• Energy Research

This paper assesses the macroeconomic impacts in terms of GDP, trade balance and employment of large-scale bioenergy production on surplus agricultural land. An input–output model is developed with which the direct, indirect and induced macroeconomic impacts of bioenergy production and agricultural intensification, which is needed to make agricultural land become available for bioenergy production, are assessed following a scenario approach. The methodology is applied to a case study of Argentina. The results of this study reveal that large-scale pellet production in 2015 would directly increase GDP by 4%, imports by 10% and employment by 6% over the reference situation in 2001. When accounting for indirect and induced impacts, GDP increases by 18%, imports by 20% and employment by 26% compared to 2001. Agricultural intensification reduces but does not negate these positive impacts of bioenergy production. Accounting for agricultural intensification, the increase in GDP as a result of bioenergy production on surplus agricultural land would amount to 16%, 20% in imports and 16% in employment compared to 2001.

AbstractAfforestation is considered a cost‐effective and readily available climate change mitigation option. In recent studies afforestation is presented as a major solution to limit climate change. However, estimates of afforestation potential vary widely. Moreover, the risks in global mitigation policy and the negative trade‐offs with food security are often not considered. Here we present a new approach to assess the economic potential of afforestation with the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model framework. In addition, we discuss the role of afforestation in mitigation pathways and the effects of afforestation on the food system under increasingly ambitious climate targets. We show that afforestation has a mitigation potential of 4.9 GtCO2/year at 200 US$/tCO2in 2050 leading to large‐scale application in an SSP2 scenario aiming for 2°C (410 GtCO2cumulative up to 2100). Afforestation reduces the overall costs of mitigation policy. However, it may lead to lower mitigation ambition and lock‐in situations in other sectors. Moreover, it bears risks to implementation and permanence as the negative emissions are increasingly located in regions with high investment risks and weak governance, for example in Sub‐Saharan Africa. Afforestation also requires large amounts of land (up to 1,100 Mha) leading to large reductions in agricultural land. The increased competition for land could lead to higher food prices and an increased population at risk of hunger. Our results confirm that afforestation has substantial potential for mitigation. At the same time, we highlight that major risks and trade‐offs are involved. Pathways aiming to limit climate change to 2°C or even 1.5°C need to minimize these risks and trade‐offs in order to achieve mitigation sustainably.

An important objective of the mandated blending of biofuel in conventional gasoline and diesel in the EU is reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. An important assumption thereby is that biofuels replace the production and consumption of oil. However, recent literature challenges this assumption, because an increased use of biofuels will lower oil prices and therefore result in increase crude oil consumption. This so-called rebound effect offsets the expected GHG emission saving effects of using biofuels. A review of eight studies, mainly on current and future US biofuel policies, provides insights in the current state of research into this topic, showing a wide range of values of the rebound effect of biofuel use, depending among others on the biofuel policy, the applied method and the model parameter assumptions. Generally, estimated rebound effects are negative in the country where biofuel use is being promoted (i.e. the use of 1 unit of biofuel reduces oil consumption by less than 1 unit; units on energy basis). The rebound effects in other countries are always positive (biofuel use reduces oil consumption by less than 1 unit so the total fuel consumption is increasing). The net global rebound effect is usually positive, which means that GHG emissions savings are not achieved as much as usually is assumed, or emissions may even increase. Own estimations with the global MAGNET computable general equilibrium model indicate a global rebound effect of the 10% biofuel blend mandate in the EU in the year 2020 of 22–30% (i.e. the use of 1 unit of biofuel reduces global oil consumption by 0.78–0.70 units). This means that GHG emissions will not be reduced as much as usually is assumed, or may even increase. These results show that rebound effects can significantly lower the effectiveness of biofuel policies in reducing GHG emissions.

