• Energy Research

Damage probability maps for offshore wind turbines exposed to tropical cyclones (TCs) under both historical and future climate scenarios along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts are presented in this dataset. TCs are generated using The Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT), forced by CMIP6 historical and future global climate simulations. Maximum wind speeds for 20- and 50-year TCs are processed through a fragility function specific to offshore wind (OSW) turbines in order to estimate the probability of damage – specifically yielding and buckling – based on wind speed intensity. Included data: TC wind speeds: Peak 10-min mean TC wind speed maps Damage states: Yielding and Buckling probability maps for OSW turbines Geographic coverage: U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts (up to 200km from the shoreline) Time periods: Historic (1980-2014) and Future (2066-2100) Methodology: Tropical cyclone simulation: The RAFT TC model is used to simulate storms for historical and future climates using CMIP6 environmental conditions. TC impact metric: Wind speeds associated with 20- and 50-year return period TCs are used to estimate the aerodynamic and sea wave loading on OSW turbines. Fragility functions: Wind speeds are input into a fragility function developed for OSW turbines, estimating the probability of yielding and buckling damage. Damage probability maps: The results consist of eight (8) damage probability maps representing the likelihoods of yielding and buckling to OSW turbines from 20- and 50-year TCs under historical and future climatic conditions. Potential Uses: Assessing the spatial vulnerability of OSW infrastructure to TCs Supporting decision-making for the design and siting of turbines Evaluating the impact of climate change on the risk of damage to OSW infrastructure For further insights into this dataset, users are encouraged to refer to the associated paper. This dataset offers valuable insights into the potential impact of TCs on offshore wind infrastructure, aiding in risk assessment and resilience planning for the renewable energy sector. This research was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research as part of the collaborative, multiprogram Integrated Coastal Modeling (ICoM) project. This work was also funded by the U.S. DOE, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, and Wind Energy Technologies Office (WETO). The research used computational resources from the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC), a U.S. DOE User Facility supported by the Office of Science under contract DE-AC02-05CH11231. For CMIP5 and CMIP6, the U.S. DOE’s Program for Climate Model Diagnostics and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and leads the development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Program’s Working Group on Coupled Modeling, which is responsible for CMIP5 and CMIP6, and thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available the model output. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is operated for DOE by Battelle Memorial Institute under contract DE-AC05-76RL01830.

AbstractThe primary goal of the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) is to advance the state-of-the-art of wind energy forecasting in complex terrain. To achieve this goal, a comprehensive 18-month field measurement campaign was conducted in the region of the Columbia River basin. The observations were used to diagnose and quantify systematic forecast errors in the operational High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model during weather events of particular concern to wind energy forecasting. Examples of such events are cold pools, gap flows, thermal troughs/marine pushes, mountain waves, and topographic wakes. WFIP2 model development has focused on the boundary layer and surface-layer schemes, cloud–radiation interaction, the representation of drag associated with subgrid-scale topography, and the representation of wind farms in the HRRR. Additionally, refinements to numerical methods have helped to improve some of the common forecast error modes, especially the high wind speed biases associated with early erosion of mountain–valley cold pools. This study describes the model development and testing undertaken during WFIP2 and demonstrates forecast improvements. Specifically, WFIP2 found that mean absolute errors in rotor-layer wind speed forecasts could be reduced by 5%–20% in winter by improving the turbulent mixing lengths, horizontal diffusion, and gravity wave drag. The model improvements made in WFIP2 are also shown to be applicable to regions outside of complex terrain. Ongoing and future challenges in model development will also be discussed.

Abstract. Mountains can modify the weather downstream of the terrain. In particular, when stably stratified air ascends a mountain barrier, buoyancy perturbations develop. These perturbations can trigger mountain waves downstream of the mountains that can reach deep into the atmospheric boundary layer where wind turbines operate. Several such cases of mountain waves occurred during the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) in the Columbia River basin in the lee of the Cascade Range bounding the states of Washington and Oregon in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Signals from the mountain waves appear in boundary layer sodar and lidar observations as well as in nacelle wind speeds and power observations from wind plants. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations also produce mountain waves and are compared to satellite, lidar, and sodar observations. Simulated mountain wave wavelengths and wave propagation speeds (group velocities) are analyzed using the fast Fourier transform. We found that not all mountain waves exhibit the same speed and conclude that the speed of propagation, magnitudes of wind speeds, or wavelengths are important parameters for forecasters to recognize the risk for mountain waves and associated large drops or surges in power. When analyzing wind farm power output and nacelle wind speeds, we found that even small oscillations in wind speed caused by mountain waves can induce oscillations between full-rated power of a wind farm and half of the power output, depending on the position of the mountain wave's crests and troughs. For the wind plant analyzed in this paper, mountain-wave-induced fluctuations translate to approximately 11 % of the total wind farm output being influenced by mountain waves. Oscillations in measured wind speeds agree well with WRF simulations in timing and magnitude. We conclude that mountain waves can impact wind turbine and wind farm power output and, therefore, should be considered in complex terrain when designing, building, and forecasting for wind farms.

