• Energy Research

Humans have dramatic, diverse and far-reaching influences on the evolution of other organisms. Numerous examples of this human-induced contemporary evolution have been reported in a number of ‘contexts’, including hunting, harvesting, fishing, agriculture, medicine, climate change, pollution, eutrophication, urbanization, habitat fragmentation, biological invasions and emerging/disappearing diseases. Although numerous papers, journal special issues and books have addressed each of these contexts individually, the time has come to consider them together and thereby seek important similarities and differences. The goal of this special issue, and this introductory paper, is to promote and expand this nascent integration. We first develop predictions as to which human contexts might cause the strongest and most consistent directional selection, the greatest changes in evolutionary potential, the greatest genetic (as opposed to plastic) changes and the greatest effects on evolutionary diversification . We then develop predictions as to the contexts where human-induced evolutionary changes might have the strongest effects on the population dynamics of the focal evolving species, the structure of their communities, the functions of their ecosystems and the benefits and costs for human societies. These qualitative predictions are intended as a rallying point for broader and more detailed future discussions of how human influences shape evolution, and how that evolution then influences species traits, biodiversity, ecosystems and humans. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Human influences on evolution, and the ecological and societal consequences’.

AbstractAssortative mating is thought to play a key role in reproductive isolation. However, most experimental studies of assortative mating do not take place in multiple natural environments, and hence, they ignore its potential context dependence. We implemented an experiment in which two populations of brown trout (Salmo trutta) with different natural flow regimes were placed into semi‐natural stream channels under two different artificial flow regimes. Natural reproduction was allowed, and reproductive isolation was measured by means of parentage assignment to compare within‐population vs. between‐population male–female mating and relative offspring production. For both metrics, reproductive isolation was highly context dependent: no isolation was evident under one flow regime, but strong isolation was evident under the other flow regime. These patterns were fully driven by variance in the mating success of males from one of the two populations. Our results highlight how reproductive isolation through assortative mating can be strongly context dependent, which could have dramatic consequences for patterns of gene flow and speciation under environmental change.

AbstractEvolutionary principles are now routinely incorporated into medicine and agriculture. Examples include the design of treatments that slow the evolution of resistance by weeds, pests, and pathogens, and the design of breeding programs that maximize crop yield or quality. Evolutionary principles are also increasingly incorporated into conservation biology, natural resource management, and environmental science. Examples include the protection of small and isolated populations from inbreeding depression, the identification of key traits involved in adaptation to climate change, the design of harvesting regimes that minimize unwanted life‐history evolution, and the setting of conservation priorities based on populations, species, or communities that harbor the greatest evolutionary diversity and potential. The adoption of evolutionary principles has proceeded somewhat independently in these different fields, even though the underlying fundamental concepts are the same. We explore these fundamental concepts under four main themes: variation, selection, connectivity, and eco‐evolutionary dynamics. Within each theme, we present several key evolutionary principles and illustrate their use in addressing applied problems. We hope that the resulting primer of evolutionary concepts and their practical utility helps to advance a unified multidisciplinary field of applied evolutionary biology.

AbstractDeclines in animal body sizes are widely reported and likely impact ecological interactions and ecosystem services. For harvested species subject to multiple stressors, limited understanding of the causes and consequences of size declines impedes prediction, prevention, and mitigation. We highlight widespread declines in Pacific salmon size based on 60 years of measurements from 12.5 million fish across Alaska, the last largely pristine North American salmon-producing region. Declines in salmon size, primarily resulting from shifting age structure, are associated with climate and competition at sea. Compared to salmon maturing before 1990, the reduced size of adult salmon after 2010 has potentially resulted in substantial losses to ecosystems and people; for Chinook salmon we estimated average per-fish reductions in egg production (−16%), nutrient transport (−28%), fisheries value (−21%), and meals for rural people (−26%). Downsizing of organisms is a global concern, and current trends may pose substantial risks for nature and people.

Breeding location choice provides a mechanism by which individuals can directly influence their reproductive success. Location choice should therefore reflect individual condition, habitat features, and the intensity of competition; with these factors then influencing reproductive success. To test whether such patterns were detectable in the wild, we tagged 705 sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in a natural population, and monitored them from when they started breeding until they died. We evaluated the role of individual condition (size, secondary sexual traits, energy stores) in the acquisition of breeding locations that differed in the intensity of competition (female density, sex ratio) and habitat features (water depth, water velocity). We then evaluated the influence of breeding location on reproductive life span and energy stores. At a coarse level (20‐m stream sections), females consistently settled in certain locations, and these locations sustained high densities and held larger females. At a fine scale (0.5‐m breeding sites), (1) larger fish occupied deeper water (males, r2=0.072; females, r2=0.199), (2) higher levels of competition reduced reproductive life span for males (r2=0.139) but not females, and (3) fish with shorter reproductive life spans died with more energy remaining in their muscle tissue (males, r2=0.414; females, r2=0.440). These patterns were nested within a tendency for late breeding fish to have shorter reproductive life spans. Energy stores and secondary sexual traits did not influence breeding location choice, and larger fish did not acquire locations of higher intrinsic quality (i.e., those sections settled first and sustaining higher competition). Our study provides evidence that some aspects of individual condition influence breeding location choice, which then influences components of reproductive success.

