• Energy Research

Repository reproducing plots and processing used in Nicholls et al 2022 (under review). For questions and comments, please contact Zebedee Nicholls (zebedee.nicholls@climate-energy-college.org). For full details, please see https://gitlab.com/magicc/nicholls-et-al-2022-emulator-changes. {"references": ["Nicholls et al. (under review)"]}

{"references": ["Arias PA, Bellouin N, Coppola E, Jones RG, Krinner G, Marotzke J, et al. Technical Summary. In: Masson-Delmotte V, Zhai P, Pirani A, Connors SL, P\u00e9an C, Berger S, et al., editors. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press; 2021.", "Chen D, Rojas M, Samset BH, Cobb K, Diongue Niang A, Edwards P, et al. Framing, Context, and Methods. In: Masson-Delmotte V, Zhai P, Pirani A, Connors SL, P\u00e9an C, Berger S, et al., editors. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press; 2021.", "Lee JY, Marotzke J, Bala G, Cao L, Corti S, Dunne JP, et al. Future Global Climate: Scenario-Based Projections and Near-Term Information. In: Masson-Delmotte V, Zhai P, Pirani A, Connors SL, P\u00e9an C, Berger S, et al., editors. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Cambridge University Press; 2021.", "Naik V, Szopa S, Adhikary B, Artaxo P, Berntsen T, Collins WD, et al. Short-Lived Climate Forcers. In: Masson-Delmotte V, Zhai P, Pirani A, Connors SL, P\u00e9an C, Berger S, et al., editors. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press; 2021.", "Forster P, Storelvmo T, Armour K, Collins W, Dufresne JL, Frame D, et al. The Earth's Energy Budget, Climate Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity. In: Masson-Delmotte V, Zhai P, Pirani A, Connors SL, P\u00e9an C, Berger S, et al., editors. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Cambridge University Press; 2021.", "Smith C, Nicholls ZRJ, Armour K, Collins W, Forster P, Meinshausen M, et al. The Earth's Energy Budget, Climate Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity Supplementary Material. In: Masson-Delmotte V, Zhai P, Pirani A, Connors SL, P\u00e9an C, Berger S, et al., editors. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Cambridge University Press; 2021."]} Repository reproducing plots and processing used in AR6 WG1 made by Zebedee Nicholls, Malte Meinshausen and Jared Lewis. For questions and comments, please contact Zebedee Nicholls (zebedee.nicholls@climate-energy-college.org), Jared Lewis (jared.lewis@climate-resource.com) and Malte Meinshausen (malte.meinshausen@unimelb.edu.au). For full details, please see https://gitlab.com/magicc/ar6-wg1-plots-and-processing.

The data is available for download at the AR6 Scenario Explorer hosted by IIASA. As part of the IPCC's 6th Assessment Report (AR6), authors from Working Group III on Mitigation of Climate Change undertook a comprehensive exercise to collect and assess quantitative, model-based scenarios related to the mitigation of climate change. Building on previous assessments, such as those undertaken for the 5th Assessment Report (AR5) and the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15), the calls for AR6 for scenarios have been expanded and includes economy-wide GHG emissions, energy, and sectoral scenarios from global to national scales, thus more broadly supporting the assessment across multiple chapters (see Annex III, Part 2 of the WGIII report for more details). The compilation and assessment of the scenario ensemble was conducted by authors of the IPCC AR6 report, and the resource is hosted by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) as part of a cooperation agreement with Working Group III of the IPCC. The scenario ensemble contains 3,131 quantitative scenarios with data on socio-economic development, greenhouse gas emissions, and sectoral transformations across energy, land use, transportation, buildings and industry. These scenarios derive from 191 unique modelling frameworks, 95+ model families that are either globally comprehensive, national, multi-regional or sectoral. The criteria for submission included that the scenario is presented in a peer-reviewed journal accepted for publication no later than October 11th, 2021, or published in a report determined by the IPCC WG III Bureau to be eligible grey literature by the same date. The AR6 scenario database is documented in Annex III.2 of the Sixth Assessment Report of Working Group III. For the purpose of the assessment, scenarios have been grouped in various categories relating to, among other things, climate outcomes, overshoot, technology availability and policy assumptions. For ease of use, the dataset is split into multiple files: Scenarios data for the Global region Scenarios data for R5 regions Scenarios data for R6 regions Scenarios data for R10 regions Scenarios data for ISO-3 (country) regions Global metadata indicators file National metadata indicators file The data is available for download at the AR6 Scenario Explorer hosted by IIASA. The license permits use of the scenario ensemble for scientific research and science communication, but restricts redistribution of substantial parts of the data. Please refer to the FAQ and legal code for more information. In addition to the data you may find more relevant information and cite one of the relevant chapters of the WG III report. If working with global or regional (R6, R10) data: Keywan Riahi, Roberto Schaeffer, et al. Mitigation Pathways Compatible with Long-Term Goals, in "Mitigation of Climate Change". Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, 2022. url: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3/ If working with national data (ISO region data): Franck Lecocq, Harald Winkler, et al. Mitigation and development pathways in the near- to mid-term, in "Mitigation of Climate Change". Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, 2022. url: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3/ If you find the metadata files particularly useful: Celine Guivarch, Elmar Kriegler, Joana Portugal Pereira, et al. Annex III: Scenarios and Modelling Methods, in "Mitigation of Climate Change". Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, 2022. url: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3/ Scenarios data also supports analysis in Chapters 2, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 12 and 15

