• Energy Research

A health-friendly, climate resilient, and carbon-neutral pathway would deliver major benefits to people's health and wellbeing in China, especially for older populations, while simultaneously promoting high-quality development in the long run. This report is the third China Lancet Countdown report, led by the Lancet Countdown Regional Centre based in Tsinghua University. With the contributions of 73 experts from 23 leading institutions, both within China and globally, this report tracks progress through 27 indicators in the following five domains: (1) climate change impacts, exposure, and vulnerability; (2) adaptation, planning, and resilience for health; (3) mitigation actions and health co-benefits; (4) economics and finance; and (5) public and political engagement. From 2021 to 2022, two new indicators have been added, and methods have been improved for many indicators. Specifically, one of the new indicators measures how heat affects the hours that are safe for outdoor exercise, an indicator of particular relevance given the boom in national sports triggered by the summer and winter Olympics. Findings in this report, which coincide with the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change 27th Conference of the Parties (COP27) hosted in Egypt (where much attention is being focused on adaptation for clinically vulnerable populations), expose the urgency for accelerated adaptation and mitigation efforts to minimise the health impacts of the increasing climate change hazards in China.

AbstractFrequent heatwaves under global warming can increase the risk of preterm birth (PTB), which in turn will affect physical health and human potential over the life course. However, what remains unknown is the extent to which anthropogenic climate change has contributed to such burdens. We combine health impact and economic assessment methods to comprehensively evaluate the entire heatwave-related PTB burden in dimensions of health, human capital and economic costs. Here, we show that during 2010-2020, an average of 13,262 (95%CI 6,962-18,802) PTBs occurred annually due to heatwave exposure in China. In simulated scenarios, 25.8% (95%CI 17.1%-34.5%) of heatwave-related PTBs per year on average can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, which further result in substantial human capital losses, estimated at over $1 billion costs. Our findings will provide additional impetus for introducing more stringent climate mitigation policies and also call for more sufficient adaptations to reduce heatwave detriments to newborn.

With growing health risks from climate change and a trend of increasing carbon emissions from coal, it is time for China to take action. The rising frequency and severity of extreme weather events in China, such as record-high temperatures, low rainfall, severe droughts, and floods in many regions (along with the compound and ripple effects of these events on human health) have underlined the urgent need for health-centred climate action. The rebound in the country's coal consumption observed in 2022 reflected the great challenge faced by China in terms of its coal phase-down, over-riding the country's gains in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Timely and adequate responses will not only reduce or avoid the impacts of climate-related health hazards but can also protect essential infrastructures from disruptions caused by extreme weather. Health and climate change are inextricably linked, necessitating a high prioritisation of health in adaptation and mitigation efforts. The 2023 China report of the Lancet Countdown continues to track progress on health and climate change in China, while now also attributing the health risks of climate change to human activities and providing examples of feasible and effective climate solutions. This fourth iteration of the China report was spearheaded by the Lancet Countdown regional centre in Asia, based at Tsinghua University in Beijing, China. Progress is monitored across 28 indicators in five domains: from climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerability (section 1); to the different elements of action, including adaption (section 2) and mitigation, and their health implications (section 3); to economics and finance (section 4); and public and political engagement (section 5). This report was compiled with the contribution of 76 experts from 26 institutions both within and outside of China. The impending global stocktake at the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28), the UN initiative on early warning systems (which ...

In China, most previous projections of heat-related mortality have been based on modeling studies using global climate models (GCMs), which can help to elucidate the risks of extreme heat events in a changing climate. However, spatiotemporal changes in the health effects of climate change considering specific regional characteristics remain poorly understood. We aimed to use credible climate and population projections to estimate future heatwave-attributable deaths under different emission scenarios and to explore the drivers underlying these patterns of changes.We derived climate data from a regional climate model driven by three CMIP5 GCM models and calculated future heatwaves in China under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. The future gridded population data were based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2 assumption with different fertility rates. By applying climate zone-specific exposure-response functions to mortality during heatwave events, we projected the scale of heatwave-attributable deaths under each RCP scenario. We further analyzed the factors driving changes in heatwave-related deaths and main sources of uncertainty using a decomposition method. We compared differences in death burden under the 1.5°C target, which is closely related to achieving carbon neutrality by mid-century.The number of heatwave-related deaths will increase continuously to the mid-century even under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and will continue increasing throughout the century under RCP8.5. There will be 20,303 deaths caused by heatwaves in 2090 under RCP2.6, 35,025 under RCP4.5, and 72,260 under RCP8.5, with half of all heatwave-related deaths in any scenario concentrated in east and central China. Climate effects are the main driver for the increase in attributable deaths in the near future till 2060, explaining 78% of the total change. Subsequent population decline cannot offset the losses caused by higher incidence of heatwaves and an aging population under RCP8.5. Although health loss under the 1.5°C warming scenario is 1.6-fold higher than the baseline period 1986-2005, limiting the temperature rise to 1.5°C can reduce the annual mortality burden in China by 3,534 deaths in 2090 compared with RCP2.6 scenarios.With accelerating climate change and population aging, the effects of future heatwaves on human health in China are likely to increase continuously even under a low emission scenario. Significant health benefits are expected if the optimistic 1.5°C goal is achieved, suggesting that carbon neutrality by mid-century is a critical target for China's sustainable development. Policymakers need to tighten climate mitigation policies tailored to local conditions while enhancing climate resilience technically and infrastructurally, especially for vulnerable elderly people.National Key R&D Program of China (2018YFA0606200), Wellcome Trust (209734/Z/17/Z), Natural Science Foundation of China (41790471), and Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research (2020B0301030004).

