• Energy Research
• 11. Sustainability close
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Abstract China's industrial transformation of the past thirty years, when its GDP has been increasing by an average of 10% per year, has been underpinned by an energy industrial revolution. Electrical energy is the driver of this transformation, with China utilizing latecomer advantages in building an electrical energy generation machine of prodigious size. In terms of electrical energy generated, China's system has expanded twelve-fold in 30 years, from 280 TWh in 1980 to over 3500 TWh in 2010. In this paper we describe the principal features of this remarkable transformation, examining the official projections to 2020, the semi-official projections to 2050, and offering our own projections based on observed logistic industrial dynamics for the uptake of renewable energies as well as the continuing role to be played by fossil fuels, particularly coal. We emphasize the role to be played by China's construction of a ‘strong and smart’ electric power grid, as envisaged in the 12th Five Year Plan released in March 2011, and the complementary proposals to build a national high speed rail system. We see China as on track to phase out fossil fuels altogether in its power production system by the end of the century. We develop an argument as to why it might be expected that fossil fuel utilization will decline while renewable energy utilization might increase in China, constituting a genuine energy industrial revolution.

Abstract China's industrial transformation of the past thirty years, when its GDP has been increasing by an average of 10% per year, has been underpinned by an energy industrial revolution. Electrical energy is the driver of this transformation, with China utilizing latecomer advantages in building an electrical energy generation machine of prodigious size. In terms of electrical energy generated, China's system has expanded twelve-fold in 30 years, from 280 TWh in 1980 to over 3500 TWh in 2010. In this paper we describe the principal features of this remarkable transformation, examining the official projections to 2020, the semi-official projections to 2050, and offering our own projections based on observed logistic industrial dynamics for the uptake of renewable energies as well as the continuing role to be played by fossil fuels, particularly coal. We emphasize the role to be played by China's construction of a ‘strong and smart’ electric power grid, as envisaged in the 12th Five Year Plan released in March 2011, and the complementary proposals to build a national high speed rail system. We see China as on track to phase out fossil fuels altogether in its power production system by the end of the century. We develop an argument as to why it might be expected that fossil fuel utilization will decline while renewable energy utilization might increase in China, constituting a genuine energy industrial revolution.

The shift to renewable energy options and low-carbon technologies, in response to the concerns over energy security and climate change, is proceeding more slowly than many would like. The usual argument against rapid deployment of new technologies is the costs imposed on the economy, commonly interpreted in terms of upfront costs to be borne or involving large cash transfers to fund, for example, efforts to preserve rainforests. In this contribution I argue that such a perspective provides a continuing barrier to taking effective action, whereas a perspective based on creation and use of carbon credits provides a means of avoiding the shock of abrupt industrial change. Carbon credits granted for bona fide carbon load reductions could be created through private initiative, for example by merchant banks, to constitute a market that will complement regulatory-based initiatives such as national emissions trading systems. This is not a novel idea; indeed it is the way that capitalism has funded every major change, including the Industrial Revolution, through the creation of credit. The emergence of a global carbon credit economy is likely to precede a global regulatory system governing climate change and will doubtless help to stimulate the emergence of such a global system.

The shift to renewable energy options and low-carbon technologies, in response to the concerns over energy security and climate change, is proceeding more slowly than many would like. The usual argument against rapid deployment of new technologies is the costs imposed on the economy, commonly interpreted in terms of upfront costs to be borne or involving large cash transfers to fund, for example, efforts to preserve rainforests. In this contribution I argue that such a perspective provides a continuing barrier to taking effective action, whereas a perspective based on creation and use of carbon credits provides a means of avoiding the shock of abrupt industrial change. Carbon credits granted for bona fide carbon load reductions could be created through private initiative, for example by merchant banks, to constitute a market that will complement regulatory-based initiatives such as national emissions trading systems. This is not a novel idea; indeed it is the way that capitalism has funded every major change, including the Industrial Revolution, through the creation of credit. The emergence of a global carbon credit economy is likely to precede a global regulatory system governing climate change and will doubtless help to stimulate the emergence of such a global system.

Abstract Although Argentina came late to the biofuels revolution, a series of measures taken recently at federal and provincial government level have created new opportunities. New federal laws on biofuels promotion have sparked an investment boom. The main activity has been in the biodiesel sector—partly because diesel is the dominant fuel sector in Argentina, and partly because the country had already engineered a soy revolution over the past 15 years, becoming the world's largest exporter of soy oil and soy meal. Biodiesel allows this revolution to be extended—from soy as foodstuff to soy as fuelstock. The biodiesel revolution now underway promises to extend Argentina's latecomer advantages by combining greater scale and lower costs with introduced technical innovations such as genetically modified crops and no-till farming. In this way, Argentina can be seen to be demonstrating the superiority of biofuel production in countries of the South over the conditions obtaining in countries of the North—including superior resources availability, superior energetics and lower costs. Whereas Brazil has demonstrated its superiority in sugarcane-based ethanol, Argentina is about to demonstrate its superiority in soy-based biodiesel.

