• Energy Research
• 2016-2025close

New synthesis shows what a wasted decade means for the climate pact made in Paris. New synthesis shows what a wasted decade means for the climate pact made in Paris.

Abstract An up-to-date techno-economic assessment was conducted on CO2 emissions reduction potential in the Japanese iron and steel industry for 2030. The following mitigation measures were investigated: (i) maximized installation of best available technologies (BAT scenario), (ii) increased use of coke substitutes in blast furnaces, and (iii) increased use of obsolete steel scrap. For measure (iii), this study assessed the obsolete scrap use in the integrated steelmaking (BF-BOF) route, rather than increasing steel production from the electric arc furnace (EAF) route. CO2 capture and storage (CCS) was not considered due to large deployment uncertainty. The results showed that 20 Mt–CO2 of emissions reductions, equivalent to 12% of the industry's total emissions in 2010, can be achieved in 2030 compared with a frozen technology scenario. More than 9 Mt–CO2 reduction was attributable to the enhanced use of obsolete scrap in the BF-BOF route. Consequently, the industry's emissions reduce by about 7 Mt–CO2 or 4% below 2010 levels. Almost all domestically recovered obsolete scrap can be fully consumed solely by increasing the scrap use in basic oxygen furnaces (BOF). Moreover, the increase in average copper concentration in the BF-BOF steel due to the increased obsolete scrap use was found unlikely to limit the production of high-quality steel products. In comparison with a scenario that only considered measure (i) and assuming a 15% real interest rate, CO2 mitigation cost curves for 2030 showed that the CO2 mitigation costs were below US$2010 20/t-CO2 for measure (ii) and around US$2010 110/t-CO2 for measure (iii). Compared to the marginal abatement costs calculated for 2030 to reduce Japan's GHG emissions by 20%–25% from 1990 levels (about US$2010 67–640/t-CO2) reported in the literature, all three measures may become economically viable. The increased use of obsolete scrap in the BF-BOF route can become an interesting option for Japanese steelmakers to stimulate the steel scrap market and achieve economical global CO2 emissions reductions while maintaining international competitiveness in the midterm future.

Abstract This study compares greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions projections in 2030 under current policies and those under 2030 mitigation targets for nine key non-G20 countries, that collectively account for about 5 % of global total emissions today. These include the four largest non-G20 fossil CO2 emitting Parties to the UN climate convention pre- Paris Agreement (Iran, Kazakhstan, Thailand and Ukraine) and one of the largest land-use GHG emitters in the world (Democratic Republic of the Congo). Other countries assessed include major economies in their respective regions (Chile, Colombia, Morocco and the Philippines). In addition to economy-wide GHG emissions projections, we also assessed the projected GHG emissions peak year and the progression of per capita GHG emissions up to 2030. Our GHG emissions projections are also compared with previous studies. On economy-wide GHG emissions, Colombia, Iran, Morocco, and Ukraine were projected to likely meet or significantly overachieve their unconditional 2030 targets with existing policies, while DRC and Thailand would come very close to their targets. Kazakhstan and the Philippines would need to strengthen their action to meet their targets, while Chile recently raised its 2030 target ambition. Only Colombia and Ukraine are projected to have peaked their emissions by 2030. Per capita GHG emissions excluding land-use under current policies were projected to increase in all countries from 2010 levels by 8 % to over 40 % depending on the country. While the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on 2030 emissions is highly uncertain, our assessment on the target achievement would not change for most countries when the emission reductions estimated for 2020 in the literature were assumed to remain in 2030. The findings of this study highlight the importance of enhanced and frequent progress-tracking of climate action of major emitters outside G20, as is currently done for G20 members, to ensure that the global collective progress will become aligned with the pathways toward Paris climate goals.

