• Energy Research

AbstractThe Magellanic sub‐Antarctic Forest is home to the world's southernmost avian community and is the only Southern Hemisphere analogue to Northern Hemisphere temperate forests at this latitude. This region is considered among the few remaining pristine areas of the world, and shifts in environmental conditions are predominantly driven by climate variability. Thus, understanding climate‐driven demographic processes is critical for addressing conservation issues in this system under future climate change scenarios. Here, we describe annual survival patterns and their association with climate variables using a 20‐year mark–recapture data set of five forest bird species in the Cape Horn Biosphere Reserve. We develop a multispecies hierarchical survival model to jointly explore age‐dependent survival probabilities at the community and species levels in a group of five forest passerines. At the community level, we assess the association of migratory behavior and body size with survival, and at the species level, we investigate the influence of local and regional climatic variables on temporal variations of survival. We found a positive effect of precipitation and a negative effect of El Niño Southern Oscillation on juvenile survival in the white‐crested Elaenia and a consistent but uncertain negative effect of temperature on survival in juveniles and 80% of adults. We found only a weak association of climate variables with survival across species in the community and no temporal trends in survival for any of the species in either age class, highlighting apparent stability in these high austral latitude forests. Finally, our findings provide an important resource of survival probabilities, a necessary input for assessing potential impacts of global climate change in this unique region of the world.

AbstractA natural laboratory is a place supporting the conditions for hypothesis testing under non-anthropogenic settings. Located at the southern end of the Magellanic sub-Antarctic ecoregion in southwestern South America, the Cape Horn Biosphere Reserve (CHBR) has one of the most extreme rainfall gradients in the world. Subject to oceanic climate conditions, it is also characterized by moderate thermal fluctuations throughout the year. This makes it a unique natural laboratory for studying the effects of extreme rainfall variations on forest bird communities. Here, we monitor the bird species richness in the different forest types present in the CHBR. We found that species richness decreased with increasing precipitation, in which an increase of 100 mm in average annual precipitation showed about 1% decrease in species richness. Similar patterns were found among different forest types within the CHBR. These results provide a baseline to investigate the interactions between physical and biotic factors in a subpolar region that climatically contrasts with boreal forests, which is subject to continental climatic conditions. This research highlights the importance of ecological and ornithological long-term studies in the CHBR, which can contribute both to a higher resolution of the heterogeneity of climate changes in different regions of the world, and to orient conservation policies in the Magellanic sub-Antarctic ecoregion in the face of growing development pressures.

Climate change potentially has important effects on distribution, abundance, transmission and virulence of parasites in wild populations of animals.Here we analyzed paired information on 89 parasite populations for 24 species of bird hosts some years ago and again in 2010 with an average interval of 10 years. The parasite taxa included protozoa, feather parasites, diptera, ticks, mites and fleas. We investigated whether change in abundance and prevalence of parasites was related to change in body condition, reproduction and population size of hosts. We conducted analyses based on the entire dataset, but also on a restricted dataset with intervals between study years being 5-15 years. Parasite abundance increased over time when restricting the analyses to datasets with an interval of 5-15 years, with no significant effect of changes in temperature at the time of breeding among study sites. Changes in host body condition and clutch size were related to change in temperature between first and second study year. In addition, changes in clutch size, brood size and body condition of hosts were correlated with change in abundance of parasites. Finally, changes in population size of hosts were not significantly related to changes in abundance of parasites or their prevalence.Climate change is associated with a general increase in parasite abundance. Variation in laying date depended on locality and was associated with latitude while body condition of hosts was associated with a change in temperature. Because clutch size, brood size and body condition were associated with change in parasitism, these results suggest that parasites, perhaps mediated through the indirect effects of temperature, may affect fecundity and condition of their hosts. The conclusions were particularly in accordance with predictions when the restricted dataset with intervals of 5-15 years was used, suggesting that short intervals may bias findings.