• Energy Research

Abstract. Climate change contributes to the increased frequency and intensity of wildfires globally, with significant impacts on society and the environment. However, our understanding of the global distribution of extreme fires remains skewed, primarily influenced by media coverage and regionalised research efforts. This inaugural State of Wildfires report systematically analyses fire activity worldwide, identifying extreme events from the March 2023–February 2024 fire season. We assess the causes, predictability, and attribution of these events to climate change and land use and forecast future risks under different climate scenarios. During the 2023–2024 fire season, 3.9×106 km2 burned globally, slightly below the average of previous seasons, but fire carbon (C) emissions were 16 % above average, totalling 2.4 Pg C. Global fire C emissions were increased by record emissions in Canadian boreal forests (over 9 times the average) and reduced by low emissions from African savannahs. Notable events included record-breaking fire extent and emissions in Canada, the largest recorded wildfire in the European Union (Greece), drought-driven fires in western Amazonia and northern parts of South America, and deadly fires in Hawaii (100 deaths) and Chile (131 deaths). Over 232 000 people were evacuated in Canada alone, highlighting the severity of human impact. Our analyses revealed that multiple drivers were needed to cause areas of extreme fire activity. In Canada and Greece, a combination of high fire weather and an abundance of dry fuels increased the probability of fires, whereas burned area anomalies were weaker in regions with lower fuel loads and higher direct suppression, particularly in Canada. Fire weather prediction in Canada showed a mild anomalous signal 1 to 2 months in advance, whereas events in Greece and Amazonia had shorter predictability horizons. Attribution analyses indicated that modelled anomalies in burned area were up to 40 %, 18 %, and 50 % higher due to climate change in Canada, Greece, and western Amazonia during the 2023–2024 fire season, respectively. Meanwhile, the probability of extreme fire seasons of these magnitudes has increased significantly due to anthropogenic climate change, with a 2.9–3.6-fold increase in likelihood of high fire weather in Canada and a 20.0–28.5-fold increase in Amazonia. By the end of the century, events of similar magnitude to 2023 in Canada are projected to occur 6.3–10.8 times more frequently under a medium–high emission scenario (SSP370). This report represents our first annual effort to catalogue extreme wildfire events, explain their occurrence, and predict future risks. By consolidating state-of-the-art wildfire science and delivering key insights relevant to policymakers, disaster management services, firefighting agencies, and land managers, we aim to enhance society's resilience to wildfires and promote advances in preparedness, mitigation, and adaptation. New datasets presented in this work are available from https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11400539 (Jones et al., 2024) and https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11420742 (Kelley et al., 2024a).

As queimadas atingem grandes áreas, constituindo-se como um agente modelador dos ecossistemas e contribuem para o acúmulo de gases e aerossóis na atmosfera. Atualmente, o sensoriamento remoto é a principal fonte de dados para estudar as queimadas devido à aquisição de dados globais com uma periodicidade constante. No entanto, são necessárias mais informações sobre as queimadas além da sua localização espacial, dentre elas a biomassa queimada. O método mais utilizado para isso atualmente é derivado da Potência Radiativa do Fogo (FRP), já que a energia emitida como radiação eletromagnética durante a combustão pode ser diretamente relacionada com a biomassa queimada. Contudo, alguns fatores introduzem erros nas estimativas de FRP, como o ângulo de visada. Assim, para avaliar a influência dessa variável na FRP foi realizado um experimento de combustão em pequena escala utilizando como biomassa a palha da cana-de-açúcar. Ainda, foi determinado o coeficiente de biomassa queimada para a cana-de-açúcar. As estimativas obtidas permitiram concluir que a FRP diminui com o aumento do ângulo de visada, e, sendo assim, o ângulo de visada foi considerado no coeficiente de biomassa queimada. Pretende-se futuramente empregar os resultados encontrados para estimar a biomassa queimada e suas emissões provenientes da queimada pré-colheita da cana-de-açúcar.