Abstract Many years passed since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, which invites countries to determine their own contributions to climate change mitigation efforts. The Agreement does not offer a standard to measure progress but relies on a process of periodic stocktakes to inform ambition-raising cycles. To contribute to this process, we compare 2021 greenhouse gas emission projections up to 2030 against equivalent projections prepared back in 2015. Both sets of projections were prepared using the same bottom-up modelling approach that accounts for adopted policies at the time. We find that 2021 projections for the G20 as a group are almost 15% lower (approximately 6 GtCO2eq) in 2030 than projected in 2015. Annual emissions grow 1% slower in the coming decade than projected in 2015. This slower growth mostly stems from the adoption of new policies and updated expectations on technology uptake and economic growth. However, around one-quarter of these changes are explained by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on short-term emissions and economic forecasts. These factors combined result in substantially lower emission projections for India, the European Union plus the UK (EU27 + UK), the Unites States, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa. We observe a remarkable change in South African projections that changed from a substantial increase to now a decline, driven in part by the planned phase-out of most of its coal-based power. Emissions in India are projected to grow slower than in 2015 and in Indonesia faster, but emissions per capita in both countries remain below 5 tCO2eq in 2030, while those in the EU27 + UK decline faster than expected in 2015 and probably cross the 5 tCO2eq threshold before 2030. Projected emissions per capita in Australia, Canada, Saudi Arabia, and the United States are now lower than projected in 2015 but remain above 15 tCO2eq in 2030. Although emission projections for the G20 improved since 2015, collectively they still slightly increase until 2030 and remain insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals. The G20 must urgently and drastically improve adopted policies and actions to limit the end-of-century warming to 1.5 °C.

One of the most fundamental questions surrounding the new Paris Agreement is whether countries’ proposals to reduce GHG emissions after 2020 are equally ambitious, considering differences in circumstances between countries. We review a variety of approaches to assess the ambition of the GHG emission reduction proposals by countries. The approaches are applied illustratively to the mitigation part of the post-2020 climate proposals (nationally determined contributions, or NDCs) by China, the EU, and the US. The analysis reveals several clear trends, even though the results differ per individual assessment approach. We recommend that such a comprehensive ambition assessment framework, employing a large variety of approaches, is used in the future to capture a wide spectrum of perspectives on ambition. POLICY RELEVANCE Assessing the ambition of the national climate proposals is particularly important as the Paris Agreement asks for regular reviews of national contributions, keeping in mind that countries raise their ambition over time. Such an assessment will be an important part of the regular global stocktake that will take place every five years, starting with a ‘light’ version in 2018. However, comprehensive methods to assess the proposals are lacking. This article provides such a comprehensive assessment framework.

Abstract This study investigates the stringency of Japan's greenhouse gas emissions reduction target for 2030 (nationally determined contribution: NDC), focusing on the macroeconomic assumptions of Kaya indicators and others previously overlooked, e.g. GDP per working-age population. It also conducts a decomposition analysis in light of historic political and economic events. We find that the real GDP growth assumption underlying the NDC target is unrealistic. Namely, the real GDP per working-age population, which is an indicator of productivity, needs to be improved annually by 2.5% on average for 15 years, a high level that has not been observed since the collapse of the economic bubble in the early 1990s. Based on these findings and the data from mitigation scenarios, we conclude that Japan can achieve the NDC target (26% below 2013 levels by 2030) with existing mitigation measures and by resuming operations only at those nuclear power plants that come under the conformity assessment, assuming realistic GDP assumptions. If the government enhances mitigation measures promoting low-carbon technologies that are politically affordable in terms of costs with realistic GDP assumptions, then it would be possible to achieve 27–42% of GHG emissions reduction compared to the 2013 level, including the “no nuclear” scenarios.

Looking at policies instead of promises shows that global climate targets may be missed by a large margin

This article reviews climate change mitigation policies implemented in five major emitting economies: China, the European Union, India, Japan and the United States. It analyses their historical performance in terms of energy system and greenhouse gas emissions indicators. In cases where policies aim to reduce future emissions, their target performance levels are assessed. The review centres on the sectors of electricity generation, passenger vehicles, freight transport, forestry, industry, buildings, agriculture, and oil and gas production. Most focus countries have implemented successful policies for renewable energy, fuel efficiency, electrification of passenger vehicles, and forestry. For other sectors, information is limited or very heterogeneous (e.g. buildings, appliances, agriculture) or there are few comprehensive policies in place (e.g. industry). The article further presents an explorative emissions scenario developed under the assumption that all countries will replicate both the observed trends in sector-level indicators and the trends that policies for future emissions reductions aspire to achieve. It shows that the global replication of sector progress would reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 by about 20% compared to a current policies scenario. All countries analysed would overachieve the emissions reduction targets in their post-2020 climate targets. However, the resulting reduction in global emissions by 2030 would still not be sufficient to keep the world on track for a global cost-effective pathway that keeps temperature increase below 2°C. The findings of this study emphasise the need for transformative policies to keep the Paris Agreement temperature limit within reach.