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This paper presents the methodology and the preliminary results of a techno-economic assessment of CCS implementation on the iron and steel sector. The results show that for the short-mid term, a CO2 avoidance cost of less than 50 €/tonne at a CO2 avoidance rate of around 50% are possible by converting the conventional blast furnace (BF) to Top Gas Recycling Blast Furnace (TGRBF). However, large additional power consumption for CO2 removal and oxygen generation, and reduction in BF gas export, makes the economic performance of the technology very sensitive to energy prices. Add-on CO2 capture for conventional BF may achieve similar costs (40 – 50 €/tCO2 avoided), but the CO2 avoidance rate will be only about 15% of the specific CO2 emissions. For the long term future, although there are large uncertainties, advanced CO2 capture technologies do not seem to have significant economic advantages over conventional technologies. The results also indicate that in a carbon-constrained society, when considering new plants, smelting reduction technologies such as the COREX process, may become a strong competitor to conventional blast furnace based steel making process when equipped with CO2 capture. Although conventional iron and steel making using BF is expected to dominate the market in the long term, strong need for drastic CO2 emissions reduction may drive the sector towards large scale implementation of advanced smelting reduction technologies.

AbstractPotentially low-cost CO2 capture may facilitate pre-commercial solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) technology entering the energy market. The aim of this study was to compare and evaluate the techno-economic performance of CO2 capture from industrial SOFC-Combined Heat and Power plant (CHP). CO2 is captured by using oxyfuel afterburner and conventional air separation technologies. The results were compared to both SOFC-CHP plants without CO2 capture and conventional gas engines CHP without CO2 capture. The system modeling was performed using Cycle Tempo software. Our results show that while SOFC-CHP without CO2 capture requires a low SOFC stack production cost of about 310$ /kW to compete with conventional GE-CHP, SOFC-CHP with CO2 capture using large scale air separation unit can compete with GE-CHP at higher stack production costs when the CO2 price is above 37 $ /t CO2. CO2 avoidance cost of 50 $ /t CO2 can be achieved at a stack production cost of 410 $ /kWe. The results indicate that CO2 capture, even with commercially available technologies, can economically facilitate SOFC entering the energy market in a carbon-constrained society.

Abstract This study investigates the stringency of Japan's greenhouse gas emissions reduction target for 2030 (nationally determined contribution: NDC), focusing on the macroeconomic assumptions of Kaya indicators and others previously overlooked, e.g. GDP per working-age population. It also conducts a decomposition analysis in light of historic political and economic events. We find that the real GDP growth assumption underlying the NDC target is unrealistic. Namely, the real GDP per working-age population, which is an indicator of productivity, needs to be improved annually by 2.5% on average for 15 years, a high level that has not been observed since the collapse of the economic bubble in the early 1990s. Based on these findings and the data from mitigation scenarios, we conclude that Japan can achieve the NDC target (26% below 2013 levels by 2030) with existing mitigation measures and by resuming operations only at those nuclear power plants that come under the conformity assessment, assuming realistic GDP assumptions. If the government enhances mitigation measures promoting low-carbon technologies that are politically affordable in terms of costs with realistic GDP assumptions, then it would be possible to achieve 27–42% of GHG emissions reduction compared to the 2013 level, including the “no nuclear” scenarios.

In this article, it was investigated whether potentially low-cost CO2 capture from SOFC systems could enhance the penetration of SOFC in the energy market in a highly carbon-constrained society in the mid-term future (up to year 2025). The application of 5 MWe SOFC systems for industrial combined heat and power (CHP) generation was considered. For CO2 capture, oxyfuel combustion of anode off-gas using commercially available technologies was selected. Gas turbine (GT-) CHP plant was considered to be the reference case. Technical results showed that despite the energy penalties due to CO2 capture and compression, net electrical and heat efficiencies were nearly identical with or without CO2 capture. This was due to higher heat recovery efficiency by separating SOFC off-gas streams for CO2 capture. However, CO2 capture significantly increased the required SOFC and heat exchanger areas. Economic results showed that for above 40–50 $ t 1 CO2 price, SOFC-CHP systems were more economical when equipped with CO2 capture. CO2 capture also enabled SOFC-CHP to compete with GT-CHP at higher cell stack production costs. At zero CO2 price, cell stack production cost had to be as low as 140 kW 1 for SOFC-CHP to outperform GT-CHP. At 100 $ t 1 CO2 price, the cell stack production cost requirement raised to 350 $ kW-1. With CO2 capture, SOFC-CHP still outperformed GT-CHP at a significantly higher cell stack production cost above 900 $ kW-1.

