• Energy Research

Low or zero carbon fuels are crucial for maritime transportation decarbonization goals. This paper assesses potential localities for maritime biofuels (biobunkers) production in Brazil, Europe, South Africa, and United States considering geographical, logistic, and economic aspects. This assessment combines georeferenced and techno-economic analyses to identify suitable fuel production hotspots based on not only plant performance and costs but also on logistic integration and biomass seasonality. Five technology pathways were considered: Straight vegetable Oils (SVO), Hydrotreated Vegetable Oils (HVO), Fischer–Tropsch Biomass-to-liquids (FT-BTL), Alcohol oligomerization to middle distillates (ATD), and Hydrotreated Pyrolysis Oil (HDPO). Findings reveal that biomass concentration in Brazil makes it the region with highest biobunker potential, which are mostly close to coastal areas and surpasses regional demand. Although other regions registered more limited potentials, hotspots proximity to ports would enable fossil fuel replacements in these areas. For all cases, biobunker costs (USD 21–104/GJ) are higher than conventional marine fuels prices (USD 11–17/GJ). Only 15% of the hotspots’ carbon prices that would allow its competitiveness are lower than USD 100/tCO2. Alternatives to incentivize biobunker production would be, first, to establish mandatory fuel blends and second, to join forces with other sectors that would be benefited from the co-production of advanced biofuels.

Low or zero carbon fuels are crucial for maritime transportation decarbonization goals. This paper assesses potential localities for maritime biofuels (biobunkers) production in Brazil, Europe, South Africa, and United States considering geographical, logistic, and economic aspects. This assessment combines georeferenced and techno-economic analyses to identify suitable fuel production hotspots based on not only plant performance and costs but also on logistic integration and biomass seasonality. Five technology pathways were considered: Straight vegetable Oils (SVO), Hydrotreated Vegetable Oils (HVO), Fischer–Tropsch Biomass-to-liquids (FT-BTL), Alcohol oligomerization to middle distillates (ATD), and Hydrotreated Pyrolysis Oil (HDPO). Findings reveal that biomass concentration in Brazil makes it the region with highest biobunker potential, which are mostly close to coastal areas and surpasses regional demand. Although other regions registered more limited potentials, hotspots proximity to ports would enable fossil fuel replacements in these areas. For all cases, biobunker costs (USD 21–104/GJ) are higher than conventional marine fuels prices (USD 11–17/GJ). Only 15% of the hotspots’ carbon prices that would allow its competitiveness are lower than USD 100/tCO2. Alternatives to incentivize biobunker production would be, first, to establish mandatory fuel blends and second, to join forces with other sectors that would be benefited from the co-production of advanced biofuels.

Technological development is key for national strategies to cope with the Paris Agreement's goals. Technology Needs Assessments (TNAs) aim to identify, prioritize, and diffuse climate change mitigation and/or adaptation technologies in developing countries. Their methodology includes a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework but, although many countries already conducted a TNA, literature lacks discussions on country-specific processes for a TNA, as it usually follows a one-size-fits-all approach. This paper provides empirical evidence on the importance of country-driven processes that help shaping international programmes into country-specific needs and capabilities. It presents lessons learned from a tailored process for identification, prioritization, and selection of mitigation technologies in the scope of a TNA project for Brazil, an exceptional case of a developing country with strong capacity in integrated assessment modelling (IAM) scenarios for guiding its climate strategies. A previous IAM scenario result allowed pre-selecting technologies in six key economic sectors, while other TNAs prioritized no more than three. This allowed the elaboration of an overall ranking from the MCDA, in contrast to sectoral rankings that are mostly employed in other countries' TNAs. The overall ranking serves not only as a basis for the selection of priority technologies but also provides information on the integrated innovations framework for climate technologies in the country. Further specific findings of the tailored Brazilian TNA approach are discussed in the paper in order to call for the importance that a technology transfer project should not only be country-driven but also conducted through a country-specific process.The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11027-022-10025-6.

Technological development is key for national strategies to cope with the Paris Agreement's goals. Technology Needs Assessments (TNAs) aim to identify, prioritize, and diffuse climate change mitigation and/or adaptation technologies in developing countries. Their methodology includes a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework but, although many countries already conducted a TNA, literature lacks discussions on country-specific processes for a TNA, as it usually follows a one-size-fits-all approach. This paper provides empirical evidence on the importance of country-driven processes that help shaping international programmes into country-specific needs and capabilities. It presents lessons learned from a tailored process for identification, prioritization, and selection of mitigation technologies in the scope of a TNA project for Brazil, an exceptional case of a developing country with strong capacity in integrated assessment modelling (IAM) scenarios for guiding its climate strategies. A previous IAM scenario result allowed pre-selecting technologies in six key economic sectors, while other TNAs prioritized no more than three. This allowed the elaboration of an overall ranking from the MCDA, in contrast to sectoral rankings that are mostly employed in other countries' TNAs. The overall ranking serves not only as a basis for the selection of priority technologies but also provides information on the integrated innovations framework for climate technologies in the country. Further specific findings of the tailored Brazilian TNA approach are discussed in the paper in order to call for the importance that a technology transfer project should not only be country-driven but also conducted through a country-specific process.The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11027-022-10025-6.