China, with its growing population and economic development, faces increasing risks to health from climate change, but also opportunities to address these risks and protect health for generations to come. Without a timely and adequate response, climate change will impact lives and livelihoods at an accelerated rate. In 2020, the Lancet Countdown Regional Centre in Asia, led by Tsinghua University, built on the work of the global Lancet Countdown and began its assessment of the health profile of climate change in China with the aim of triggering rapid and health-responsive actions.This 2021 report is the first annual update, presenting 25 indicators within five domains: climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerability; adaptation, planning, and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. The report represents the contributions of 88 experts from 25 leading institutions in, and outside of, China. From 2020 to 2021, five new indicators have been added and methods have been improved for many indicators. Where possible, the indicator results are presented at national and provincial levels to facilitate local understanding and policy making. In a year marked by COVID-19, this report also endeavours to reflect on China's pathway for a green recovery, ensuring it aligns with the carbon neutrality goal, for the health of the current and future generations.

As China’s population ages rapidly, the health risks associated with a changing climate are becoming more threatening. The 2022 China report of the Lancet Countdown, led by Tsinghua University with the contributions of 73 experts from 23 leading global institutions, tracks progress in climate change and health in China through 27 indicators across five domains: (1) Climate change impacts, exposure, and vulnerability; (2) adaptation, planning, and resilience for health; (3) mitigation actions and health co-benefits; (4) economics and finance; and (5) public and political engagement. This report is the third China Lancet Countdown report, paying particular attention to the impacts on the elderly and highlighting the urgency of taking action. We selected the most urgent and relevant indicators to complete a policy brief that provides a better understanding of recent progress on climate change and health in China. We found heat-related health impacts increased from 2020 to 2021, increasing heat-related mortality, reducing labour capacity, and undermining the capacity to partake in physical activity due to rising temperature. In addition, exposure to wildfire, extreme drought, and extreme rainfall also increased in different regions across China. In 2021, compared with the 1986–2005 average, people in China had an average of 7.85 more heatwave days (which led to an extra 13185 heatwave-related deaths), and a loss of 0.67 more hours of safe outdoor physical exercise per day. The rising temperature also caused the annual average exposure to wildfire to increase by 60.0% between 2017–2021 compared with the 2001–2005 average. Meanwhile, the engagement on health and climate issues from individuals, scholars, and public sectors continues to grow rapidly. From 2020 to 2021, the number of climate-related articles and documents on the official websites of four Chinese Government departments grew by 1.83 times, and the number of climate-and-health-related articles and documents grew by 3.7 times. However, older populations received marginal attention on this issue in media coverage, although they are more vulnerable to the health threats of climate change than younger populations. In most provinces, people aged 65 years and older are facing higher health risks of climate change than the general population. In addition, we found that the inputs and attention to adaptation are still insufficient compared with the increasing health risks posed by climate change. Based on the findings, the following recommendations are made to protect climate change-related health risks: (1) Increasing adaptation across governmental departments and accelerating investment in climate resilience. Adaptation across governmental departments and investment in climate resilience must be substantially increased to protect the health of Chinese populations. (2) Developing a stand-alone Health National Climate Adaptation Plan. Leaders must strengthen the response of local efforts to national plans, for example, by establishing a nationwide heat and cold and health early warning system with regional characteristics. (3) Prioritise climate change in health policies, with a focus on the wellbeing of vulnerable populations. Leaders should include climate change health impact prevention and treatment as one of the key responsibilities of the new National Bureau of Disease Control and Prevention. (4) Accelerating coal reduction and integrating health considerations into China’s pathway to carbon neutrality. Leaders must strictly control the capacity of coal-fired power generation and accelerate the pace of coal reduction (especially in the household sector). (5) Promoting renewable energy generation and consumption by redirecting fossil fuel subsidies to China’s low-carbon economy. Leaders should keep encouraging renewable energy generation and consumption.