Abstract By September 2021, 120 countries had submitted new or updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the UNFCCC in the context of the Paris Agreement. This study analyses the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and macroeconomic impacts of the new NDCs. The total impact of the updated NDCs of these countries on global emission levels by 2030 is an additional reduction of about 3.7 GtCO2e, compared to the previously submitted NDCs. This increases to about 4.1 GtCO2e, if also the lower projected emissions of the other countries are included. However, this total reduction needs to be four times greater to be consistent with keeping global temperature increase to well below 2 °C, and even eight times greater for 1.5 °C. Seven G20 economies have pledged stronger emission reduction targets for 2030 in their updated NDCs, leading to additional aggregated GHG emission reductions of about 3.1 GtCO2e, compared to those in the previous NDCs. The socio-economic impacts of the updated NDCs are limited in major economies, while structural shifts occur away from fossil fuel supply sectors and towards renewable electricity. However, two G20 economies have submitted new targets that will lead to an increase in emissions of about 0.3 GtCO2e, compared to their previous NDCs. The updated NDCs of non-G20 economies contain further net reductions. We conclude that countries should strongly increase the ambition levels of their updated NDC submissions to keep the climate goals of the Paris Agreement within reach.

Under the Paris Agreement, countries committed to a variety of climate actions, including post-2020 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets. This study compares projected GHG emissions in the G20 economies under current climate policies to those under the GHG targets outlined in the nationally determined contributions (NDCs). It is based on an assessment of official governmental estimates and independent national and global studies. The study concludes that six G20 members (China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Russia and Turkey) are projected to meet their unconditional NDC targets with current policies. Eight members (Argentina, Australia, Canada, the European Union, Republic of Korea, South Africa and the United States) require further action to achieve their targets. Insufficient information is available for Saudi Arabia, and emission projections for Brazil and Mexico are subject to considerable uncertainty. The study also presents high-level decarbonisation indicators to better understand the current progress towards meeting the NDCs – Saudi Arabia and South Africa were found to continue increasing both emission intensity per unit GDP and emissions per capita under current policies by 2030 from 2015 levels.

Abstract This paper analysed CO 2 emission pathways for the Japanese iron and steel industry towards 2030, taking into account the likely development of process capacities that could flexibly adapt to a range of projected future crude steel production levels (“optimal capacities”) while maintaining minimum capacity utilisation rates. Coke and pig iron production capacities were optimised to the levels that enable flexible operation for 90–120 Mt-crude steel/y, compared to 110 Mt/y in 2010. Operational constraints were applied to the capacity utilisation rates (minimum of 85%) and the maximum use of coke and pig iron substitutes. This paper also assessed the implications of the aforementioned flexible operation across a range of crude steel production levels on the future scrap balances. This study calculated the optimal capacities for coke ovens and blast furnaces in 2030 to be 29 Mt-coke/y (compared to 43 Mt/y in 2010) and 83 Mt-pig iron/y (compared to 90 Mt/y in 2010). Under these optimal capacities and the aforementioned range for crude steel production levels, the projected total CO 2 emissions were 4–21% below 2010 levels. If the 2030 production level remains at 105 Mt/y, which equals the 2015 production level and the 1973–2015 average, the total emissions will be 9–16% below 2010 levels, depending on the level of emissions reduction effort. These results indicate that the industry is likely to considerably overachieve its voluntary emissions reduction target for 2030 (0.1% below 2010 levels). Moreover, it was found that the lifetime extensions for existing blast furnaces and coke ovens have limited impact on CO 2 emissions while significantly reducing the investment needs. The study also showed that the low crude steel production (90 Mt/y) combined with high pig iron and coke consumption levels to maintain minimum capacity utilisation rates may lead not only to an increase in specific CO 2 emissions per tonne of crude steel but also to a net export of obsolete scrap up to 17 Mt, which is nearly twice the historical high. Towards 2030, Japan would need to consider not only opportunities to maximize the use of steel scrap but also the development of an extended steel scrap trade infrastructure.