Abstract Although Argentina came late to the biofuels revolution, a series of measures taken recently at federal and provincial government level have created new opportunities. New federal laws on biofuels promotion have sparked an investment boom. The main activity has been in the biodiesel sector—partly because diesel is the dominant fuel sector in Argentina, and partly because the country had already engineered a soy revolution over the past 15 years, becoming the world's largest exporter of soy oil and soy meal. Biodiesel allows this revolution to be extended—from soy as foodstuff to soy as fuelstock. The biodiesel revolution now underway promises to extend Argentina's latecomer advantages by combining greater scale and lower costs with introduced technical innovations such as genetically modified crops and no-till farming. In this way, Argentina can be seen to be demonstrating the superiority of biofuel production in countries of the South over the conditions obtaining in countries of the North—including superior resources availability, superior energetics and lower costs. Whereas Brazil has demonstrated its superiority in sugarcane-based ethanol, Argentina is about to demonstrate its superiority in soy-based biodiesel.

AbstractWhile debate on biofuels and bioenergy generally has sparked controversy over claimed greenhouse gas emissions benefits available with a switch to biomass, these claims have generally not taken into account indirect land use changes. Carbon emissions from land that is newly planted with biocrops, after land use changes such as deforestation, are certainly real – but efforts to measure them have been presented subject to severe qualifi cations. No such qualifications accompanied the paper by Searchinger et al. published in Science in February 2008, where the claim was made that a spike of ethanol consumption in the USA up to the year 2016 would divert corn grown in the USA and lead to new plantings of grain crops around the world to make up the shortfall, resulting in land use changes covering 10.8 million hectares and leading to the release of 3.8 billion tons of greenhouse gas emissions in terms of CO2 equivalent. These emissions, the paper argued, would more than offset any savings in emissions by growing biofuels in the first place; in fact they would create a ‘carbon debt’ that would take 160 years to repay. Such criticism would be devastating, if it were valid. The aim of this perspective is to probe the assumptions and models used in the Searchinger et al. paper, to evaluate their validity and plausibility, and contrast them with other approaches taken or available to be taken. It is argued that indirect land use change effects are too diffuse and subject to too many arbitrary assumptions to be useful for rule‐making, and that the use of direct and controllable measures, such as building statements of origin of biofuels into the contracts that regulate the sale of such commodities, would secure better results. © 2009 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

AbstractWhile debate on biofuels and bioenergy generally has sparked controversy over claimed greenhouse gas emissions benefits available with a switch to biomass, these claims have generally not taken into account indirect land use changes. Carbon emissions from land that is newly planted with biocrops, after land use changes such as deforestation, are certainly real – but efforts to measure them have been presented subject to severe qualifi cations. No such qualifications accompanied the paper by Searchinger et al. published in Science in February 2008, where the claim was made that a spike of ethanol consumption in the USA up to the year 2016 would divert corn grown in the USA and lead to new plantings of grain crops around the world to make up the shortfall, resulting in land use changes covering 10.8 million hectares and leading to the release of 3.8 billion tons of greenhouse gas emissions in terms of CO2 equivalent. These emissions, the paper argued, would more than offset any savings in emissions by growing biofuels in the first place; in fact they would create a ‘carbon debt’ that would take 160 years to repay. Such criticism would be devastating, if it were valid. The aim of this perspective is to probe the assumptions and models used in the Searchinger et al. paper, to evaluate their validity and plausibility, and contrast them with other approaches taken or available to be taken. It is argued that indirect land use change effects are too diffuse and subject to too many arbitrary assumptions to be useful for rule‐making, and that the use of direct and controllable measures, such as building statements of origin of biofuels into the contracts that regulate the sale of such commodities, would secure better results. © 2009 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Current Kyoto-based approaches to reducing the earth's greenhouse gas problem involve looking for ways to reduce emissions. But these are palliative at best, and at worst will allow the problem to get out of hand. It is only through sequestration of atmospheric carbon that the problem can be solved. Carbon-negative biofuels represent the first potentially huge assault on the problem, in ways that are already technically feasible and practicable. The key to carbon negativity is to see it not as technically determined but as an issue of strategic choice, whereby farmers and fuel producers can decide how much carbon to return to the soil. Biochar amendment to the soil not only sequesters carbon but also enhances the fertility and vitality of the soil. The time is approaching when biofuels will be carbon negative by definition, and, as such, they will sweep away existing debates over their contribution to the solution of global warming.