• Energy Research

This study investigates the accuracy of the modelled heat demand in a heat atlas compared to metered data. The Danish heat atlas is compared to metered heat demand values from more than 1 million buildings. The calculated heat demands of single buildings in the heat atlas are compared to metered data of the actual buildings. Statistical analysis is applied to the two datasets, to investigate how well the heat atlas predicts the actual heat consumption and how accurate it is for different sized groups of buildings and groups consisting of different building types. The study results in a higher certainty and better knowledge of the accuracy of the results. In this way, the utilization of the tool in actual planning for the Danish heating sector is improved. Furthermore, by identifying in which areas or building types the heat atlas is lacking accuracy it is possible to consider this in the results of calculations using the tool. The results indicate that the estimates of the heat atlas mainly can be considered valid for single-family buildings, but for other categories, there are larger uncertainties and thus the heat atlas should be used with more caution in those areas. International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management, Vol 23 (2019)

District heating (DH) is an important technology in future smart energy systems as it allows for an efficient implementation of various renewable energy sources. As DH develops towards lower temperatures and renewable electricity production increases, new types of heat sources become relevant. Thus, the aim of this article is to assess the potential for utilizing four unconventional excess heat (UEH) sources in DH systems, namely: Data centers, wastewater treatment, metros and service sector buildings. The main method used to assess the UEH potentials is an energy system analysis focusing on the availability and economic feasibility of utilizing the UEH sources in national contexts. The analysis consists of 2015 and 2050 scenarios for Germany, Spain and France. The results show a potential for utilizing the UEH potentials in all three countries, both in 2015 and 2050 systems. The potentials are highest in the 2050 scenarios, primarily due to larger DH shares. Furthermore, the potentials are limited by competition with other heat supply sources, conjunction with heat demands and feasible heat pump operation. In conclusion, the four UEH sources could impact the local DH systems, but in a national energy system context they are expected to play a minor role.

Global strategies to combat climate change must be implemented through actions at the local level. The complexity and interconnection of the global challenges are, however, difficult to interpret at the local level. This requires enhanced collaboration and coordination together with a shared understanding of the interconnected nature of our energy systems and the strategies that shape them. Global, international, and national strategies for carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) have emerged in recent years as carbon is increasingly outlined as a key element in the future energy system. This emphasizes CCUS strategies as an important part of a transition toward a fully decarbonized society. Therefore, principal strategies for CCUS and the energy system need to be coordinated and translated following a spatiotemporal assessment to enable meaningful actions at the local level. This article applies a regional perspective, in which a regional energy system model seeks to bridge the gap between national and local energy planning. The regional energy system is developed as part of an overarching national scenario for the transition towards a fully decarbonized society. This context provides a national boundary shaped by a global ceiling to provide a meaningful and adequate framework for regional and local development in the future. The overarching national scenario frames the potentials and constraints of the regional energy system and CCUS strategies as part of a global transition while enabling investigations of potential ramifications from changes in national objectives. The analysis in the article uses the North Denmark Region as a case and investigates scenarios in which the region assumes various roles as a contributor to the national transition. The results indicate a need for more interactive and dynamic energy planning and CCUS strategies to comprehend possible impacts from the various roles and changes in the national objectives. This article suggests that spatial and temporal awareness at the regional level of CCUS strategies as part of a future fully decarbonized society is key to creating a meaningful context for local actions today.

The energy transition rests on several pillars including the electrification of heating, transportation, and industry to enable the better exploitation of renewable energy sources. This changes the geography of the energy system, where power changes from being centrally produced to being more geographically distributed. The electrification will add new, large point demands to the electricity system. The distributed generation, point demands and a higher level of electricity transit all suggest grid impacts beyond design levels. Concurrently, the transition relies on coordinated actions at local and national levels with potential mismatch issues. This article probes into these developments for a larger Danish region. Based on a survey of local actions, it investigates whether the transmission grid can withstand the changes and to what extent grid limitations create barriers for industrial development. The work is based on geographical information system (GIS)-based analyses of production and demand, survey-based stakeholder consultation to unveil expected demand and production development, and grid analyses. Results indicate that the transmission system limits the development, and that permissions should not only be based on local conditions as reported by municipalities but should also factor in spatially distributed national targets. This thus calls for improved coordination between administrative levels.

Six different strategies have recently been proposed for the European Union (EU) energy system in the European Commission's report, Energy Roadmap 2050. The objective for these strategies is to identify how the EU can reach its target of an 80% reduction in annual greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 compared to 1990 levels. None of these scenarios involve the large-scale implementation of district heating, but instead they focus on the electrification of the heating sector (primarily using heat pumps) and/or the large-scale implementation of electricity and heat savings. In this paper, the potential for district heating in the EU between now and 2050 is identified, based on extensive and detailed mapping of the EU heat demand and various supply options. Subsequently, a new ‘district heating plus heat savings’ scenario is technically and economically assessed from an energy systems perspective. The results indicate that with district heating, the EU energy system will be able to achieve the same reductions in primary energy supply and carbon dioxide emissions as the existing alternatives proposed. However, with district heating these goals can be achieved at a lower cost, with heating and cooling costs reduced by approximately 15%.

Moving towards carbon-neutral societies, both nuclear and renewable energy can potentially supply CO2-free electricity. While the cost of renewable energy has decreased significantly, the cost of nuclear has, however, increased in the past decades and now in general exceeds the cost of renewables. However, one cannot compare directly the per unit cost of electricity since temporal behavior in the electricity production differs substantially between the two groups of technologies. Nuclear power inherently aims to provide a constant base load supply of electricity, while renewables generally depend on weather patterns. Thus, the two have different requirements and impact the overall system costs differently regarding flexibility and system design. Focusing on the case of Denmark, this article investigates a future fully sector-coupled energy system in a carbon-neutral society and compares the operation and costs of renewables and nuclear-based energy systems. The study finds that investments in flexibility in the electricity supply are needed in both systems due to the constant production pattern of nuclear and the variability of renewable energy sources. However, the scenario with high nuclear implementation is 1.2 billion EUR more expensive annually compared to a scenario only based on renewables, with all systems completely balancing supply and demand across all energy sectors in every hour. For nuclear power to be cost competitive with renewables an investment cost of 1.55 MEUR/MW must be achieved, which is substantially below any cost projection for nuclear power.