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Project: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets - These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions and serves as resource for authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated on a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. Summary: These data include the subset used by IPCC AR6 WGI authors of the datasets originally published in ESGF for 'CMIP6.ScenarioMIP.IPSL.IPSL-CM6A-LR.ssp245' with the full Data Reference Syntax following the template 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The IPSL-CM6A-LR climate model, released in 2017, includes the following components: atmos: LMDZ (NPv6, N96; 144 x 143 longitude/latitude; 79 levels; top level 80000 m), land: ORCHIDEE (v2.0, Water/Carbon/Energy mode), ocean: NEMO-OPA (eORCA1.3, tripolar primarily 1deg; 362 x 332 longitude/latitude; 75 levels; top grid cell 0-2 m), ocnBgchem: NEMO-PISCES, seaIce: NEMO-LIM3. The model was run by the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Paris 75252, France (IPSL) in native nominal resolutions: atmos: 250 km, land: 250 km, ocean: 100 km, ocnBgchem: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km.

Project: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets - These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions and serves as resource for authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated on a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. Summary: These data include the subset used by IPCC AR6 WGI authors of the datasets originally published in ESGF for 'CMIP6.ScenarioMIP.IPSL.IPSL-CM5A2-INCA.ssp370' with the full Data Reference Syntax following the template 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The IPSL-CM5A2-INCA climate model, released in 2019, includes the following components: aerosol: INCA v6 NMHC-AER-S, atmos: LMDZ (APv5; 96 x 96 longitude/latitude; 39 levels; top level 80000 m), atmosChem: INCA v6 NMHC-AER-S, land: ORCHIDEE (IPSLCM5A2.1, Water/Carbon/Energy mode), ocean: NEMO-OPA (v3.6, ORCA2 tripolar primarily 2deg; 182 x 149 longitude/latitude; 31 levels; top grid cell 0-10 m), ocnBgchem: NEMO-PISCES, seaIce: NEMO-LIM2. The model was run by the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Paris 75252, France (IPSL) in native nominal resolutions: aerosol: 500 km, atmos: 500 km, atmosChem: 500 km, land: 500 km, ocean: 250 km, ocnBgchem: 250 km, seaIce: 250 km.

Project: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets - These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions and serves as resource for authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated on a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. Summary: These data include the subset used by IPCC AR6 WGI authors of the datasets originally published in ESGF for 'CMIP6.ScenarioMIP.IPSL.IPSL-CM5A2-INCA' with the full Data Reference Syntax following the template 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The IPSL-CM5A2-INCA climate model, released in 2019, includes the following components: aerosol: INCA v6 NMHC-AER-S, atmos: LMDZ (APv5; 96 x 96 longitude/latitude; 39 levels; top level 80000 m), atmosChem: INCA v6 NMHC-AER-S, land: ORCHIDEE (IPSLCM5A2.1, Water/Carbon/Energy mode), ocean: NEMO-OPA (v3.6, ORCA2 tripolar primarily 2deg; 182 x 149 longitude/latitude; 31 levels; top grid cell 0-10 m), ocnBgchem: NEMO-PISCES, seaIce: NEMO-LIM2. The model was run by the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Paris 75252, France (IPSL) in native nominal resolutions: aerosol: 500 km, atmos: 500 km, atmosChem: 500 km, land: 500 km, ocean: 250 km, ocnBgchem: 250 km, seaIce: 250 km.

Project: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets - These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions and serves as resource for authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated on a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. Summary: These data include the subset used by IPCC AR6 WGI authors of the datasets originally published in ESGF for 'CMIP6.LS3MIP.IPSL.IPSL-CM6A-LR' with the full Data Reference Syntax following the template 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The IPSL-CM6A-LR climate model, released in 2017, includes the following components: atmos: LMDZ (NPv6, N96; 144 x 143 longitude/latitude; 79 levels; top level 80000 m), land: ORCHIDEE (v2.0, Water/Carbon/Energy mode), ocean: NEMO-OPA (eORCA1.3, tripolar primarily 1deg; 362 x 332 longitude/latitude; 75 levels; top grid cell 0-2 m), ocnBgchem: NEMO-PISCES, seaIce: NEMO-LIM3. The model was run by the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Paris 75252, France (IPSL) in native nominal resolutions: atmos: 250 km, land: 250 km, ocean: 100 km, ocnBgchem: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km.

