• Energy Research

AbstractClimate change is expected to modify ecological responses in the ocean, with the potential for important effects on the ecosystem services provided to humankind. Here we address the question of how rapidly multiple drivers of marine ecosystem change develop in the future ocean. By analysing an ensemble of models we find that, within the next 15 years, the climate change-driven trends in multiple ecosystem drivers emerge from the background of natural variability in 55% of the ocean and propagate rapidly to encompass 86% of the ocean by 2050 under a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario. However, we also demonstrate that the exposure of marine ecosystems to climate change-induced stress can be drastically reduced via climate mitigation measures; with mitigation, the proportion of ocean susceptible to multiple drivers within the next 15 years is reduced to 34%. Mitigation slows the pace at which multiple drivers emerge, allowing an additional 20 years for adaptation in marine ecological and socio-economic systems alike.

AbstractAs part of the second phase of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes project (RECCAP2), we present an assessment of the carbon cycle of the Atlantic Ocean, including the Mediterranean Sea, between 1985 and 2018 using global ocean biogeochemical models (GOBMs) and estimates based on surface ocean carbon dioxide (CO2) partial pressure (pCO2 products) and ocean interior dissolved inorganic carbon observations. Estimates of the basin‐wide long‐term mean net annual CO2 uptake based on GOBMs and pCO2 products are in reasonable agreement (−0.47 ± 0.15 PgC yr−1 and −0.36 ± 0.06 PgC yr−1, respectively), with the higher uptake in the GOBM‐based estimates likely being a consequence of a deficit in the representation of natural outgassing of land derived carbon. In the GOBMs, the CO2 uptake increases with time at rates close to what one would expect from the atmospheric CO2 increase, but pCO2 products estimate a rate twice as fast. The largest disagreement in the CO2 flux between GOBMs and pCO2 products is found north of 50°N, coinciding with the largest disagreement in the seasonal cycle and interannual variability. The mean accumulation rate of anthropogenic CO2 (Cant) over 1994–2007 in the Atlantic Ocean is 0.52 ± 0.11 PgC yr−1 according to the GOBMs, 28% ± 20% lower than that derived from observations. Around 70% of this Cant is taken up from the atmosphere, while the remainder is imported from the Southern Ocean through lateral transport.

Project: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets - These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions and serves as resource for authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated on a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. Summary: These data include the subset used by IPCC AR6 WGI authors of the datasets originally published in ESGF for 'CMIP6.ScenarioMIP.NCC.NorESM2-MM.ssp370' with the full Data Reference Syntax following the template 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The NorESM2-MM (medium atmosphere-medium ocean resolution, GHG concentration driven) climate model, released in 2017, includes the following components: aerosol: OsloAero, atmos: CAM-OSLO (1 degree resolution; 288 x 192; 32 levels; top level 3 mb), atmosChem: OsloChemSimp, land: CLM, landIce: CISM, ocean: MICOM (1 degree resolution; 360 x 384; 70 levels; top grid cell minimum 0-2.5 m [native model uses hybrid density and generic upper-layer coordinate interpolated to z-level for contributed data]), ocnBgchem: HAMOCC, seaIce: CICE. The model was run by the NorESM Climate modeling Consortium consisting of CICERO (Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo 0349), MET-Norway (Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo 0313), NERSC (Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen 5006), NILU (Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Kjeller 2027), UiB (University of Bergen, Bergen 5007), UiO (University of Oslo, Oslo 0313) and UNI (Uni Research, Bergen 5008), Norway. Mailing address: NCC, c/o MET-Norway, Henrik Mohns plass 1, Oslo 0313, Norway (NCC) in native nominal resolutions: aerosol: 100 km, atmos: 100 km, atmosChem: 100 km, land: 100 km, landIce: 100 km, ocean: 100 km, ocnBgchem: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km.

Project: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets - These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions and serves as resource for authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated on a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. Summary: These data include the subset used by IPCC AR6 WGI authors of the datasets originally published in ESGF for 'CMIP6.C4MIP.NCC.NorESM2-LM' with the full Data Reference Syntax following the template 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The NorESM2-LM (low atmosphere-medium ocean resolution, GHG concentration driven) climate model, released in 2017, includes the following components: aerosol: OsloAero, atmos: CAM-OSLO (2 degree resolution; 144 x 96; 32 levels; top level 3 mb), atmosChem: OsloChemSimp, land: CLM, landIce: CISM, ocean: MICOM (1 degree resolution; 360 x 384; 70 levels; top grid cell minimum 0-2.5 m [native model uses hybrid density and generic upper-layer coordinate interpolated to z-level for contributed data]), ocnBgchem: HAMOCC, seaIce: CICE. The model was run by the NorESM Climate modeling Consortium consisting of CICERO (Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo 0349), MET-Norway (Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo 0313), NERSC (Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen 5006), NILU (Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Kjeller 2027), UiB (University of Bergen, Bergen 5007), UiO (University of Oslo, Oslo 0313) and UNI (Uni Research, Bergen 5008), Norway. Mailing address: NCC, c/o MET-Norway, Henrik Mohns plass 1, Oslo 0313, Norway (NCC) in native nominal resolutions: aerosol: 250 km, atmos: 250 km, atmosChem: 250 km, land: 250 km, landIce: 250 km, ocean: 100 km, ocnBgchem: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km.

