• Energy Research
• 7. Clean energy close

This paper reports findings from a research study which assesses the importance of attitudinal constructs related to general car attitudes and the meanings attached to car ownership over evaluations of electric vehicles (EVs). The data are assessed using principal component analysis to evaluate the structure of the underlying attitudinal constructs. The identified constructs are then entered into a hierarchical regression analysis which uses either positive or negative evaluations of the instrumental capabilities of EVs as the dependent variable. Results show that attitudinal constructs offer additional predictive power over socioeconomic characteristics and that the symbolic and emotive meanings of car ownership are as, if not more, effective in explaining the assessment of EV instrumental capability as compared to issues of cost and environmental concern. Additionally, the more important an individual considers their car to be in their everyday life, the more negative their evaluations are of EVs whilst individuals who claim to be knowledgeable about cars in general and EVs in particular have a lower propensity for negative EV attitudes. However, positive and negative EV attitudes are related to different attitudinal constructs suggesting that it is possible for someone to hold both negative and positive assessments at the same time.

The phasing out of conventional fossil fuel road vehicles is one of a number of potentially disruptive transport and energy policies. The implied technical substitution alone may be too slow to contribute meaningfully to meeting ‘net zero’ carbon reduction targets. This paper uses established modelling techniques and prospective scenario analyses in a UK case study to investigate what the impacts might be if we were more ambitious, how much disruption is needed to meet climate goals, the role of lifestyle and social change, and the potential implications for key actors in transport energy systems. Existing policies may neither hit carbon reduction targets nor make the early gains needed for a Paris-compliant trajectory. Deeper and earlier reductions in carbon and air quality emissions can be achieved by more ambitious but largely non-disruptive change of a 2030 phase out that includes (plug-in) hybrids. The earlier phase outs combined with lower demand for mobility and car ownership would make significant contributions to an emissions pathway that is both Paris compliant and meets urban air quality goals. Some disruption for technology providers, business and government can be expected in the more ambitious cases. The paper concludes by discussing key policy implications and recommendations.

It is well-known that societal energy consumption and pollutant emissions from transport are influenced not only by technical efficiency, mode choice and the carbon/pollutant content of energy but also by lifestyle choices and socio-cultural factors. However, only a few attempts have been made to integrate all of these insights into systems models of future transport energy demand or even scenario analysis. This paper addresses this gap in research and practice by presenting the development and use of quantitative scenarios using an integrated transport-energy-environment systems model to explore four contrasting futures for Scotland that compare transport-related ‘lifestyle’ changes and socio-cultural factors against a transition pathway focussing on transport electrification and the phasing out of conventionally fuelled vehicles using a socio-technical approach. We found that radical demand and supply strategies can have important synergies and trade-offs between reducing life cycle greenhouse gas and air quality emissions. Lifestyle change alone can have a comparable and earlier effect on transport carbon and air quality emissions than a transition to EVs with no lifestyle change. Yet, the detailed modelling of four contrasting futures suggests that both strategies have limits to meeting legislated carbon budgets, which may only be achieved with a combined strategy of radical change in travel patterns, mode and vehicle choice, vehicle occupancy and on-road driving behaviour with high electrification and phasing out of conventional petrol and diesel road vehicles. The newfound urgency of ‘cleaning up our act’ since the Paris Agreement and Dieselgate scandal suggests that we cannot just wait for the ‘technology fix’.