Future climate change and increasing atmospheric CO 2 are expected to cause major changes in vegetation structure and function over large fractions of the global land surface. Seven global vegetation models are used to analyze possible responses to future climate simulated by a range of general circulation models run under all four representative concentration pathway scenarios of changing concentrations of greenhouse gases. All 110 simulations predict an increase in global vegetation carbon to 2100, but with substantial variation between vegetation models. For example, at 4 °C of global land surface warming (510–758 ppm of CO 2 ), vegetation carbon increases by 52–477 Pg C (224 Pg C mean), mainly due to CO 2 fertilization of photosynthesis. Simulations agree on large regional increases across much of the boreal forest, western Amazonia, central Africa, western China, and southeast Asia, with reductions across southwestern North America, central South America, southern Mediterranean areas, southwestern Africa, and southwestern Australia. Four vegetation models display discontinuities across 4 °C of warming, indicating global thresholds in the balance of positive and negative influences on productivity and biomass. In contrast to previous global vegetation model studies, we emphasize the importance of uncertainties in projected changes in carbon residence times. We find, when all seven models are considered for one representative concentration pathway × general circulation model combination, such uncertainties explain 30% more variation in modeled vegetation carbon change than responses of net primary productivity alone, increasing to 151% for non-HYBRID4 models. A change in research priorities away from production and toward structural dynamics and demographic processes is recommended.

Climate change may pose a high risk of change to Earth’s ecosystems: shifting climatic boundaries may induce changes in the biogeochemical functioning and structures of ecosystems that render it difficult for endemic plant and animal species to survive in their current habitats. Here we aggregate changes in the biogeochemical ecosystem state as a proxy for the risk of these shifts at different levels of global warming. Estimates are based on simulations from seven global vegetation models (GVMs) driven by future climate scenarios, allowing for a quantification of the related uncertainties. 5–19% of the naturally vegetated land surface is projected to be at risk of severe ecosystem change at 2 ° C of global warming (ΔGMT) above 1980–2010 levels. However, there is limited agreement across the models about which geographical regions face the highest risk of change. The extent of regions at risk of severe ecosystem change is projected to rise with ΔGMT, approximately doubling between ΔGMT = 2 and 3 ° C, and reaching a median value of 35% of the naturally vegetated land surface for ΔGMT = 4 °C. The regions projected to face the highest risk of severe ecosystem changes above ΔGMT = 4 °C or earlier include the tundra and shrublands of the Tibetan Plateau, grasslands of eastern India, the boreal forests of northern Canada and Russia, the savanna region in the Horn of Africa, and the Amazon rainforest.

Project: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets - These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions and serves as resource for authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated on a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. Summary: These data include the subset used by IPCC AR6 WGI authors of the datasets originally published in ESGF for 'CMIP6.CMIP.IPSL.IPSL-CM6A-LR.historical' with the full Data Reference Syntax following the template 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The IPSL-CM6A-LR climate model, released in 2017, includes the following components: atmos: LMDZ (NPv6, N96; 144 x 143 longitude/latitude; 79 levels; top level 80000 m), land: ORCHIDEE (v2.0, Water/Carbon/Energy mode), ocean: NEMO-OPA (eORCA1.3, tripolar primarily 1deg; 362 x 332 longitude/latitude; 75 levels; top grid cell 0-2 m), ocnBgchem: NEMO-PISCES, seaIce: NEMO-LIM3. The model was run by the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Paris 75252, France (IPSL) in native nominal resolutions: atmos: 250 km, land: 250 km, ocean: 100 km, ocnBgchem: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km.