• Energy Research

Understanding the fluctuations in monthly and annual cattle prices plays a key role in supporting the sustainability of New Mexico’s (NM’s), United States (US), beef cattle industry under variable environmental conditions. The goal of this study was to provide an improved understanding of NM’s beef cattle production systems in terms of prices and production patterns and related drought impacts. The main objectives were to evaluate monthly and annual prices patterns for heifers and steers (cattle) and calves, the relationships between annual cattle prices and inventory and drought, and the effects of drought on ranch net return. Drought events were assessed using the Self-Calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (SC-PDSI). The generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models and their exponential version were used to investigate the effects of drought and cattle supply on cattle prices, and the effects of drought on ranch net return. Spectral analysis and timeseries decomposition were used to identify the cycles of the annual price and numbers of cattle and calf. Coherence analysis was used to examine the relationships between inventory of cattle classes and drought. The results indicated that prices of cattle and calf usually drop in October through January and peak in April. The inventory of replacement heifers and steers were negatively related to cattle prices, while the inventory of calves was positively related to calf prices. Cattle and calf prices showed negative linear relationships with droughts. Annual cattle and calf prices showed 6- and 10-year cycles, while their inventory showed 6- and 8- year cycles, respectively. Our finding suggested that a rancher can still earn some net return when drought falls within the “Abnormally Dry” category of the US Drought Monitor. However, a rancher with a large herd or ranch size can endure drought more than a rancher with a medium herd or ranch size and reach the breakeven point. Specifically, the net return ($/head) is expected to increase (or decrease) by $62.29, $60.51, and $64.07 per head if the SC-PDSI increase (or decrease) by one unit in all large and medium ranch sizes, respectively. The effects of drought on ranch net return that we identified need further improvements using additional data. Due to NM’s location and the diversity of its rangeland, understanding the response of cattle prices to drought and beef cattle supply based on these findings can be used to help NM’s ranchers and those in other similar regions make informed ranch management decisions. These findings can also support the development of improved understanding of beef cattle production systems regionally.

Water scarcity, land use conversion and cultural and ecosystem changes threaten the way of life for traditional irrigation communities of the semi-arid southwestern United States. Traditions are strong, yet potential upheaval is great in these communities that rely on acequia irrigation systems. Acequias are ancient ditch systems brought from the Iberian Peninsula to the New World over 400 years ago; they are simultaneously gravity flow water delivery systems and shared water governance institutions. Acequias have survived periods of drought and external shocks from changing economics, demographics, and resource uses. Now, climate change and urbanization threaten water availability, ecosystem functions, and the acequia communities themselves. Do past adaptive practices hold the key to future sustainability, or are new strategies required? To explore this issue we translated disciplinary understanding into a uniform format of causal loop diagrams to conceptualize the subsystems of the entire acequia-based human-natural system. Four subsystems are identified in this study: hydrology, ecosystem, land use/economics, and sociocultural. Important linkages between subsystems were revealed as well as variables indicating community cohesion (e.g., total irrigated land, intensity of upland grazing, mutualism). Ongoing work will test the conceptualizations with field data and modeling exercises to capture tipping points for non-sustainability and thresholds for sustainable water use and community longevity.

This study was conducted within the context of providing an improved understanding of New Mexico’s food, energy, water systems (FEWS) and their behavior under variable climate and socioeconomic conditions. The goal of this paper was to characterize the relationships between production and prices of some forage crops (hay, grain sorghum, and corn) that can be used as feed supplements for beef cattle production and the potential impacts from a changing climate (precipitation, temperature) and energy inputs (crude oil production and prices). The analysis was based on 60 years of data (1958–2017) using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models. Hay production showed a declining trend since 2000 and in 2017, it dropped by ~33% compared to that of 2000. Crude oil production (R2 = 0.83) and beef cattle population (R2 = 0.85) were negatively correlated with hay production. A moderate declining trend in mean annual hay prices was also observed. Mean annual range conditions (R2 = 0.60) was negatively correlated with mean annual hay prices, whereas mean annual crude oil prices (R2 = 0.48) showed a positive relationship. Grain sorghum production showed a consistent declining trend since 1971 and in 2017, it dropped by ~91% compared to that of 1971. Mean annual temperature (R2 = 0.58) was negatively correlated with grain sorghum production, while beef cattle population (R2 = 0.61) and range conditions (R2 = 0.51) showed positive linear relationships. Mean annual grain sorghum prices decreased since the peak of 1974 and in 2017, they dropped by ~77% compared to those of 1974. Crude oil prices (R2 = 0.72) and beef cattle population (R2 = 0.73) were positively correlated with mean annual grain sorghum prices. Corn production in 2017 dropped by ~61% compared to the peak that occurred in 1999. Crude oil production (R2 = 0.85) and beef cattle population (R2 = 0.86) were negatively correlated with corn production. Mean annual corn prices showed a declining trend since 1974 and in 2017, they dropped by ~75% compared to those of 1974. Mean annual corn prices were positively correlated with mean annual precipitation (R2 = 0.83) and negatively correlated with crude oil production (R2 = 0.84). These finding can particularly help in developing a more holistic model that integrates FEWS components to explain their response to internal (i.e., management practices) and external (i.e., environmental) stressors. Such holistic modeling can further inform the development and adoption of more sustainable production and resource use practices.