Human activity is causing wild populations to experience rapid trait change and local extirpation. The resulting effects on intraspecific variation could have substantial consequences for ecological processes and ecosystem services. Although researchers have long acknowledged that variation among species influences the surrounding environment, only recently has evidence accumulated for the ecological importance of variation within species. We conducted a meta-analysis comparing the ecological effects of variation within a species (intraspecific effects) with the effects of replacement or removal of that species (species effects). We evaluated direct and indirect ecological responses, including changes in abundance (or biomass), rates of ecological processes and changes in community composition. Our results show that intraspecific effects are often comparable to, and sometimes stronger than, species effects. Species effects tend to be larger for direct ecological responses (for example, through consumption), whereas intraspecific effects and species effects tend to be similar for indirect responses (for example, through trophic cascades). Intraspecific effects are especially strong when indirect interactions alter community composition. Our results summarize data from the first generation of studies examining the relative ecological effects of intraspecific variation. Our conclusions can help inform the design of future experiments and the formulation of strategies to quantify and conserve biodiversity.

BACKGROUND As global climate change accelerates, one of the most urgent tasks for the coming decades is to develop accurate predictions about biological responses to guide the effective protection of biodiversity. Predictive models in biology provide a means for scientists to project changes to species and ecosystems in response to disturbances such as climate change. Most current predictive models, however, exclude important biological mechanisms such as demography, dispersal, evolution, and species interactions. These biological mechanisms have been shown to be important in mediating past and present responses to climate change. Thus, current modeling efforts do not provide sufficiently accurate predictions. Despite the many complexities involved, biologists are rapidly developing tools that include the key biological processes needed to improve predictive accuracy. The biggest obstacle to applying these more realistic models is that the data needed to inform them are almost always missing. We suggest ways to fill this growing gap between model sophistication and information to predict and prevent the most damaging aspects of climate change for life on Earth. ADVANCES On the basis of empirical and theoretical evidence, we identify six biological mechanisms that commonly shape responses to climate change yet are too often missing from current predictive models: physiology; demography, life history, and phenology; species interactions; evolutionary potential and population differentiation; dispersal, colonization, and range dynamics; and responses to environmental variation. We prioritize the types of information needed to inform each of these mechanisms and suggest proxies for data that are missing or difficult to collect. We show that even for well-studied species, we often lack critical information that would be necessary to apply more realistic, mechanistic models. Consequently, data limitations likely override the potential gains in accuracy of more realistic models. Given the enormous challenge of collecting this detailed information on millions of species around the world, we highlight practical methods that promote the greatest gains in predictive accuracy. Trait-based approaches leverage sparse data to make more general inferences about unstudied species. Targeting species with high climate sensitivity and disproportionate ecological impact can yield important insights about future ecosystem change. Adaptive modeling schemes provide a means to target the most important data while simultaneously improving predictive accuracy. OUTLOOK Strategic collections of essential biological information will allow us to build generalizable insights that inform our broader ability to anticipate species’ responses to climate change and other human-caused disturbances. By increasing accuracy and making uncertainties explicit, scientists can deliver improved projections for biodiversity under climate change together with characterizations of uncertainty to support more informed decisions by policymakers and land managers. Toward this end, a globally coordinated effort to fill data gaps in advance of the growing climate-fueled biodiversity crisis offers substantial advantages in efficiency, coverage, and accuracy. Biologists can take advantage of the lessons learned from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s development, coordination, and integration of climate change projections. Climate and weather projections were greatly improved by incorporating important mechanisms and testing predictions against global weather station data. Biology can do the same. We need to adopt this meteorological approach to predicting biological responses to climate change to enhance our ability to mitigate future changes to global biodiversity and the services it provides to humans. Emerging models are beginning to incorporate six key biological mechanisms that can improve predictions of biological responses to climate change. Models that include biological mechanisms have been used to project (clockwise from top) the evolution of disease-harboring mosquitoes, future environments and land use, physiological responses of invasive species such as cane toads, demographic responses of penguins to future climates, climate-dependent dispersal behavior in butterflies, and mismatched interactions between butterflies and their host plants. Despite these modeling advances, we seldom have the detailed data needed to build these models, necessitating new efforts to collect the relevant data to parameterize more biologically realistic predictive models.