• Energy Research

AbstractMilk and beef production cause 9% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Previous life cycle assessment (LCA) studies have shown that dairy intensification reduces the carbon footprint of milk by increasing animal productivity and feed conversion efficiency. None of these studies simultaneously evaluated indirect GHG effects incurred via teleconnections with expansion of feed crop production and replacement suckler‐beef production. We applied consequential LCA to incorporate these effects into GHG mitigation calculations for intensification scenarios among grazing‐based dairy farms in an industrialized country (UK), in which milk production shifts from average to intensive farm typologies, involving higher milk yields per cow and more maize and concentrate feed in cattle diets. Attributional LCA indicated a reduction of up to 0.10 kg CO2e kg−1 milk following intensification, reflecting improved feed conversion efficiency. However, consequential LCA indicated that land use change associated with increased demand for maize and concentrate feed, plus additional suckler‐beef production to replace reduced dairy‐beef output, significantly increased GHG emissions following intensification. International displacement of replacement suckler‐beef production to the “global beef frontier” in Brazil resulted in small GHG savings for the UK GHG inventory, but contributed to a net increase in international GHG emissions equivalent to 0.63 kg CO2e kg−1 milk. Use of spared dairy grassland for intensive beef production can lead to net GHG mitigation by replacing extensive beef production, enabling afforestation on larger areas of lower quality grassland, or by avoiding expansion of international (Brazilian) beef production. We recommend that LCA boundaries are expanded when evaluating livestock intensification pathways, to avoid potentially misleading conclusions being drawn from “snapshot” carbon footprints. We conclude that dairy intensification in industrialized countries can lead to significant international carbon leakage, and only achieves GHG mitigation when spared dairy grassland is used to intensify beef production, freeing up larger areas for afforestation.