New Mexico (NM) has been identified as the state in the US that will be most adversely impacted by climate change and associated water stress. Roughly 92% of NM is rangeland, most of which is grazed by beef cattle. We calculated the blue (surface and ground) and green (precipitation) water footprints (WF) of NM beef cattle industry (cow-calf, backgrounding, and feedlot). This analysis indicated that the weighted average WF of NM beef cattle was 28,203 L/kgmeat. The majority of the WF was accounted for green water (82%; 23,063 L/kgmeat) used by rangeland forages. Blue water accounted for only 18% (5140 L/kgmeat) of the total beef WF estimate. The relative contribution of green vs. blue water varied significantly among the different phases of beef production. In cow-calf, green water accounted for 99.5% of the WF whereas blue water, accounted for 100% of beef WF during backgrounding and feedlot. Based on our estimate, NM cow-calf operations is about a third or a quarter of the blue water (m3/year) used to produce corn or wheat, and only 5% or less of the water used to produce cotton or hay. In NM, irrigation accounts for about 84% of freshwater use followed by public/domestic use of 10%. Mining, thermo-electric, livestock production, aquaculture, and industrial uses collectively account for the other 6%.

Agriculture-based irrigation communities of northern New Mexico have survived for centuries despite the arid environment in which they reside. These irrigation communities are threatened by regional population growth, urbanization, a changing demographic profile, economic development, climate change, and other factors. Within this context, we investigated the extent to which community resource management practices centering on shared resources (e.g., water for agricultural in the floodplains and grazing resources in the uplands) and mutualism (i.e., shared responsibility of local residents to maintaining traditional irrigation policies and upholding cultural and spiritual observances) embedded within the community structure influence acequia function. We used a system dynamics modeling approach as an interdisciplinary platform to integrate these systems, specifically the relationship between community structure and resource management. In this paper we describe the background and context of acequia communities in northern New Mexico and the challenges they face. We formulate a Dynamic Hypothesis capturing the endogenous feedbacks driving acequia community vitality. Development of the model centered on major stock-and-flow components, including linkages for hydrology, ecology, community, and economics. Calibration metrics were used for model evaluation, including statistical correlation of observed and predicted values and Theil inequality statistics. Results indicated that the model reproduced trends exhibited by the observed system. Sensitivity analyses of socio-cultural processes identified absentee decisions, cumulative income effect on time in agriculture, and land use preference due to time allocation, community demographic effect, effect of employment on participation, and farm size effect as key determinants of system behavior and response. Sensitivity analyses of biophysical parameters revealed that several key parameters (e.g., acres per animal unit or percentage of normal acequia ditch seepage) which created less variable system responses but which utilized similar pathways to that of the socio-cultural processes (e.g., socio-cultural or physical parameter change → agricultural profit → time in spent in agriculture → effect on socio-cultural or physical processes). These processes also linked through acequia mutualism to create the greatest variability in system outputs compared to the remainder of tests. Results also point to the important role of community mutualism in sustaining linkages between natural and human systems that increase resilience to stressors. Future work will explore scenario development and testing, integration with upland and downstream models, and comparative analyses between acequia communities with distinct social and landscape characteristics.

Accelerated climate change is a global challenge that is increasingly putting pressure on the sustainability of livestock production systems that heavily depend on rangeland ecosystems. Rangeland management practices have low potential to sequester greenhouse gases. However, mismanagement of rangelands and their conversion into ex-urban, urban, and industrial landscapes can significantly exacerbate the climate change process. Under conditions of more droughts, heat waves, and other extreme weather events, management of risks (climate, biological, financial, political) will probably be more important to the sustainability of ranching than capability to expand output of livestock products in response to rising demand due to population growth. Replacing traditional domestic livestock with a combination of highly adapted livestock and game animals valued for both hunting and meat may be the best strategy on many arid rangelands. Eventually, traditional ranching could become financially unsound across large areas if climate change is not adequately addressed. Rangeland policy, management, and research will need to be heavily focused on the climate change problem.

Interconnected food, energy, and water (FEW) nexus systems face many challenges to support human well-being (HWB) and maintain resilience, especially in arid and semiarid regions like New Mexico (NM), United States (US). Insufficient FEW resources, unstable economic growth due to fluctuations in prices of crude oil and natural gas, inequitable education and employment, and climate change are some of these challenges. Enhancing the resilience of such coupled socio-environmental systems depends on the efficient use of resources, improved understanding of the interlinkages across FEW system components, and adopting adaptable alternative management strategies. The goal of this study was to develop a framework that can be used to enhance the resilience of these systems. An integrated food, energy, water, well-being, and resilience (FEW-WISE) framework was developed and introduced in this study. This framework consists mainly of five steps to qualitatively and quantitatively assess FEW system relationships, identify important external drivers, integrate FEW systems using system dynamics models, develop FEW and HWB performance indices, and develop a resilience monitoring criterion using a threshold-based approach that integrates these indices. The FEW-WISE framework can be used to evaluate and predict the dynamic behavior of FEW systems in response to environmental and socioeconomic changes using resilience indicators. In conclusion, the derived resilience index can be used to inform the decision-making processes to guide the development of alternative scenario-based management strategies to enhance the resilience of ecological and socioeconomic well-being of vulnerable regions like NM.