In this study we assessed METRIC (Mapping Evapotranspiration at high Resolution with Internalized Calibration) model performance to estimate energy balance fluxes and evapotranspiration (ET) in two heterogeneous landscapes in the Brazilian Cerrado, including fluxes and ET in both agricultural and natural vegetation. The estimates were evaluated by comparing them to flux tower data collected over sugarcane (USR site), woody savanna (PDG site) and stricto-sensu savanna (RECOR site) areas. The selection of the study years (2005–2007 for USR/PDG sites and 2011–2015 for RECOR site) was based on the availability of meteorological data (to be used as inputs in METRIC) and of flux tower data for energy balance fluxes and ET comparisons. The broadband albedo submodel was adjusted in order to improve Net Radiation estimates. For this adjustment, we applied at-surface solar radiation simulations obtained from the SMARTS2 model under different conditions of land elevation, precipitable water content and solar angles. We also tested the equivalence between the measured crop coefficient (Kc_ec) and the reference evapotranspiration fraction (ETrF or F), seeking to extrapolate from instantaneous to daily values of actual evapotranspiration (ETa). Surface albedo was underestimated by 10% at the USR site (showing a better performance for full crop coverage), by 15% at the PDG site (following the woody savanna dynamics pattern through dry and wet seasons) and was overestimated by 21% at the RECOR site. METRIC was effective in simulating the spatial and temporal variability of energy balance fluxes and ET over agricultural and natural vegetation in the Brazilian Cerrado, with errors within those reported in the literature. Net radiation (Rn) presented consistent results (coefficient of determination (R2) > 0.94) but it was overestimated by 8% and 9% in sugarcane and woody savanna, respectively. METRIC-derived ET estimates showed an agreement with ground data at USR and PDG sites (R2 > 0.88, root mean square error (RMSE) up to 0.87 mm day−1), but at the RECOR site, ET was overestimated by 14% (R2 = 0.96, mean absolute error (MAE) = 0.62 mm.day−1 and RMSE = 0.75 mm day−1). Surface energy balance fluxes and ET were marked by seasonality, with direct dependence on available energy, rainfall distribution, soil moisture and other parameters like albedo and NDVI.

Abstract. Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of wildfires globally, with significant impacts on society and the environment. However, our understanding of the global distribution of extreme fires remains skewed, primarily influenced by media coverage and regional research concentration. This inaugural State of Wildfires report systematically analyses fire activity worldwide, identifying extreme events from the March 2023–February 2024 fire season. We assess the causes, predictability, and attribution of these events to climate change and land use, and forecast future risks under different climate scenarios. During the 2023–24 fire season, 3.9 million km2 burned globally, slightly below the average of previous seasons, but fire carbon (C) emissions were 16 % above average, totaling 2.4 Pg C. This was driven by record emissions in Canadian boreal forests (over 9 times the average) and dampened by reduced activity in African savannahs. Notable events included record-breaking wildfire extent and emissions in Canada, the largest recorded wildfire in the European Union (Greece), drought-driven fires in western Amazonia and northern parts of South America, and deadly fires in Hawai’i (100 deaths) and Chile (131 deaths). Over 232,000 people were evacuated in Canada alone, highlighting the severity of human impact. Our analyses revealed that multiple drivers were needed to cause areas of extreme fire activity. In Canada and Greece a combination of high fire weather and an abundance of dry fuels increased the probability of fires by 4.5-fold and 1.9–4.1-fold, respectively, whereas fuel load and direct human suppression often modulated areas with anomalous burned area. The fire season in Canada was predictable three months in advance based on the fire weather index, whereas events in Greece and Amazonia had shorter predictability horizons. Formal attribution analyses indicated that the probability of extreme events has increased significantly due to anthropogenic climate change, with a 2.9–3.6-fold increase in likelihood of high fire weather in Canada and a 20.0–28.5-fold increase in Amazonia. By the end of the century, events of similar magnitude are projected to occur 2.22–9.58 times more frequently in Canada under high emission scenarios. Without mitigation, regions like Western Amazonia could see up to a 2.9-fold increase in extreme fire events. For the 2024–25 fire season, seasonal forecasts highlight moderate positive anomalies in fire weather for parts of western Canada and South America, but no clear signal for extreme anomalies is present in the forecast. This report represents our first annual effort to catalogue extreme wildfire events, explain their occurrence, and predict future risks. By consolidating state-of-the-art wildfire science and delivering key insights relevant to policymakers, disaster management services, firefighting agencies, and land managers, we aim to enhance society’s resilience to wildfires and promote advances in preparedness, mitigation, and adaptation.