• Energy Research

Result data from "Mey et al (2024): Visions for our future regional electricity system – citizen preferences in four EU countries". This repository containts pre-processed survey data and inference results of our statistical models. PyMC inference results are within netCDF files (*.nc) and can be opened for example with ArviZ. Pre-processed survey data is available in Feather and CSV format. Pre-processing included cleaning and adjusting data types and applying the following fixes to the raw data: Removed dash in front of birth years and number of years within region. Transformed age to birth year if provided as age. Transformed calender year to number of years within region if provided as calendar year. Applied fixes to German postal codes. Non-destructively derived variables. If you use this dataset in an academic publication, please cite the following article: Mey, F., Lilliestam, J., Wolf, I., & Tröndle, T. (2024). Visions for our future regional electricity system – citizen preferences in four EU countries. iScience.

Abstract A recent article in this journal claimed to assess the socio-technical potential for onshore wind energy in Europe. We find the article to be severely flawed and raise concerns in five general areas. Firstly, the term socio-technical is not precisely defined, and is used by the authors to refer to a potential that others term as merely technical. Secondly, the study fails to account for over a decade of research in wind energy resource assessments. Thirdly, there are multiple issues with the use of input data and, because the study is opaque about many details, the effect of these errors cannot be reproduced. Fourthly, the method assumes a very high wind turbine capacity density of 10.73 MW/km2 across 40% of the land area in Europe with a generic 30% capacity factor. Fifthly, the authors find an implausibly high onshore wind potential, with 120% more capacity and 70% more generation than the highest results given elsewhere in the literature. Overall, we conclude that new research at higher spatial resolutions can make a valuable contribution to wind resource potential assessments. However, due to the missing literature review, the lack of transparency and the overly simplistic methodology, Enevoldsen et al. (2019) potentially mislead fellow scientists, policy makers and the general public.

Euro-Calliope is a set of models of the European energy sytem and an automatic workflow to generate them. Euro-Calliope is based on a variety of input datasets each of which describes a certain aspect of the energy system, like generation potentials, historical generation, and energy demand. The workflow building all models does not contain data but instead automatically derives input data from their source where possible. For some input datasets this is not possible and this folder includes these datasets.

Renewable electricity can fully decarbonise the European electricity supply, but large land requirements may cause land-use conflicts. Using a dynamic model that captures renewable fluctuations, I explore the relationship between land requirements and total system cost of different supply-side options in the future. Cost-minimal fully renewable electricity requires some 97,000 km2 (2% of total) land for solar and wind power installations, roughly the size of Portugal, and includes large shares of onshore wind. Replacing onshore wind with offshore wind, utility-scale PV, or rooftop PV reduces land requirements drastically with only small cost penalties. Moving wind power offshore is most cost-effective and reduces land requirements by 50% for a cost penalty of only 5%. Wind power can alternatively be replaced by photovoltaics, leading to a cost penalty of 10% for the same effect. My research shows that fully renewable electricity supply can be designed with very different physical appearances and impacts on landscapes and the population, but at similar cost. PLoS ONE, 15 (8) ISSN:1932-6203

Limiting the global mean temperature increase to 1.5 degrees C requires phasing out fossil fuel combustion almost entirely within the next three decades and replacing carbon-intensive technologies with low-carbon alternatives. Such socio-technical transitions are politically feasible only if public acceptance is sufficiently high. Here we investigate German citizens' views on the phase-out of internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) using a random forest (decision trees) classification and logistic regression model. We surveyed a demographically representative sample (N = 1,663) in 2021, finding that the majority of respondents (67%) approve of an ICEV phase-out by 2040 or hold a neutral stance. Acceptability is best predicted by the degree to which environmental problems are attributed to ICEVs, followed by respondents' willingness to abandon cars altogether or adopt electric vehicles (EVs). Our results further indicate that acceptability can be increased by providing people with information that present EVs in a more favourable, and ICEVs in a less favourable light. When the European Commission proposed to ban the sale of ICEVs by 2035, we conducted a follow-up survey to investigate whether this had influenced acceptability in Germany - with the result that it had not. In terms of concrete policies, pull measures such as public transport or electric vehicle purchase subsidies are preferred by the public over more restrictive policies such as taxes or bans. The findings of this study shed light on different dimensions of public opinion and their important implications for policymaking and the political feasibility of this socio-technical transition. Insights from this research can help policymakers in designing effective yet widely acceptable transport decarbonization policies. Climate Policy, 23 (7) ISSN:1752-7457 ISSN:1469-3062

Because solar and wind resources are available throughout Europe, a transition to an electricity system based on renewables could simultaneously be a transition to an autarkic one. We investigate to which extent electricity autarky on different levels is possible in Europe, from the continental, to the national, regional, and municipal levels, assuming that electricity autarky is only possible when the technical potential of renewable electricity exceeds local demand. We determine the technical potential of roof-mounted and open field photovoltaics, as well as on- and offshore wind turbines through an analysis of surface eligibility, considering land cover, settlements, elevation, and protected areas as determinants of eligibility for renewable electricity generation. In line with previous analyses we find that the technical-social potential of renewable electricity is greater than demand on the European and national levels. For subnational autarky, the situation is different: here, demand exceeds potential in several regions, an effect that is stronger the higher population density is. To reach electricity autarky below the national level, regions would need to use very large fractions or all of their non-built-up land for renewable electricity generation. Subnational autarky requires electricity generation to be in close proximity to demand and thus increases the pressure on non-built-up land especially in densely populated dense regions where pressure is already high. Our findings show that electricity autarky below the national level is often not possible in densely populated areas in Europe. Energy Strategy Reviews, 26 ISSN:2211-467X ISSN:2211-4688

Abstract In most of Europe, the decarbonisation of the building and transport sectors lags behind emission targets. Achieving full decarbonisation requires not only the diffusion of net-zero emission technologies but also the phase-out of technologies that emit greenhouse gases (GHG). However, implementing policy changes in these sectors can have an immediate and significant impact on people’s day-to-day life, leading to a higher risk of political backlash, as exemplified by the yellow vest movement in France. In this study, we investigate public preferences for phase-out policy packages in both sectors in Germany by conducting two conjoint experiments with 1,777 respondents in March 2022. Respondents collectively evaluated a total of 17,770 policy packages per sector, specifically targeting the phase-out of fossil fuel-based heating systems and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). We find that respondents favour earlier phase-out dates for both technologies, but the type of preferred instruments varies: while regulatory instruments like bans are preferred for heating systems, economic instruments like taxes are preferred for ICEVs. These preferences are even more pronounced in people most concerned about climate change. In addition, we find that people with higher knowledge about sector emissions tend to demonstrate higher acceptance of policy interventions and that supportive measures significantly enhance the attractiveness of policy packages. Our findings can inform the design of phase-out policy packages, potentially increasing their acceptability and political feasibility.