The transition to a low carbon transport world requires a host of demand and supply policies to be developed and deployed. Pricing and taxation of vehicle ownership plays a major role, as it affects purchasing behavior, overall ownership and use of vehicles. There is a lack in robust assessments of the life cycle energy and environmental effects of a number of key car pricing and taxation instruments, including graded purchase taxes, vehicle excise duties and vehicle scrappage incentives. This paper aims to fill this gap by exploring which type of vehicle taxation accelerates fuel, technology and purchasing behavioral transitions the fastest with (i) most tailpipe and life cycle greenhouse gas emissions savings, (ii) potential revenue neutrality for the Treasury and (iii) no adverse effects on car ownership and use. The UK Transport Carbon Model was developed further and used to assess long term scenarios of low carbon fiscal policies and their effects on transport demand, vehicle stock evolution, life cycle greenhouse gas emissions in the UK. The modeling results suggest that policy choice, design and timing can play crucial roles in meeting multiple policy goals. Both CO2 grading and tightening of CO2 limits over time are crucial in achieving the transition to low carbon mobility. Of the policy scenarios investigated here the more ambitious and complex car purchase tax and feebate policies are most effective in accelerating low carbon technology uptake, reducing life cycle greenhouse gas emissions and, if designed carefully, can avoid overburdening consumers with ever more taxation whilst ensuring revenue neutrality. Highly graduated road taxes (or VED) can also be successful in reducing emissions; but while they can provide handy revenue streams to governments that could be recycled in accompanying low carbon measures they are likely to face opposition by the driving population and car lobby groups. Scrappage schemes are found to save little carbon and may even increase emissions on a life cycle basis. The main policy implication of this work is that in order to reduce both direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions from transport governments should focus on designing incentive schemes with strong up-front price signals that reward 'low carbon' and penalize 'high carbon'. Policy instruments should also be subject to early scrutiny of the longer term impacts on government revenue and pay attention to the need for flanking policies to boost these revenues and maintain the marginal cost of driving.

AbstractIn recent years, global studies have attempted to understand the contribution that energy demand reduction could make to climate mitigation efforts. Here we develop a bottom-up, whole-system framework that comprehensively estimates the potential for energy demand reduction at a country level. Replicable for other countries, our framework is applied to the case of the United Kingdom where we find that reductions in energy demand of 52% by 2050 compared with 2020 levels are possible without compromising on citizens’ quality of life. This translates to annual energy demands of 40 GJ per person, compared with the current Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development average of 116 GJ and the global average of 55 GJ. Our findings show that energy demand reduction can reduce reliance on high-risk carbon dioxide removal technologies, has moderate investment requirements and allows space for ratcheting up climate ambition. We conclude that national climate policy should increasingly develop and integrate energy demand reduction measures.

Energy as a service, smart home opportunities and electrification of heat and transport can lead to new ways of switching supplier or choosing new energy contracts. Here, we used business model collaboration workshops to create archetypes of new utility business models, which were then tested with a representative sample of British energy consumers to explore their attractiveness to different segments of society. We show that some of these segments have a substantial appetite for new business models. However, the segments that choose these models are more likely to be affluent, educated homeowners. Without intervention, innovation in utility business models risks exacerbating existing social inequalities, as lower incomes, lower home ownership and low education result in lower preferences for, or no ability to engage with, new utility business models. We also find that institutional trust beyond the energy sector is a key driver of consumer segmentation.

Decarbonisation plans largely rely on the electrification of energy-intensive sectors such as transport, which has raised both concerns and hopes about the implications for (peak) electricity demand. Particularly so when it comes to the potential impact that private EV charging might have on residential demand patterns. On the one hand, the more pessimistic view suggests that this could substantially increase the demand experienced during peak periods, exacerbating the problems associated with such peaks. On the other hand, the more optimistic view suggests that mass uptake of EVs could offer the opportunity to integrate them as distributed storage units. There is evidence of the fact that synchronisation of practices associated with the use of energy-intensive devices is largely to blame for the occurrence of large peaks in demand; the question of whether this is likely to be the case for EV charging as well remains. This paper adds to the literature on the analysis of the synchronisation of energy-related practices with an in-depth analysis commuting behaviour, using driver commuters as a case study. Cluster analysis is used to identify those commuters with distinctive commuting schedules, and socio-demographic profiling of clusters is carried out with a view to identifying any meaningful correlations that could help target policy interventions. Three characteristic commuting patterns were identified, with clearly distinguishable features in terms of the timing of commuting trips. The analysis of the energy-relevant activities shows that arrival times have a noticeable impact on the scheduling and distribution of periods of engagement in such activities.

ABSTRACT A lot of policy interest and analysis has been focused on energy saving obligations on energy distributors or suppliers (mainly electricity and gas) coupled with trading of certified energy savings via tradable white certificates. While in the European Union the Energy Services Directive (2006/32/EC) also applies to transport fuels and some of the existing energy saving obligations allow certification of savings from transport projects, as of the end of 2009 no EU Member State has energy saving obligations on transport fuel distributors. The article explores the application of energy saving obligations in road transport, discussing the imposition of energy saving obligations on transport fuel suppliers, the definition of eligible technologies and projects, and considering energy saving obligations as a stand-alone tool or integrated with existing electricity and gas obligations. The article intends to open further discussion and research on the topic.