Abstract. We investigate the sensitivity of turbine-height wind speed forecast to initial condition (IC) uncertainties over the Columbia River Gorge (CRG) and Columbia River Basin (CRB) for two typical weather phenomena, i.e., local-thermal-gradient-induced marine air intrusion and a cold frontal passage. Four types of turbine-height wind forecast anomalies and their associated IC uncertainties related to local thermal gradients and large-scale circulations are identified using the self-organizing map (SOM) technique. The four SOM types are categorized into two patterns, each accounting for half of the ensemble members. The first pattern corresponds to IC uncertainties that alter the wind forecast through a modulating weather system, which produces the strongest wind anomalies in the CRG and CRB. In the second pattern, the moderate uncertainties in local thermal gradient and large-scale circulation jointly contribute to wind forecast anomaly. We analyze the cross section of wind and temperature anomalies through the gorge to explore the evolution of vertical features of each SOM type. The turbine-height wind anomalies induced by large-scale IC uncertainties are more concentrated near the front. In contrast, turbine-height wind anomalies induced by the local IC thermal uncertainties are found above the surface thermal anomalies. Moreover, the wind forecast accuracy in the CRG and CRB is limited by IC uncertainties in a few specific regions, e.g., the 2 m temperature within the basin and large-scale circulation over the northeast Pacific around 140∘ W.

The accuracy of boundary-layer wind profiles occurring during nocturnal low-level jet (LLJ) events, and their sensitivities to variations of user-specifiable model configuration parameters within the Weather Research and Forecasting model, was investigated. Simulations were compared against data from a wind-profiling lidar, deployed to the Northern Great Plains during the U.S. Department of Energy-supported Weather Forecast Improvement Project. Two periods during the autumn of 2011 featuring LLJs of similar magnitudes and durations occurring during several consecutive nights were selected for analysis. Simulated wind speed and direction at 80 and 180 m above the surface, the former a typical wind turbine hub height, bulk vertical gradients between 40 and 120 m, a typical rotor span, and the maximum wind speeds occurring at 80 and 180 m, and their times of occurrence, were compared with the observations. Sensitivities of these parameters to the horizontal and vertical grid spacing, planetary boundary layer and land surface model physics options, and atmospheric forcing dataset, were assessed using ensembles encompassing changes of each of these configuration parameters. Each simulation captured the diurnal cycle of wind speed and stratification, producing LLJs during each overnight period; however, large discrepancies in relation to the observations were frequently observed, with each ensemble producing a wide range of distributions, reflecting highly variable representations of stratification during the weakly stable overnight conditions. Root mean square error and bias values computed over the LLJ cycle (late evening through the following morning) revealed that, while some configurations performed better or worse in different aspects and at different times, none exhibited definitively superior performance. The considerable root mean square error and bias values, even among the ‘best’ performing simulations, underscore the need for improved simulation capabilities for the prediction of near-surface winds during LLJ conditions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Abstract The 2020 wildfire season (May through December) in the United States was exceptionally active, with the National Interagency Fire Center reporting over 10 million acres ( > 40 000 km2) burned. During the September 2020 wildfire events, large concentrations of smoke particulates were emitted into the atmosphere. As a result, smoke was responsible for ∼10%–30% reduction in solar power production during peak hours as recorded by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) sites. In this study, we focus on a 9 d period in September when wildfire smoke had a profound impact on solar energy production. During the smoke episodes, hour-ahead forecasts utilized by CAISO did not include the effects of smoke and therefore overestimated the expected power production by ∼10%–50%. Here we use multiple observational networks and a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model to show that the wildfire events of 2020 had a significantly detrimental influence on solar energy production due to high aerosol loading. We find that including the contribution of biomass burning particles greatly improves the day-ahead solar energy bias forecast of both global horizontal irradiance and direct normal irradiance by nearly ∼50%. Our results suggest that a more comprehensive treatment of aerosols, including biomass burning aerosols, in NWP models may be an important consideration for energy grid balancing, in addition to solar resource assessment, as solar power reliance increases.