The data is available for download at the AR6 Scenario Explorer hosted by IIASA.<<< click here. As part of the IPCC's 6th Assessment Report (AR6), authors from Working Group III on Mitigation of Climate Change undertook a comprehensive exercise to collect and assess quantitative, model-based scenarios related to the mitigation of climate change. Building on previous assessments, such as those undertaken for the 5th Assessment Report (AR5) and the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15), the calls for AR6 for scenarios have been expanded and includes economy-wide GHG emissions, energy, and sectoral scenarios from global to national scales, thus more broadly supporting the assessment across multiple chapters (see Annex III, Part 2 of the WGIII report for more details). The compilation and assessment of the scenario ensemble was conducted by authors of the IPCC AR6 report, and the resource is hosted by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) as part of a cooperation agreement with Working Group III of the IPCC. The scenario ensemble contains 3,131 quantitative scenarios with data on socio-economic development, greenhouse gas emissions, and sectoral transformations across energy, land use, transportation, buildings and industry. These scenarios derive from 191 unique modelling frameworks, 95+ model families that are either globally comprehensive, national, multi-regional or sectoral. The criteria for submission included that the scenario is presented in a peer-reviewed journal accepted for publication no later than October 11th, 2021, or published in a report determined by the IPCC WG III Bureau to be eligible grey literature by the same date. The AR6 scenario database is documented in Annex III.2 of the Sixth Assessment Report of Working Group III. For the purpose of the assessment, scenarios have been grouped in various categories relating to, among other things, climate outcomes, overshoot, technology availability and policy assumptions. The AR6 Scenarios Database is jointly published by the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium & International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. The data is available for download at the AR6 Scenario Explorer hosted by IIASA.<<< click here. For ease of use, the database is provided as multiple files: Filename Description Region coverage Uncompressed Size (MB) Standard files for assessment AR6_Scenarios_Database_World_v1.1.csv All data reported for the World region, primarily from integrated assessment models (IAMs), as well as variables from the climate assessment World only 353 AR6_Scenarios_Database_R5_regions_v1.1.csv All data reported and aggregated to R5 regions, primarily from IAMs. 5 global regions 847 AR6_Scenarios_Database_R6_regions_v1.1.csv All data reported and aggregated to R6 regions (as preferred by IPCC), primarily from IAMs. 6 global regions 408 AR6_Scenarios_Database_R10_regions_v1.1.csv All data reported and aggregated to R10 regions, primarily from IAMs. 10 global regions 1,266 AR6_Scenarios_Database_ISO3_v1.1.csv Ass data reported at the country level, primarily from national integrated assessment and energy systems models, but also IAMs for major countries. Country level 1,155 AR6_Scenarios_Database_metadata_indicators_v1.1.xlsx Wide range of categorical and numerical indicators calculated for each model-scenario. Primarily world data 3 Additional "climate assessment" files New in v1.1 AR6_Scenarios_Database_World_ALL_CLIMATE_v1.1.csv Same as World snapshot above, but with all the climate assessment data for MAGICC and FaIR models included World only 3,006 AR6_Climate_Diagnostics_CICERO-SCM_v1.1.csv Climate assessment data for the CICERO-SCM model World only 743 AR6_Climate_Diagnostics_metadata_indicators_v1.1.xlsx Full set of categorical and numerical indicators relating to the climate assessment, calculated for each model-scenario World only 2 AR6_historical_emissions.csv Historical CO2 and GHGs for world region used in climate assessment World only 0.01 The data is available for download at the AR6 Scenario Explorer hosted by IIASA. The license permits use of the scenario ensemble for scientific research and science communication, but restricts redistribution of substantial parts of the data. Please refer to the FAQ and legal code for more information. In addition to the data you may find more relevant information and cite one of the relevant chapters of the WG III report. If working with global or regional (R6, R10) data: Keywan Riahi, Roberto Schaeffer, et al. Mitigation Pathways Compatible with Long-Term Goals, in "Mitigation of Climate Change". Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, 2022. url: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3/ If working with national data (ISO region data): Franck Lecocq, Harald Winkler, et al. Mitigation and development pathways in the near- to mid-term, in "Mitigation of Climate Change". Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, 2022. url: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3/ If you find the metadata files particularly useful: Celine Guivarch, Elmar Kriegler, Joana Portugal Pereira, et al. Annex III: Scenarios and Modelling Methods, in "Mitigation of Climate Change". Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, 2022. url: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3/ Scenarios data also supports analysis in the Summary for Policy Makers, Technical Summary and Chapters 2, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 12 and 15. Climate assessment of global emissions pathways The climate assessment of the long-term global emissions scenarios was undertaken as part of the Chapter 3 assessment. The workflow is available at https://github.com/iiasa/climate-assessment and published in Kikstra et al. 2022. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures. Geoscientific Model Development https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-471. Scripts for this assessment are at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7304736 For these purposes, the full climate assessment data is provided, as documented in the table above. Release notes for v1.1 Following feedback and identification of some issues between the versions available to authors in preparation of the published report and the v1.0 public release, updates are made to v1.1.Changes made here are made with the intention of facilitating and improving the reproducibility of the IPCC report. There are no resulting corrections to the report and its findings, as these issues were identified by authors and manually addressed. Full list of release notes is published on the Downloads page https://data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/ar6/#/downloads The data is available for download at the AR6 Scenario Explorer hosted by IIASA.<<< click here.

