a great many uncertainties when developing these recommendations. One of the ways to do this is to work with scenarios, whether or not supported by modelling work. This means each of the recommendations on the following pages is substantiated by the insights arising from this scenario work. Furthermore, we involved a diverse group of stakeholders living and/or working in the region in this exploration of the future. Through their expertise in relation to the Oudland Polder, they provided a valuable contribution to the debate on the future of this polder region. What they brought to the table helped to contextualise and interpret results. Thirdly, where possible, we also made the link between European and Flemish policy lines that are aimed at the longer term and present some clear objectives for the coming decades. This means the recommendations presented in this publication are a synthesis of research combining both qualitative and quantitative work, and in which modelling work builds upon a direct dialogue with stakeholders, but has also fed into it. We would therefore like to expressly thank all the stakeholders and experts who have made us familiar with the Oudland Polder in recent years, in particular the staff at the VLM. We also extend our sincere thanks to everyone who took part in one of the workshops, gave feedback on publications or took the time to work with us on the various scenarios referred to in this publication.

This System Dynamics model was developed together with the Flemish Land Agency (VLM) to obtain a high-level, systemic understanding of the mid- and long-term impacts of water management actions for the Oudlandpolder in Belgium in the framework of the new Spatial Implementation Plan, aimed at climate robust and balanced land and water management (see https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7081821). The model is based on two artificial compartments, one for agriculture and one for nature, and driven by scenarios for climate change, land use and crop schemes. Water levels in the agriculture and nature compartment are optimized based on monthly target levels and day-to-day decisions on water management actions such as canal water intake, sea discharge and creek ridge water extraction or infiltration. The model uses a time horizon of 80 years (2020-2100) and a time step of 1 day, to align with the practice of water management decisions (such as the opening of sluices). The model uses diverse data related to land use cover change, climate change, water management, and crop farming. Important data sources include: the Flemish Institute for Technological Research (VITO) for meteorological forecasts for different climate change scenarios, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) for crop factors and the Flemish Land Agency (VLM) for water control parameters. Driving scenarios are based on the Shared-Social Economic Pathways (for crop schemes and land use patterns, see https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7081500 ), the VITO RuimteModel for land use change (see https://vito.be/en/product/geodynamix-spatial-modelling-tools), RCP-based projections for temperature, potential evapotranpiration and precipitation, and related sea level projections obtained from Fox-Kemper, B., et al., 2021, Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Masson-Delmotte, V., P., et al. (eds.)). Cambridge University Press. In Press. Although basic hydrological principles are respected the model is still under development and a groundwater module is needed to ensure the model will replicate the behavior of the real water system correctly. It should be emphasized that the model is, ultimately, designed to be complementary to operational hydrological models. A correctly functioning hydrological model core is essential for further development of the model which will include social and environmental factors such as rural gentrification and ecosystem services in a fully dynamic manner with consideration for potential system feedback mechanisms. The model was developed with the VenSim PLP software. It cannot be used with free VenSim PLE license due to the use of external data (xls). For further information on VenSim see https://vensim.com/

This publication brings together the major recommendations for the initial memorandum for the Spatial Implementation Plan (SIP) for the Oudland Polder (phase 1) arising from the European COASTAL Horizon 2020 project. They are based on a far-seeing exploration of the future, up to 2100, in which a range of societal developments were explored. This means that we reviewed, for example, how the further urbanisation and population growth in this polder region could evolve. We also checked which agricultural practices we could expect in the Oudland Polder in the future. This implies that we had to take into account a great many uncertainties when developing these recommendations. One of the ways to do this is to work with scenarios, whether or not supported by modelling work. This means each of the recommendations on the following pages is substantiated by the insights arising from this scenario work. Furthermore, we involved a diverse group of stakeholders living and/or working in the region in this exploration of the future. Through their expertise in relation to the Oudland Polder, they provided a valuable contribution to the debate on the future of this polder region. What they brought to the table helped to contextualise and interpret results. Thirdly, where possible, we also made the link between European and Flemish policy lines that are aimed at the longer term and present some clear objectives for the coming decades. This means the recommendations presented in this publication are a synthesis of research combining both qualitative and quantitative work, and in which modelling work builds upon a direct dialogue with stakeholders, but has also fed into it.