This data package is associated with the publication “Radiative impact of record-breaking wildfires from integrated ground-based data” submitted to Nature Scientific Reports (Kassianov et al., 2024). Data from ground-based measurements of shortwave and spectrally resolved irradiance and aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the visible and near-infrared spectral ranges were assessed to quantify the radiative impact of the September 2020 wildfires that occurred in the Western United States. Data were collected in September 2020 by several ground-based instruments at the Atmospheric Measurements Laboratory (AML) located in Richland, Washington (46.3451, -119.2792). These data include (1) Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD); (2) spectrally resolved and shortwave (SW) irradiances; (3) backscatter profiles; (4) total sky images; and (5) near-surface ambient air temperatures.The data package consists of five sub-directories: (1) “AML_Ceilometer_”; (2)” AML_CSPHOT_”; (3) “AML_MFRSR_irradiances_”; (4) “AML_SW_irradiances_and_Temp_”; (5) “AML_TSI_images_”; and 6 files stored at the directory level, including the readme, file-level metadata file, and data dictionary. The file-level metadata file (the file ending in “_flmd.csv”) lists all files contained in this data package and descriptions for each. The data dictionary (the file ending in “_dd.csv”) describes each tabular column header’s unit, definition, and structure. Below are descriptions of each sub-directory:“AML_Ceilometer_” includes ceilometer data collected at the AML. These files contain the corresponding narratives of data. Details related to the ceilometer data can be found in Morris (2016). “AML_CSPHOT_” includes ascii files with high-temporal resolution (about 10-15 min) AML CSPHOT data and their daily-averaged counterparts. These two files contain the corresponding narratives of data. Details related to the CSPHOT data can be found in Gregory (2011). “AML_MFRSR_irradiances_” includes ascii files with the AML MFRSR-measured diffuse, normal, and total spectrally resolved irradiance. Details related to the MFRSR data can be found in Hodges and Michalsky (2016) and Koontz et al. (2013). “AML_SW_irradiances_+_Temp_” includes near-surface ambient air temperature and SW irradiances, namely direct normal, diffuse hemispherical, and total hemispheric (global), measured at the AML. These files also incorporate the corresponding narratives of data. Details related to the SW irradiances can be found in Andreas et al. (2018). “AML_TSI_images_” includes Total Sky Images (TSIs) collected at the AML. Details related to the TSI data can be found in Morris (2005).

Abstract. With the increasing level of offshore wind energy investment, it is correspondingly important to be able to accurately characterize the wind resource in terms of energy potential as well as operating conditions affecting wind plant performance, maintenance, and lifespan. Accurate resource assessment at a particular site supports investment decisions. Following construction, accurate wind forecasts are needed to support efficient power markets and integration of wind power with the electrical grid. To optimize the design of wind turbines, it is necessary to accurately describe the environmental characteristics, such as precipitation and waves, that erode turbine surfaces and generate structural loads as a complicated response to the combined impact of shear, atmospheric turbulence, and wave stresses. Despite recent considerable progress both in improvements to numerical weather prediction models and in coupling these models to turbulent flows within wind plants, major challenges remain, especially in the offshore environment. Accurately simulating the interactions among winds, waves, wakes, and their structural interactions with offshore wind turbines requires accounting for spatial (and associated temporal) scales from O(1 m) to O(100 km). Computing capabilities for the foreseeable future will not be able to resolve all of these scales simultaneously, necessitating continuing improvement in subgrid-scale parameterizations within highly nonlinear models. In addition, observations to constrain and validate these models, especially in the rotor-swept area of turbines over the ocean, remains largely absent. Thus, gaining sufficient understanding of the physics of atmospheric flow within and around wind plants remains one of the grand challenges of wind energy, particularly in the offshore environment. This paper provides a review of prominent scientific challenges to characterizing the offshore wind resource using as examples phenomena that occur in the rapidly developing wind energy areas off the United States. Such phenomena include horizontal temperature gradients that lead to strong vertical stratification; consequent features such as low-level jets and internal boundary layers; highly nonstationary conditions, which occur with both extratropical storms (e.g., nor'easters) and tropical storms; air–sea interaction, including deformation of conventional wind profiles by the wave boundary layer; and precipitation with its contributions to leading-edge erosion of wind turbine blades. The paper also describes the current state of modeling and observations in the marine atmospheric boundary layer and provides specific recommendations for filling key current knowledge gaps.