• Energy Research

As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071-2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the detection of ecological responses under climate change scenarios.

As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071-2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the detection of ecological responses under climate change scenarios.

Water availability controls the functioning of dryland ecosystems, driving a patchy vegetation distribution, unequal nutrient availability, soil respiration in pulses, and limited productivity. Groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs) are acknowledged to be decoupled from precipitation, since their vegetation relies on groundwater sources. Despite their relevance to enhance productivity in drylands, our understanding of how different components of GDEs interconnect (i.e., soil, vegetation, water) remains limited. We studied the GDE dominated by the deep-rooted phreatophyte Ziziphus lotus, a winter-deciduous shrub adapted to arid conditions along the Mediterranean basin. We aimed to disentangle whether the groundwater connection established by Z. lotus will foster soil biological activity and therefore soil fertility in drylands. We assessed (1) soil and vegetation dynamics over seasons (soil CO2 efflux and plant activity), (2) the effect of the patchy distribution on soil quality (properties and nutrient availability), and soil biological activity (microbial biomass and mineralization rates) as essential elements of biogeochemical cycles, and (3) the implications for preserving GDEs and their biogeochemical processes under climate change effects. We found that soil and vegetation dynamics respond to water availability. Whereas soil biological activity promptly responded to precipitation events, vegetation functioning relies on less superficial water and responded on different time scales. Soil quality was higher under the vegetation patches, as was soil biological activity. Our findings highlight the importance of groundwater connections and phreatophytic vegetation to increase litter inputs and organic matter into the soils, which in turn enhances soil quality and decomposition processes in drylands. However, biogeochemical processes are jeopardized in GDEs by climate change effects and land degradation due to the dependence of soil activity on: (1) precipitation for activation, and (2) phreatophytic vegetation for substrate accumulation. Therefore, desertification might modify biogeochemical cycles by disrupting key ecosystem processes such as soil microbial activity, organic matter mineralization, and plant productivity.

Water availability controls the functioning of dryland ecosystems, driving a patchy vegetation distribution, unequal nutrient availability, soil respiration in pulses, and limited productivity. Groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs) are acknowledged to be decoupled from precipitation, since their vegetation relies on groundwater sources. Despite their relevance to enhance productivity in drylands, our understanding of how different components of GDEs interconnect (i.e., soil, vegetation, water) remains limited. We studied the GDE dominated by the deep-rooted phreatophyte Ziziphus lotus, a winter-deciduous shrub adapted to arid conditions along the Mediterranean basin. We aimed to disentangle whether the groundwater connection established by Z. lotus will foster soil biological activity and therefore soil fertility in drylands. We assessed (1) soil and vegetation dynamics over seasons (soil CO2 efflux and plant activity), (2) the effect of the patchy distribution on soil quality (properties and nutrient availability), and soil biological activity (microbial biomass and mineralization rates) as essential elements of biogeochemical cycles, and (3) the implications for preserving GDEs and their biogeochemical processes under climate change effects. We found that soil and vegetation dynamics respond to water availability. Whereas soil biological activity promptly responded to precipitation events, vegetation functioning relies on less superficial water and responded on different time scales. Soil quality was higher under the vegetation patches, as was soil biological activity. Our findings highlight the importance of groundwater connections and phreatophytic vegetation to increase litter inputs and organic matter into the soils, which in turn enhances soil quality and decomposition processes in drylands. However, biogeochemical processes are jeopardized in GDEs by climate change effects and land degradation due to the dependence of soil activity on: (1) precipitation for activation, and (2) phreatophytic vegetation for substrate accumulation. Therefore, desertification might modify biogeochemical cycles by disrupting key ecosystem processes such as soil microbial activity, organic matter mineralization, and plant productivity.

AbstractWater is the main limiting factor for groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs) in drylands. Predicted climate change (precipitation reductions and temperature increases) and anthropogenic activities such as groundwater drawdown jeopardise the functioning of these ecosystems, presenting new challenges for their management. We developed a trait-based analysis to examine the spatiotemporal variability in the ecophysiology of Ziziphus lotus, a long-lived phreatophyte that dominates one of the few terrestrial GDEs of semiarid regions in Europe. We assessed morpho-functional traits and stem water potential along a naturally occurring gradient of depth-to-groundwater (DTGW, 2–25 m) in a coastal aquifer, and throughout the species-growing season. Increasing DTGW and salinity negatively affected photosynthetic and transpiration rates, increasing plant water stress (lower predawn and midday water potential), and positively affected Huber value (sapwood cross-sectional area per leaf area), reducing leaf area and likely, plant hydraulic demand. However, the species showed greater salt-tolerance at shallow depths. Despite groundwater characteristics, higher atmospheric evaporative demand in the study area, which occurred in summer, fostered higher transpiration rates and water stress, and promoted carbon assimilation and water loss more intensively at shallow water tables. This multiple-trait analysis allowed us to identify plant ecophysiological thresholds related to the increase in salinity, but mostly in DTGW (13 m), and in the evaporative demand during the growing season. These findings highlight the existence of tipping points in the functioning of a long-lived phreatophyte in drylands and can contribute to the sustainable management of GDEs in southern Europe, paving the way for further studies on phreatophytic species.

AbstractWater is the main limiting factor for groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs) in drylands. Predicted climate change (precipitation reductions and temperature increases) and anthropogenic activities such as groundwater drawdown jeopardise the functioning of these ecosystems, presenting new challenges for their management. We developed a trait-based analysis to examine the spatiotemporal variability in the ecophysiology of Ziziphus lotus, a long-lived phreatophyte that dominates one of the few terrestrial GDEs of semiarid regions in Europe. We assessed morpho-functional traits and stem water potential along a naturally occurring gradient of depth-to-groundwater (DTGW, 2–25 m) in a coastal aquifer, and throughout the species-growing season. Increasing DTGW and salinity negatively affected photosynthetic and transpiration rates, increasing plant water stress (lower predawn and midday water potential), and positively affected Huber value (sapwood cross-sectional area per leaf area), reducing leaf area and likely, plant hydraulic demand. However, the species showed greater salt-tolerance at shallow depths. Despite groundwater characteristics, higher atmospheric evaporative demand in the study area, which occurred in summer, fostered higher transpiration rates and water stress, and promoted carbon assimilation and water loss more intensively at shallow water tables. This multiple-trait analysis allowed us to identify plant ecophysiological thresholds related to the increase in salinity, but mostly in DTGW (13 m), and in the evaporative demand during the growing season. These findings highlight the existence of tipping points in the functioning of a long-lived phreatophyte in drylands and can contribute to the sustainable management of GDEs in southern Europe, paving the way for further studies on phreatophytic species.