• Energy Research

Abstract Households may imperfectly implement energy saving measures. This study identifies two factors resulting in imperfect use of energy-saving technology by households. Households often continue to use old technologies alongside new ones, and the energy-saving technologies have shorter actual lifetimes than their designed lifetimes. These two factors are considered when computing marginal energy conservation cost and marginal CO2 abatement cost using data collected from a survey of rural households in three provinces in China. The results show that there are cost reduction for most space heating technologies, and their marginal abatement cost under full implementation ranges from −60 to 15 USD/t-CO2, while the marginal abatement cost of cooking technologies ranges from 12 to 85 USD/t-CO2. The marginal abatement costs of the majority of technologies increased after accounting for the two implementation factors. The marginal abatement cost in the imperfect implementation scenario is higher, with a range of −1 to 15 USD/t-CO2 for space heating, and 18 to 165 USD/t-CO2 for cooking. Assuming implementation factors are constant until 2035, annually achievable CO2 abatement by 2035 is estimated to be 57, 11, and 10 Mt-CO2/y in Hebei, Guizhou, and Guangxi Provinces.

Abstract As a major GHG emissions source with large growth potential, the passenger transport sector plays a crucial role in deep decarbonization in China. Large disparities among provinces in private vehicle ownership, sufficiency of public transport infrastructure, affordability of clean fuel vehicles, etc. highlight the importance of regionally tailored mitigation strategies to fully exploit carbon reduction potentials. We classify 31 provinces in mainland China into three regional clusters based on their passenger transport development level, then establish a provincial level bottom-up model to project energy demand and CO2 emissions of China’s passenger transport sector by 2050. Mitigation effects of improving vehicle energy efficiency, shifting to alternative clean fuels, and promoting public transport are compared, and regionally tailored policy priorities are then proposed. The results show that CO2 emissions of China's passenger transport sector will peak around 2045 at 647 MtCO2 and slightly declined to 642 MtCO2 in 2050 in the Current Policies Scenario. If fully implemented, regionally tailor mitigation strategies that maximize techno-economic carbon reduction potentials could cut CO2 emissions substantially to net-zero in 2050. Mitigation effects of different policy options vary among time periods and regions. Improving vehicle fuel efficiency contributes the most in carbon mitigation over short time scales especially in less developed provinces, where private vehicle ownerships are projected to increase rapidly. Well-established transport infrastructure and an optimally designed public transport system could play a larger role in wealthier provinces.

Abstract In order to peak emissions before 2030, achieve the goal of 2 °C temperature rise and protect people’s health, China’s power sector urgently needs to increase its share of clean energy. However, high generation costs and an inadequate grid transmission capacity still impedes clean generation technology development. It is still unclear which conditions would enable the large penetration of clean generation technologies in China’s power sector. Thus, this study develops a quantitative calculation method to find the most effective regional subsidy and interregional transmission capacity levels, so that the penetration barriers can be overcome and clean energy resources in China can be fully used. The simulation results indicate that the most effective subsidy for each clean generation technology differs from region to region. Using solar power as an example, the most effective subsidy in the north, northeast and northwest regions is 0.4 RMB/kW h and in the south region it is 0.7 RMB/kW h. If these subsidies are implemented, the share of solar power in the Chinese power sector can reach 24.7% by 2050. Additionally, the results also indicate that the most effective interregional transmission capacity in 2050 is about 13 times of the current transmission capacity plan. Under the most effective regional subsidies and interregional transmission capacity, the share of clean energy generation in the Chinese power sector can reach 59.6%.

China, with its growing population and economic development, faces increasing risks to health from climate change, but also opportunities to address these risks and protect health for generations to come. Without a timely and adequate response, climate change will impact lives and livelihoods at an accelerated rate. In 2020, the Lancet Countdown Regional Centre in Asia, led by Tsinghua University, built on the work of the global Lancet Countdown and began its assessment of the health profile of climate change in China with the aim of triggering rapid and health-responsive actions.This 2021 report is the first annual update, presenting 25 indicators within five domains: climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerability; adaptation, planning, and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. The report represents the contributions of 88 experts from 25 leading institutions in, and outside of, China. From 2020 to 2021, five new indicators have been added and methods have been improved for many indicators. Where possible, the indicator results are presented at national and provincial levels to facilitate local understanding and policy making. In a year marked by COVID-19, this report also endeavours to reflect on China's pathway for a green recovery, ensuring it aligns with the carbon neutrality goal, for the health of the current and future generations.