Repository reproducing plots and processing used in Nicholls et al 2022 (under review).For questions and comments, please contact Zebedee Nicholls (zebedee.nicholls@climate-energy-college.org). For full details, please see https://gitlab.com/magicc/nicholls-et-al-2022-emulator-changes. {"references": ["Nicholls et al. (under review)"]}

Code and data to create our publication about remaining carbon budget assessment frameworks (https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab83af).

Data related to our publication about remaining carbon budget assessment frameworks.

Abstract. In every Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment cycle, a multitude of scenarios are assessed, with different scope and emphasis throughout the various Working Group reports and special reports, as well as their respective chapters. Within the reports, the ambition is to integrate knowledge on possible climate futures across the Working Groups and scientific research domains based on a small set of “framing pathways” such as the so-called representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report (AR5) and the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). This perspective, initiated by discussions at the IPCC Bangkok workshop in April 2023 on the “Use of Scenarios in AR6 and Subsequent Assessments”, is intended to serve as one of the community contributions to highlight the needs for the next generation of framing pathways that is being advanced under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) umbrella, which will influence or even predicate the IPCC AR7 consideration of framing pathways. Here we suggest several policy research objectives that such a set of framing pathways should ideally fulfil, including mitigation needs for meeting the Paris Agreement objectives, the risks associated with carbon removal strategies, the consequences of delay in enacting that mitigation, guidance for adaptation needs, loss and damage, and for achieving mitigation in the wider context of societal development goals. Based on this context, we suggest that the next generation of climate scenarios for Earth system models should evolve towards representative emission pathways (REPs) and suggest key categories for such pathways. These framing pathways should address the most critical mitigation policy and adaptation plans that need to be implemented over the next 10 years. In our view, the most important categories are those relevant in the context of the Paris Agreement long-term goal, specifically an immediate action (low overshoot) 1.5 °C pathway and a delayed action (high overshoot) 1.5 °C pathway. Two other key categories are a pathway category approximately in line with current (as expressed by 2023) near- and long-term policy objectives, as well as a higher-emission category that is approximately in line with “current policies” (as expressed by 2023). We also argue for the scientific and policy relevance in exploring two “worlds that could have been”. One of these categories has high-emission trajectories well above what is implied by current policies and the other has very-low-emission trajectories which assume that global mitigation action in line with limiting warming to 1.5 °C without overshoot had begun in 2015. Finally, we note that the timely provision of new scientific information on pathways is critical to inform the development and implementation of climate policy. Under the Paris Agreement, for the second global stocktake, which will occur in 2028, and to inform subsequent development of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) up to 2040, scientific inputs are required by 2027. These needs should be carefully considered in the development timeline of community modelling activities, including those under CMIP7.