It has proven extremely challenging for researchers to predict with confidence how human societies might develop in the future, yet managers and industries need to make projections in order to test adaptation and mitigation strategies designed to build resilience to long-term shocks. This paper introduces exploratory scenarios with a particular focus on European aquaculture and fisheries and describes how these scenarios were designed. Short-, medium- and long-term developments in socio-political drivers may be just as important in determining profits, revenues and prospects in the aquaculture and fisheries industries as physical drivers such as long-term climate change. Four socio-political-economic futures were developed, based partly on the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) framework and partly on the newer system of Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). ‘Off the shelf’ narrative material as well as quantitative outputs were ‘borrowed’ from earlier frameworks but supplemented with material generated through in-depth stakeholder workshops involving industry and policy makers. Workshop participants were tasked to outline how they thought their sector might look under the four future worlds and, in particular, to make use of the PESTEL conceptual framework (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal) as an aide memoire to help define the scope of each scenario. This work was carried out under the auspices of the EU Horizon 2020 project CERES (Climate change and European aquatic RESources), and for each ‘CERES scenario’ (World Markets, National Enterprise, Global Sustainability and Local Stewardship), additional quantitative outputs were generated, including projections of future fuel and fish prices, using the MAGNET (Modular Applied GeNeral Equilibrium Tool) modeling framework. In developing and applying the CERES scenarios, we have demonstrated that the basic architecture is sufficiently flexible to be used at a wide diversity of scales. We urge the climate science community to adopt a similar scenarios framework, based around SSPs, to facilitate global cross-comparison of fisheries and aquaculture model outputs more broadly and to harmonize communication regarding potential future bioeconomic impacts of climate change.

Dit rapport vormt de conclusie van een onderzoek dat is uitgevoerd om meer inzicht te krijgen in de bio-economie die zich aan het ontwikkelen is op de markten voor landbouwgrond. Het ging onder andere om inzicht in de ware omvang van de bio-economie, dat wil zeggen: het grote aanbod aan producten die gedeeltelijk uit biomassa bestaan of kunnen bestaan, en in dat verband de te verwachten ontwikkeling dat elementen die uit fossiele oliën zijn geproduceerd, worden vervangen. Dit onderzoek is bovendien een eerste stap om te bepalen of het resultaat van de ontwikkeling van een bio-economie over het geheel genomen positief, negatief of neutraal zal zijn voor de totale Nederlandse economie. This report is the conclusion of research undertaken to better understand the impact of the developing biobased economy on agricultural land markets. This has involved understanding the true dimension of the biobased economy, namely the large range of products for which a biobased component exists or could exist, and in this regard the likely evolution in the substitution of elements produced from fossil oil. This research is also a first step to determine whether the overall result of the development of the biobased economy will be positive, negative or neutral for the Dutch economy as a whole.

This article analyzes the consequences of enhanced biofuel demand in regions and countries of the world that have announced plans to implement or expand on biofuel policies. The analysis considers not only mandatory blending targets for transportation fuels, but also voluntary ones. The chosen quantitative modeling approach is two-fold: it combines a multi-sectoral economic model (LEITAP) with a spatial bio-physical land use model (IMAGE 2.4). This paper adds to existing research by considering biofuel policies in the EU, the US and various other countries with considerable agricultural production and trade, such as Brazil, India and China. Moreover, the combination of the two modeling systems allows for the observation of changes in both economic and bio-physical indicators. The results show that some indicators with high political relevance, such as agricultural prices and greenhouse gas emissions from land use, do not necessarily react proportionally to increasing demand for agricultural products from the biofuel sector. This finding should be considered when designing biofuel policies because these indicators are directly relevant for food security and climate change.

EURURALIS is developed for policy makers dealing with the future of agriculture and other land use in the enlarged Europe of 25 member states. Expecting that major developments affect the rural areas in Europe pro-active rural policy has to be informed timely and in a targeted and crispy way. A scenario study was launched that built upon : I) recognizable and internationally authorized scenarios encompassing drivers such as global developments like world trade, climate change, demography, II) predicted transformations in land use (area, regions, intensity), III) impacts on the various domains of sustainability (People, Planet, Profit) and IV) possibilities of policy instruments. The study builds upon IPCC and related scenarios, though adapted for our goals, a global economy model (GTAP/LEITAP) linked to an environmental model (IMAGE) and thirdly a land use allocation model (CLUE). Modelling outcomes were generated for 30 years in 10 year time steps; indicators were selected from economical, socio-cultural and environmental/ecological domains respectively. Meta-indicators were added to offer overview. The product is tuned to non-specialists and offers many graphs, maps and texts for easy use in policy, research and education. This background document aims not to deliver the contents of the CD Rom in a hard copy version, but focuses on policy context, leading concepts, methods and data. It also offers discussions on desired improvements and ways to expand the current 1.0 version.