La production animale est une source essentielle de revenus et d'émissions de gaz à effet de serre (GES) agricoles en Colombie, au Brésil, en Argentine, au Costa Rica, en Uruguay, au Mexique et au Pérou. Plusieurs options de gestion et technologiques, avec un potentiel d'atténuation du méthane entérique, ont été évaluées et leur mise à l'échelle devrait contribuer à la réalisation des objectifs de réduction des émissions de GES. Pourtant, l'adoption généralisée d'options d'atténuation prometteuses reste limitée, ce qui soulève des questions quant à savoir si les objectifs de réduction des émissions envisagés sont réalisables. À l'aide de données générées localement, nous explorons les potentiels d'atténuation des technologies et des pratiques de gestion actuellement proposées pour atténuer les émissions de méthane entérique, pour les systèmes de production bovine dans les pays d'Amérique latine les plus émetteurs. Nous discutons ensuite des obstacles à l'adoption d'innovations qui réduisent considérablement les émissions de méthane entérique d'origine bovine et des changements majeurs dans les politiques et les pratiques qui sont nécessaires pour relever les ambitions nationales dans les pays à forte émission. En utilisant la science la plus récente et la pensée actuelle, nous fournissons notre point de vue sur une approche inclusive et ré-imaginons comment les secteurs universitaire, de la recherche, des affaires et des politiques publiques peuvent soutenir et encourager les changements nécessaires pour élever le niveau d'ambition et atteindre les objectifs de développement durable en envisageant des actions allant de la ferme à l'échelle nationale. La producción ganadera es una fuente fundamental de ingresos y emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero (GEI) agrícolas en Colombia, Brasil, Argentina, Costa Rica, Uruguay, México y Perú. Se han evaluado varias opciones de gestión y tecnológicas, con potencial de mitigación de metano entérico, y se prevé que su escalado contribuya al logro de los objetivos de reducción de emisiones de GEI. Sin embargo, la adopción generalizada de opciones de mitigación prometedoras sigue siendo limitada, lo que plantea dudas sobre si los objetivos de reducción de emisiones previstos son alcanzables. Utilizando datos generados localmente, exploramos los potenciales de mitigación de las tecnologías y prácticas de manejo actualmente propuestas para mitigar las emisiones de metano entérico, para los sistemas de producción ganadera en los países de mayor emisión de América Latina. Luego discutimos las barreras para adoptar innovaciones que reduzcan significativamente las emisiones de metano entérico en el ganado y los cambios importantes en las políticas y prácticas que se necesitan para aumentar las ambiciones nacionales en los países con altas emisiones. Utilizando la ciencia más reciente y el pensamiento actual, brindamos nuestra perspectiva sobre un enfoque inclusivo y reimaginamos cómo los sectores académico, de investigación, empresarial y de políticas públicas pueden apoyar e incentivar los cambios necesarios para elevar el nivel de ambición y alcanzar los objetivos de desarrollo sostenible considerando acciones desde la granja hasta la escala nacional. Livestock production is a pivotal source of income and agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, Costa Rica, Uruguay, Mexico and Peru. Several management and technological options, with enteric methane mitigation potential, have been evaluated and their scaling is anticipated to contribute towards achieving GHG emission reduction targets. Yet, widespread adoption of promising mitigation options remains limited, raising questions as to whether envisaged emission reduction targets are achievable. Using locally generated data, we explore the mitigation potentials of technologies and management practices currently proposed to mitigate enteric methane emissions, for cattle production systems in the higher emitting countries of Latin America. We then discuss barriers for adopting innovations that significantly reduce cattle-based enteric methane emissions and the major shifts in policy and practice that are needed to raise national ambitions in the high emitting countries. Using the latest science and current thinking, we provide our perspective on an inclusive approach and re-imagine how the academic, research, business and public policy sectors can support and incentivize the changes needed to raise the level of ambition and achieve sustainable development goals considering actions all the way from the farm to the national scale. الإنتاج الحيواني هو مصدر محوري للدخل وانبعاثات غازات الدفيئة الزراعية في كولومبيا والبرازيل والأرجنتين وكوستاريكا وأوروغواي والمكسيك وبيرو. تم تقييم العديد من خيارات الإدارة والخيارات التكنولوجية، مع إمكانية تخفيف الميثان المعوي، ومن المتوقع أن يساهم قياسها في تحقيق أهداف خفض انبعاثات غازات الدفيئة. ومع ذلك، لا يزال الاعتماد الواسع النطاق لخيارات التخفيف الواعدة محدودًا، مما يثير تساؤلات حول ما إذا كانت أهداف خفض الانبعاثات المتوخاة قابلة للتحقيق. باستخدام البيانات التي تم إنشاؤها محليًا، نستكشف إمكانات التخفيف من التقنيات وممارسات الإدارة المقترحة حاليًا للتخفيف من انبعاثات الميثان المعوية، لأنظمة إنتاج الماشية في البلدان ذات الانبعاثات الأعلى في أمريكا اللاتينية. ثم نناقش العوائق التي تحول دون اعتماد الابتكارات التي تقلل بشكل كبير من انبعاثات الميثان المعوي القائم على الماشية والتحولات الرئيسية في السياسات والممارسات اللازمة لرفع الطموحات الوطنية في البلدان ذات الانبعاثات العالية. باستخدام أحدث العلوم والتفكير الحالي، نقدم وجهة نظرنا حول نهج شامل ونعيد تصور كيف يمكن للقطاعات الأكاديمية والبحثية وقطاع الأعمال والسياسة العامة دعم وتحفيز التغييرات اللازمة لرفع مستوى الطموح وتحقيق أهداف التنمية المستدامة مع الأخذ في الاعتبار الإجراءات على طول الطريق من المزرعة إلى النطاق الوطني.

Dairy farming is one the most important sectors of United Kingdom (UK) agriculture. It faces major challenges due to climate change, which will have direct impacts on dairy cows as a result of heat stress. In the absence of adaptations, this could potentially lead to considerable milk loss. Using an 11-member climate projection ensemble, as well as an ensemble of 18 milk loss estimation methods, temporal changes in milk production of UK dairy cows were estimated for the 21st century at a 25 km resolution in a spatially-explicit way. While increases in UK temperatures are projected to lead to relatively low average annual milk losses, even for southern UK regions (<180 kg/cow), the 'hottest' 25×25 km grid cell in the hottest year in the 2090s, showed an annual milk loss exceeding 1300 kg/cow. This figure represents approximately 17% of the potential milk production of today's average cow. Despite the potential considerable inter-annual variability of annual milk loss, as well as the large differences between the climate projections, the variety of calculation methods is likely to introduce even greater uncertainty into milk loss estimations. To address this issue, a novel, more biologically-appropriate mechanism of estimating milk loss is proposed that provides more realistic future projections. We conclude that South West England is the region most vulnerable to climate change economically, because it is characterised by a high dairy herd density and therefore potentially high heat stress-related milk loss. In the absence of mitigation measures, estimated heat stress-related annual income loss for this region by the end of this century may reach £13.4M in average years and £33.8M in extreme years.