• Energy Research

AbstractLess than half of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions remain in the atmosphere. While carbon balance models imply large carbon uptake in tropical forests, direct on-the-ground observations are still lacking in Southeast Asia. Here, using long-term plot monitoring records of up to half a century, we find that intact forests in Borneo gained 0.43 Mg C ha−1 per year (95% CI 0.14–0.72, mean period 1988–2010) in above-ground live biomass carbon. These results closely match those from African and Amazonian plot networks, suggesting that the world’s remaining intact tropical forests are now en masse out-of-equilibrium. Although both pan-tropical and long-term, the sink in remaining intact forests appears vulnerable to climate and land use changes. Across Borneo the 1997–1998 El Niño drought temporarily halted the carbon sink by increasing tree mortality, while fragmentation persistently offset the sink and turned many edge-affected forests into a carbon source to the atmosphere.

Thermal sensitivity of tropical trees A key uncertainty in climate change models is the thermal sensitivity of tropical forests and how this value might influence carbon fluxes. Sullivan et al. measured carbon stocks and fluxes in permanent forest plots distributed globally. This synthesis of plot networks across climatic and biogeographic gradients shows that forest thermal sensitivity is dominated by high daytime temperatures. This extreme condition depresses growth rates and shortens the time that carbon resides in the ecosystem by killing trees under hot, dry conditions. The effect of temperature is worse above 32°C, and a greater magnitude of climate change thus risks greater loss of tropical forest carbon stocks. Nevertheless, forest carbon stocks are likely to remain higher under moderate climate change if they are protected from direct impacts such as clearance, logging, or fires. Science , this issue p. 869

Abstract At the start of the UN Decade of Ecosystem Restoration (2021–2030), the restoration of degraded ecosystems is more than ever a global priority. Tree planting will make up a large share of the ambitious restoration commitments made by countries around the world, but careful planning is needed to select species and seed sources that are suitably adapted to present and future restoration site conditions and that meet the restoration objectives. Here we present a scalable and freely available online tool, Diversity for Restoration (D4R), to identify suitable tree species and seed sources for climate‐resilient tropical forest landscape restoration. The D4R tool integrates (a) species habitat suitability maps under current and future climatic conditions; (b) analysis of functional trait data, local ecological knowledge and other species characteristics to score how well species match the restoration site conditions and restoration objectives; (c) optimization of species combinations and abundances considering functional trait diversity or phylogenetic diversity, to foster complementarity between species and to ensure ecosystem multifunctionality and stability; and (d) development of seed zone maps to guide sourcing of planting material adapted to present and predicted future environmental conditions. We outline the various elements behind the tool and discuss how it fits within the broader restoration planning process, including a review of other existing tools. Synthesis and applications. The Diversity for Restoration tool enables non‐expert users to combine species traits, environmental data and climate change models to select tree species and seed sources that best match restoration site conditions and restoration objectives. Originally developed for the tropical dry forests of Colombia, the tool has now been expanded to the tropical dry forests of northwestern Peru–southern Ecuador and the countries of Burkina Faso and Cameroon, and further expansion is underway. Acknowledging that restoration has a wide range of meanings and goals, our tool is intended to support decision making of anyone interested in tree planting and seed sourcing in tropical forest landscapes, regardless of the purpose or restoration approach.

The recent mass fruiting of forest trees in Borneo is an urgent wakeup call: existing policy instruments, financial mechanisms, and forestry infrastructure are inadequate to take full advantage of these infrequent opportunities for forest restoration and conservation. Tropical forest restoration can provide substantial benefits for biodiversity conservation, climate change mitigation, and poverty alleviation. Yet the unpredictability of the synchronized flowering and consequent mass fruiting of many forest trees in Borneo presents a distinctive set of challenges for forest restoration. Significant financing and a considerable coordinated effort are required to prepare for future mass fruiting events if we are to capitalize on opportunities for ecological restoration. The continued high rate of forest clearance in this region and the rarity of mass fruiting events suggest that there may be few remaining opportunities to prevent widespread species extinctions. In this article we propose a facilitatory policy framework for forest restoration in Borneo to stimulate action in advance of the next mass fruiting of forest trees.