• Energy Research

This study is a response to the current long-term policy effort aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions from aviation. It explores the short-term feasibility of servicing medium and long-haul commercial air routes with fully electric, zero-emission aircraft. The focus on long-haul flights reflects our understanding of the high levels of emissions associated with these routes. The analysis applies technical details of current electric aircraft development to the conditions faced by 183 long-haul over-water inter-city air routes. It also investigates the effect of future technical developments in battery power. Three scenarios of battery development illustrate how new electric aviation routes might evolve over time. Results show that, as expected, with current electric aircraft technology, most of the routes are more complex, slower, and more expensive than today's services. However, a significant number of simulated routes appear to be competitive in terms of fares with the current non-stop services. Furthermore, the simulations reflect conditions that existed in the early development of aviation and show that the expected evolution of batteries could increase the number of long-haul routes potentially served with electric aircraft. The study concludes that the immediate future of electric aviation might lie in selected, long-haul routes with low geophysical complexity and suggests that the methodology developed here could be used to evaluate proposals for services, some of which could be directed at smaller and remote locations.

In recent years, a ban on short-haul flights for which alternative, more environmentally friendly transportation is available has been on European regulatory agendas, particularly in countries like Germany, with its well-developed high-speed rail (HSR) and a dense network of low-cost, point-to-point airline traffic. This study aims to quantify the potential impact on CO2 emissions of substituting short-haul flights with rail frequencies in 87 German air travel corridors. Using OAG data on passenger bookings and airline schedules for 2019, as well as current rail travel times, we determine the target flights by looking at the actual proportion of connecting passengers per frequency. We estimate a potential reduction in CO2 emissions of between 2.7% and 22%, depending on how strict the flight substitution is. However, the social benefits of those carbon emissions might fall short of the travel time losses experienced by the passengers. Increased investment to improve rail speeds and intermodal accessibility appears necessary before the substitution policies can be implemented.