Abstract This study contributes to the existing literature on economic impacts assessment of China's Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) by 2030. A dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of China that incorporates the technological details of the electricity sector is used in this study. Two main policy choices, including the renewable quota and the carbon market, are modeled to distinguish different pathways to INDC targets. Results show several important findings. First, the total economic cost required to achieve China's INDC targets ranges from 0.11% to 0.43% of GDP by 2030. Second, energy sectors such as the coal mining and electric power sectors are the most affected by China's INDC in terms of both sectoral production and price. This study further indicates that the implementation of a national carbon market is efficient in reducing the compliance costs of INDC targets, while the deployment of renewable power helps to create employment opportunities and reduce permit prices in the carbon market. In addition, the results of a cost-benefit analysis suggest that the hidden health benefits of China's INDC can offset approximately 42.1–162.3% of the compliance costs, even based on the most conservative estimates.

This article argues that human health has become a key consideration in recent global reports on climate change and biodiversity produced by various international organisations; however, greater attention must be given to the unequal health impacts of climate change and biodiversity loss around the world and the different health adaptation measures that are urgently required.

Abstract Biofuel plays an important role in the transition to low-carbon energy systems. However, the large-scale expansion of biofuels may cause drastic land use change (LUC) due to feedstock cultivation and further result in other sustainability impacts (e.g., food supply), which are the key concerns for policy makers when designing bioenergy policies. However, biophysical models omit the indirect LUC from interactions of economic agents, whereas economic models lack the depiction of heterogeneous land use types. Thus, through either technique, it has formidable challenges to simulate land conversions among alternative uses driven by socioeconomic activities, especially policy mandates. To bridge the gap between these models by simultaneously considering land heterogeneity and market mechanisms and to gain better insights into specific national/regional cases to supplement previous global biofuel and LUC analyses, in this study, we develop a national computable general equilibrium (CGE) model augmented with an explicit land allocation module and design a scenario approach to simulate different patterns of land use management. Food grains and dedicated energy crops are considered feedstock sources and marginal land is incorporated as a potential land supply. Using this model, the case study of China quantifies the direct and indirect LUC driven by the bioethanol (one of the main biofuels) expansion of the new nationwide E10 mandate (gasoline containing 10% ethanol) in 2020, as well as the further impacts on food security. The results show that a slight land reallocation occurs with decreases in the land supply for rice (−0.016%), other non-feedstock grains and crops, as well as forest and grassland (−0.023%). The land competition among existing croplands would be intense in the non-deforestation scenario. If marginal land is reclaimed for feedstock cultivation, the cropland competition could be softened. The results of sensitivity analysis indicate that the total LUC scale would be 4.0–5.9% with no corn stockpile serving as feedstock. Additionally, the bioethanol expansion would trigger higher food prices (around +0.1%). To alleviate the negative impacts on land resources and food security, planting energy crops on marginal land could increase non-grain feedstocks by 10% and save 0.217% of croplands; therefore, it may be one of the promising pathways for sustainable biofuel development in China. This study can lay a common foundation for further integrated impact assessments of biofuel expansion.

Abstract We conduct a multi-model comparison of a carbon tax policy in China to examine how different models simulate the impacts in both near-term 2020, medium-term 2030, and distant future 2050. Though Top-down computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have been applied frequently on climate or other environmental/energy policies to assess emission reduction, energy use and economy-wide general equilibrium outcomes in China, the results often vary greatly across models, making it challenging to derive policies. We compare 8 China CGE models with different characteristics to examine how they estimate the effects of a plausible range of carbon tax scenarios – low, medium and high carbon taxes.. To make them comparable we impose the same population growth, the same GDP growth path and world energy price shocks. We find that the 2030 NDC target for China are easily met in all models, but the 2060 carbon neutrality goal cannot be achieved even with our highest carbon tax rates. Through this carbon tax comparison, we find all 8 CGE models differ substantially in terms of impacts on the macroeconomy, aggregate prices, energy use and carbon reductions, as well as industry level output and price effects. We discuss the reasons for the divergent simulation results including differences in model structure, substitution parameters, baseline renewable penetration and methods of revenue recycling.