Project: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets - These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions and serves as resource for authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated on a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. Summary: These data include the subset used by IPCC AR6 WGI authors of the datasets originally published in ESGF for 'CMIP6.CMIP.NCC.NorCPM1' with the full Data Reference Syntax following the template 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The Norwegian Climate Prediction Model version 1 climate model, released in 2019, includes the following components: aerosol: OsloAero4.1 (same grid as atmos), atmos: CAM-OSLO4.1 (2 degree resolution; 144 x 96 longitude/latitude; 26 levels; top level ~2 hPa), atmosChem: OsloChemSimp4.1 (same grid as atmos), land: CLM4 (same grid as atmos), ocean: MICOM1.1 (1 degree resolution; 320 x 384 longitude/latitude; 53 levels; top grid cell 0-2.5 m [native model uses hybrid density and generic upper-layer coordinate interpolated to z-level for contributed data]), ocnBgchem: HAMOCC5.1 (same grid as ocean), seaIce: CICE4 (same grid as ocean). The model was run by the NorESM Climate modeling Consortium consisting of CICERO (Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo 0349), MET-Norway (Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo 0313), NERSC (Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen 5006), NILU (Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Kjeller 2027), UiB (University of Bergen, Bergen 5007), UiO (University of Oslo, Oslo 0313) and UNI (Uni Research, Bergen 5008), Norway. Mailing address: NCC, c/o MET-Norway, Henrik Mohns plass 1, Oslo 0313, Norway (NCC) in native nominal resolutions: aerosol: 250 km, atmos: 250 km, atmosChem: 250 km, land: 250 km, ocean: 100 km, ocnBgchem: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km.

Project: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets - These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions and serves as resource for authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated on a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. Summary: These data include the subset used by IPCC AR6 WGI authors of the datasets originally published in ESGF for 'CMIP6.AerChemMIP.NCC.NorESM2-LM' with the full Data Reference Syntax following the template 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The NorESM2-LM (low atmosphere-medium ocean resolution, GHG concentration driven) climate model, released in 2017, includes the following components: aerosol: OsloAero, atmos: CAM-OSLO (2 degree resolution; 144 x 96; 32 levels; top level 3 mb), atmosChem: OsloChemSimp, land: CLM, landIce: CISM, ocean: MICOM (1 degree resolution; 360 x 384; 70 levels; top grid cell minimum 0-2.5 m [native model uses hybrid density and generic upper-layer coordinate interpolated to z-level for contributed data]), ocnBgchem: HAMOCC, seaIce: CICE. The model was run by the NorESM Climate modeling Consortium consisting of CICERO (Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo 0349), MET-Norway (Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo 0313), NERSC (Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen 5006), NILU (Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Kjeller 2027), UiB (University of Bergen, Bergen 5007), UiO (University of Oslo, Oslo 0313) and UNI (Uni Research, Bergen 5008), Norway. Mailing address: NCC, c/o MET-Norway, Henrik Mohns plass 1, Oslo 0313, Norway (NCC) in native nominal resolutions: aerosol: 250 km, atmos: 250 km, atmosChem: 250 km, land: 250 km, landIce: 250 km, ocean: 100 km, ocnBgchem: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km.

Project: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets - These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions and serves as resource for authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated on a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. Summary: These data include the subset used by IPCC AR6 WGI authors of the datasets originally published in ESGF for 'CMIP6.ScenarioMIP.NCC.NorESM2-LM.ssp126' with the full Data Reference Syntax following the template 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The NorESM2-LM (low atmosphere-medium ocean resolution, GHG concentration driven) climate model, released in 2017, includes the following components: aerosol: OsloAero, atmos: CAM-OSLO (2 degree resolution; 144 x 96; 32 levels; top level 3 mb), atmosChem: OsloChemSimp, land: CLM, landIce: CISM, ocean: MICOM (1 degree resolution; 360 x 384; 70 levels; top grid cell minimum 0-2.5 m [native model uses hybrid density and generic upper-layer coordinate interpolated to z-level for contributed data]), ocnBgchem: HAMOCC, seaIce: CICE. The model was run by the NorESM Climate modeling Consortium consisting of CICERO (Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo 0349), MET-Norway (Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo 0313), NERSC (Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen 5006), NILU (Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Kjeller 2027), UiB (University of Bergen, Bergen 5007), UiO (University of Oslo, Oslo 0313) and UNI (Uni Research, Bergen 5008), Norway. Mailing address: NCC, c/o MET-Norway, Henrik Mohns plass 1, Oslo 0313, Norway (NCC) in native nominal resolutions: aerosol: 250 km, atmos: 250 km, atmosChem: 250 km, land: 250 km, landIce: 250 km, ocean: 100 km, ocnBgchem: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km.