• Energy Research
• 2021-2025close

Expanded use of novel oil extraction technologies has increased the variability of petroleum resources and diversified the carbon footprint of the global oil supply1. Past life-cycle assessment (LCA) studies overlooked upstream emission heterogeneity by assuming that a decline in oil demand will displace average crude oil2. We explore the life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions impacts of marginal crude sources, identifying the upstream carbon intensity (CI) of the producers most sensitive to an oil demand decline (for example, due to a shift to alternative vehicles). We link econometric models of production profitability of 1,933 oilfields (~90% of the 2015 world supply) with their production CI. Then, we examine their response to a decline in demand under three oil market structures. According to our estimates, small demand shocks have different upstream CI implications than large shocks. Irrespective of the market structure, small shocks (-2.5% demand) displace mostly heavy crudes with ~25-54% higher CI than that of the global average. However, this imbalance diminishes as the shocks become bigger and if producers with market power coordinate their response to a demand decline. The carbon emissions benefits of reduction in oil demand are systematically dependent on the magnitude of demand drop and the global oil market structure.

AbstractA pressing challenge facing the aviation industry is to aggressively reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the face of increasing demand for aviation fuels. Climate goals such as carbon-neutral growth from 2020 onwards require continuous improvements in technology, operations, infrastructure, and most importantly, reductions in aviation fuel life cycle emissions. The Carbon Offsetting Scheme for International Aviation of the International Civil Aviation Organization provides a global market-based measure to group all possible emissions reduction measures into a joint program. Using a bottom-up, engineering-based modeling approach, this study provides the first estimates of life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from petroleum jet fuel on regional and global scales. Here we show that not all petroleum jet fuels are the same as the country-level life cycle emissions of petroleum jet fuels range from 81.1 to 94.8 gCO2e MJ−1, with a global volume-weighted average of 88.7 gCO2e MJ−1. These findings provide a high-resolution baseline against which sustainable aviation fuel and other emissions reduction opportunities can be prioritized to achieve greater emissions reductions faster.

There has been a notable disagreement between life cycle GHG emission estimates reported by research communities and key energy sector stakeholders as many LCA models are not validated against real operation data. This is originated from lack of collaboration and knowledge exchange between model developers and company experts. We present a pragmatic procedure for engaging company experts to advance the assumptions, models, and information used in an open-source LCA simulator (OPGEE). Using real operation and local emission factor data, two oil sands SAGD fields GHG emissions are compared rigorously against the scope 1 and 2 reported emissions. By introducing consistent region-specific input data, system boundaries, and assumptions, OPGEE carbon intensity estimates are within 1%-5% of reported data by companies. The system boundary expansion (e.g., expanding from direct emissions to also include offsite emissions from natural gas co-production, diluent source emission) impacts the GHG intensities estimates for both fields.