• Energy Research

Abstract The stratified nature of tropical forest structure had been noted by early explorers, but until recent use of satellite-based LiDAR (GEDI, or Global Ecosystems Dynamics Investigation LiDAR), it was not possible to quantify stratification across all tropical forests. Understanding stratification is important because by some estimates, a majority of the world’s species inhabit tropical forest canopies. Stratification can modify vertical microenvironment, and thus can affect a species’ susceptibility to anthropogenic climate change. Here we find that, based on analyzing each GEDI 25 m diameter footprint in tropical forests (after screening for human impact), most footprints (60%–90%) do not have multiple layers of vegetation. The most common forest structure has a minimum plant area index (PAI) at ∼40 m followed by an increase in PAI until ∼15 m followed by a decline in PAI to the ground layer (described hereafter as a one peak footprint). There are large geographic patterns to forest structure within the Amazon basin (ranging between 60% and 90% one peak) and between the Amazon (79 ± 9% sd) and SE Asia or Africa (72 ± 14% v 73 ± 11%). The number of canopy layers is significantly correlated with tree height (r 2 = 0.12) and forest biomass (r 2 = 0.14). Environmental variables such as maximum temperature (T max) (r 2 = 0.05), vapor pressure deficit (VPD) (r 2 = 0.03) and soil fertility proxies (e.g. total cation exchange capacity −r 2 = 0.01) were also statistically significant but less strongly correlated given the complex and heterogeneous local structural to regional climatic interactions. Certain boundaries, like the Pebas Formation and Ecoregions, clearly delineate continental scale structural changes. More broadly, deviation from more ideal conditions (e.g. lower fertility or higher temperatures) leads to shorter, less stratified forests with lower biomass.

AbstractVegetation in tropical Asia is highly diverse due to large environmental gradients and heterogeneity of landscapes. This biodiversity is threatened by intense land use and climate change. However, despite the rich biodiversity and the dense human population, tropical Asia is often underrepresented in global biodiversity assessments. Understanding how climate change influences the remaining areas of natural vegetation is therefore highly important for conservation planning. Here, we used the adaptive Dynamic Global Vegetation Model version 2 (aDGVM2) to simulate impacts of climate change and elevated CO2 on vegetation formations in tropical Asia for an ensemble of climate change scenarios. We used climate forcing from five different climate models for representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We found that vegetation in tropical Asia will remain a carbon sink until 2099, and that vegetation biomass increases of up to 28% by 2099 are associated with transitions from small to tall woody vegetation and from deciduous to evergreen vegetation. Patterns of phenology were less responsive to climate change and elevated CO2 than biomes and biomass, indicating that the selection of variables and methods used to detect vegetation changes is crucial. Model simulations revealed substantial variation within the ensemble, both in biomass increases and in distributions of different biome types. Our results have important implications for management policy, because they suggest that large ensembles of climate models and scenarios are required to assess a wide range of potential future trajectories of vegetation change and to develop robust management plans. Furthermore, our results highlight open ecosystems with low tree cover as most threatened by climate change, indicating potential conflicts of interest between biodiversity conservation in open ecosystems and active afforestation to enhance carbon sequestration.

The stratified nature of tropical forest structure had been noted by early explorers, but until recent use of satellite-based LiDAR (GEDI, or Global Ecosystems Dynamics Investigation LiDAR), it was not possible to quantify stratification across all tropical forests. Understanding stratification is important because by some estimates, a majority of the world’s species inhabit tropical forest canopies. Stratification can modify vertical microenvironment, and thus can affect a species’ susceptibility to anthropogenic climate change. Here we find that, based on analyzing each GEDI 25m diameter footprint in tropical forests (after screening for human impact), most footprints (60-90%) do not have multiple layers of vegetation. The most common forest structure has a minimum plant area index (PAI) at ~40m followed by an increase in PAI until ~15m followed by a decline in PAI to the ground layer (described hereafter as a one peak footprint). There are large geographic patterns to forest structure within the Amazon basin (ranging between 60–90% one peak) and between the Amazon (79 ± 9 % sd) and SE Asia or Africa (72 ± 14 % v 73 ±11 %). The number of canopy layers is significantly correlated with tree height (r2=0.12) and forest biomass (r2=0.14). Environmental variables such as maximum temperature (Tmax) (r2=0.05), vapor pressure deficit (VPD) (r2=0.03) and soil fertility proxies (e.g. total cation exchange capacity - r2=0.01) were also statistically significant but less strongly correlated given the complex and heterogeneous local structural to regional climatic interactions. Certain boundaries, like the Pebas Formation and Ecoregions, clearly delineate continental scale structural changes. More broadly, deviation from more ideal conditions (e.g. lower fertility or higher temperatures) leads to shorter, less stratified forests with lower biomass.